Alaska Daily Extreme Precipitation Processes in a Subset of CMIP5 Global Climate Models
Abstract
We analyze physical processes leading to daily wintertime (December, January, and February) extreme precipitation events in Alaska between 1986 and 2005. This is done by applying self-organizing maps to environmental conditions corresponding to National Centers for Environmental Information precipitation, using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate selected Global climate model (GCM; selected GCMs). We focus on widespread extreme events, defined as the top 0.1% of daily precipitation occurring on at least six grid boxes on the same day. The self-organizing maps methodology allows identifying large-scale circulations conducive to extreme events. This methodology identifies distinctive circulation patterns conducive to producing extreme events with a trough west of Alaska leading to south or southwest flow across the state. Extreme events occur along the windward (southern) side of the Alaska Range due to uplift by the mountains in the ERA-Interim and in all models. In the National Centers for Environmental Information observations, precipitation rates are greater than in any of the selected GCMs. Simulated extreme precipitation decreases as model resolution decreases, and our study suggests that the smoothness of model topography is a reason for the scaling between model precipitation ratemore »
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
[2]
- Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States); Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)
- Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1609951
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1510104
- Grant/Contract Number:
- FG02-07ER64463; SC0016438; ARC-1023369
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 124; Journal Issue: 8; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-897X
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CHEMISTRY; self‐organizing maps; precipitation; daily extremes; GCMS; CMIP5; topography
Citation Formats
Smalley, Kevin M., Glisan, Justin M., and Gutowski, William J. Alaska Daily Extreme Precipitation Processes in a Subset of CMIP5 Global Climate Models. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1029/2018jd028643.
Smalley, Kevin M., Glisan, Justin M., & Gutowski, William J. Alaska Daily Extreme Precipitation Processes in a Subset of CMIP5 Global Climate Models. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jd028643
Smalley, Kevin M., Glisan, Justin M., and Gutowski, William J. Mon .
"Alaska Daily Extreme Precipitation Processes in a Subset of CMIP5 Global Climate Models". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jd028643. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1609951.
@article{osti_1609951,
title = {Alaska Daily Extreme Precipitation Processes in a Subset of CMIP5 Global Climate Models},
author = {Smalley, Kevin M. and Glisan, Justin M. and Gutowski, William J.},
abstractNote = {We analyze physical processes leading to daily wintertime (December, January, and February) extreme precipitation events in Alaska between 1986 and 2005. This is done by applying self-organizing maps to environmental conditions corresponding to National Centers for Environmental Information precipitation, using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate selected Global climate model (GCM; selected GCMs). We focus on widespread extreme events, defined as the top 0.1% of daily precipitation occurring on at least six grid boxes on the same day. The self-organizing maps methodology allows identifying large-scale circulations conducive to extreme events. This methodology identifies distinctive circulation patterns conducive to producing extreme events with a trough west of Alaska leading to south or southwest flow across the state. Extreme events occur along the windward (southern) side of the Alaska Range due to uplift by the mountains in the ERA-Interim and in all models. In the National Centers for Environmental Information observations, precipitation rates are greater than in any of the selected GCMs. Simulated extreme precipitation decreases as model resolution decreases, and our study suggests that the smoothness of model topography is a reason for the scaling between model precipitation rate and model resolution.},
doi = {10.1029/2018jd028643},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = 8,
volume = 124,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Apr 08 00:00:00 EDT 2019},
month = {Mon Apr 08 00:00:00 EDT 2019}
}
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