Title: Machine learning prediction of incidence of Alzheimer’s disease using large-scale administrative health data

Abstract

Nationwide population-based cohort provides a new opportunity to build an automated risk prediction model based on individuals’ history of health and healthcare beyond existing risk prediction models. We tested the possibility of machine learning models to predict future incidence of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) using large-scale administrative health data. From the Korean National Health Insurance Service database between 2002 and 2010, we obtained de-identified health data in elders above 65 years (N = 40,736) containing 4,894 unique clinical features including ICD-10 codes, medication codes, laboratory values, history of personal and family illness and socio-demographics. To define incident AD we considered two operational definitions: “definite AD” with diagnostic codes and dementia medication (n = 614) and “probable AD” with only diagnosis (n = 2026). We trained and validated random forest, support vector machine and logistic regression to predict incident AD in 1, 2, 3, and 4 subsequent years. For predicting future incidence of AD in balanced samples (bootstrapping), the machine learning models showed reasonable performance in 1-year prediction with AUC of 0.775 and 0.759, based on “definite AD” and “probable AD” outcomes, respectively; in 2-year, 0.730 and 0.693; in 3-year, 0.677 and 0.644; in 4-year, 0.725 and 0.683. The results were similarmore » when the entire (unbalanced) samples were used. Important clinical features selected in logistic regression included hemoglobin level, age and urine protein level. This study may shed a light on the utility of the data-driven machine learning model based on large-scale administrative health data in AD risk prediction, which may enable better selection of individuals at risk for AD in clinical trials or early detection in clinical settings.« less

Authors:

Park, Ji Hwan ^[1]; Cho, Han Eol  ^[2];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0001-5625-3013"

Kim, Jong Hun ^[3]; Wall, Melanie M. ^[4]; Stern, Yaakov ^[4]; Lim, Hyunsun ^[3]; Yoo, Shinjae ^[1]; Kim, Hyoung Seop  ^[3];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-5310-4802"

Cha, Jiook  ^[5]

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-5314-7992"

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)
2. Yonsei Univ. College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea)
3. National Health Insurance Service Ilsan Hospital, Goyang (Korea)
4. Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
5. Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); Seoul National Univ. (Korea)

Publication Date:

Thu Mar 26 00:00:00 EDT 2020

Research Org.:

Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE Office of Science (SC), Advanced Scientific Computing Research (SC-21); Seoul National University; NHS Ilsan Hospital Research Support Program; National Institutes of Health (NIH); Brain Behavior Research Foundation Young Investigator Award; Korean Scientists and Engineers Association Young Investigator Grant; National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF); Ministry of Science

OSTI Identifier:

1618403

Report Number(s):

BNL-215918-2020-JAAM
Journal ID: ISSN 2398-6352

Grant/Contract Number:  

SC0012704; K01-MH109836

Resource Type:

Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

npj Digital Medicine

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Volume: 3; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2398-6352

Publisher:

Springer Nature

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING; Alzheimer's disease; predictive markers