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Title: Climatology Explains Intermodel Spread in Tropical Upper Tropospheric Cloud and Relative Humidity Response to Greenhouse Warming

Abstract

The response of upper tropospheric clouds and relative humidity (RH) to warming is important to the overall sensitivity of the Earth to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Previous research has shown that changes in hydrologic fields should closely track rising isotherms in a warming climate. Here we show that the distribution of tropical clouds and RH in general circulation models is approximately constant under greenhouse warming when using temperature as a vertical coordinate. By assuming that these fields are an invariant function of atmospheric temperature and that temperature change follows a dilute moist adiabat, we are able to accurately predict cloud fraction and RH changes in the tropical upper troposphere (150–400 hPa) in 27 general circulation models. Our results indicate that intermodel spread in changes of tropical upper tropospheric clouds and RH is closely related to differences in model climatology and could be substantially reduced if model ensembles reliably reproduced observed climatologies.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore CA USA
  2. Department of GeosciencesPrinceton University Princeton NJ USA, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton NJ USA
  3. NASA Langley Research Center Hampton VA USA
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
OSTI Identifier:
1576041
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1576042; OSTI ID: 1592033
Report Number(s):
LLNL-JRNL-783140
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Grant/Contract Number:  
18-ERD-054; AC52-07NA27344; AGS‐1624881
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Volume: 46 Journal Issue: 22; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES

Citation Formats

Po‐Chedley, Stephen, Zelinka, Mark D., Jeevanjee, Nadir, Thorsen, Tyler J., and Santer, Benjamin D. Climatology Explains Intermodel Spread in Tropical Upper Tropospheric Cloud and Relative Humidity Response to Greenhouse Warming. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1029/2019GL084786.
Po‐Chedley, Stephen, Zelinka, Mark D., Jeevanjee, Nadir, Thorsen, Tyler J., & Santer, Benjamin D. Climatology Explains Intermodel Spread in Tropical Upper Tropospheric Cloud and Relative Humidity Response to Greenhouse Warming. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084786
Po‐Chedley, Stephen, Zelinka, Mark D., Jeevanjee, Nadir, Thorsen, Tyler J., and Santer, Benjamin D. Tue . "Climatology Explains Intermodel Spread in Tropical Upper Tropospheric Cloud and Relative Humidity Response to Greenhouse Warming". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084786.
@article{osti_1576041,
title = {Climatology Explains Intermodel Spread in Tropical Upper Tropospheric Cloud and Relative Humidity Response to Greenhouse Warming},
author = {Po‐Chedley, Stephen and Zelinka, Mark D. and Jeevanjee, Nadir and Thorsen, Tyler J. and Santer, Benjamin D.},
abstractNote = {The response of upper tropospheric clouds and relative humidity (RH) to warming is important to the overall sensitivity of the Earth to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Previous research has shown that changes in hydrologic fields should closely track rising isotherms in a warming climate. Here we show that the distribution of tropical clouds and RH in general circulation models is approximately constant under greenhouse warming when using temperature as a vertical coordinate. By assuming that these fields are an invariant function of atmospheric temperature and that temperature change follows a dilute moist adiabat, we are able to accurately predict cloud fraction and RH changes in the tropical upper troposphere (150–400 hPa) in 27 general circulation models. Our results indicate that intermodel spread in changes of tropical upper tropospheric clouds and RH is closely related to differences in model climatology and could be substantially reduced if model ensembles reliably reproduced observed climatologies.},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL084786},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 22,
volume = 46,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Nov 19 00:00:00 EST 2019},
month = {Tue Nov 19 00:00:00 EST 2019}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084786

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Cited by: 15 works
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