Health co-benefits and mitigation costs as per the Paris Agreement under different technological pathways for energy supply

Sampedro Martinez de Estivariz, Jon; Smith, Steven J.; Arto, Iñaki; Gonzalez-Eguino, Mikel; Markandya, Anil; Mulvaney, Kathleen M.; Pizarro-Irizar, Cristina; van Dingenen, Rita

doi:10.1016/j.envint.2020.105513

Title: Health co-benefits and mitigation costs as per the Paris Agreement under different technological pathways for energy supply

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Abstract

This study assesses the reductions in air pollution emissions and subsequent beneficial health effects from different global mitigation pathways consistent with the 2 °C stabilization objective of the Paris Agreement. We use an integrated modelling framework, demonstrating the need for models with an appropriate level of technology detail for an accurate co-benefit assessment. The framework combines an integrated assessment model (GCAM) with an air quality model (TM5-FASST) to obtain estimates of premature mortality and then assesses their economic cost. The results show that significant co-benefits can be found for a range of technological options, such as introducing a limitation on bioenergy, carbon capture and storage (CCS) or nuclear power. Cumulative premature mortality may be reduced by 17–23% by 2020–2050 compared to the baseline, depending on the scenarios. However, the ratio of health co-benefits to mitigation costs varies substantially, ranging from 1.45 when a bioenergy limitation is set to 2.19 when all technologies are available. As for regional disaggregation, some regions, such as India and China, obtain far greater co-benefits than others.

Authors:

Sampedro Martinez de Estivariz, Jon ^[1];

^[2]; Arto, Iñaki ^[3]; Gonzalez-Eguino, Mikel ^[3]; Markandya, Anil ^[3]; Mulvaney, Kathleen M. ^[4]; Pizarro-Irizar, Cristina ^[3]; van Dingenen, Rita ^[5]

Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.; Univ. of the Basque Country, Donostia (Spain)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.
Univ. of the Basque Country, Donostia (Spain)
Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States)
European Commission, Ispra (Italy). Joint Research Centre

Publication Date:: Wed Jan 29 00:00:00 EST 2020

Research Org.:: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE

OSTI Identifier:: 1599855

Report Number(s):: PNNL-ACT-SA-10474
Journal ID: ISSN 0160-4120

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Environment International

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 136; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0160-4120

Publisher:: Elsevier

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Deep decarbonization; Air pollution; Health; Co-benefits; Integrated assessment

Citation Formats


                    Sampedro Martinez de Estivariz, Jon, Smith, Steven J., Arto, Iñaki, Gonzalez-Eguino, Mikel, Markandya, Anil, Mulvaney, Kathleen M., Pizarro-Irizar, Cristina, and van Dingenen, Rita. Health co-benefits and mitigation costs as per the Paris Agreement under different technological pathways for energy supply.  United States: N. p., 2020. 
Web.  doi:10.1016/j.envint.2020.105513.

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                    Sampedro Martinez de Estivariz, Jon, Smith, Steven J., Arto, Iñaki, Gonzalez-Eguino, Mikel, Markandya, Anil, Mulvaney, Kathleen M., Pizarro-Irizar, Cristina, & van Dingenen, Rita. Health co-benefits and mitigation costs as per the Paris Agreement under different technological pathways for energy supply.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2020.105513

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                    Sampedro Martinez de Estivariz, Jon, Smith, Steven J., Arto, Iñaki, Gonzalez-Eguino, Mikel, Markandya, Anil, Mulvaney, Kathleen M., Pizarro-Irizar, Cristina, and van Dingenen, Rita. Wed .  
"Health co-benefits and mitigation costs as per the Paris Agreement under different technological pathways for energy supply".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2020.105513.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1599855.

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@article{osti_1599855,

  title        = {Health co-benefits and mitigation costs as per the Paris Agreement under different technological pathways for energy supply},

  author       = {Sampedro Martinez de Estivariz, Jon and Smith, Steven J. and Arto, Iñaki and Gonzalez-Eguino, Mikel and Markandya, Anil and Mulvaney, Kathleen M. and Pizarro-Irizar, Cristina and van Dingenen, Rita},

  abstractNote = {This study assesses the reductions in air pollution emissions and subsequent beneficial health effects from different global mitigation pathways consistent with the 2 °C stabilization objective of the Paris Agreement. We use an integrated modelling framework, demonstrating the need for models with an appropriate level of technology detail for an accurate co-benefit assessment. The framework combines an integrated assessment model (GCAM) with an air quality model (TM5-FASST) to obtain estimates of premature mortality and then assesses their economic cost. The results show that significant co-benefits can be found for a range of technological options, such as introducing a limitation on bioenergy, carbon capture and storage (CCS) or nuclear power. Cumulative premature mortality may be reduced by 17–23% by 2020–2050 compared to the baseline, depending on the scenarios. However, the ratio of health co-benefits to mitigation costs varies substantially, ranging from 1.45 when a bioenergy limitation is set to 2.19 when all technologies are available. As for regional disaggregation, some regions, such as India and China, obtain far greater co-benefits than others.},

  doi          = {10.1016/j.envint.2020.105513},

  journal      = {Environment International},

  number       = C,

  volume       = 136,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Wed Jan 29 00:00:00 EST 2020},

  month        = {Wed Jan 29 00:00:00 EST 2020}

}

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