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Title: A framework for assessment of predictive capability maturity and its application in nuclear thermal hydraulics

Abstract

Here this work presents a formalized and computerized framework for the assessment of decision regarding the adequacy of a simulation tool for a nuclear reactor application. The decision regarding a code’s adequacy for an application is dependent on the assessment of different attributes that govern verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification of the code. In this work, the focus is on code validation. Therefore, the framework is developed and illustrated from the perspective of decision regarding the validation assessment of a code. Code validation assessment is performed based on the validation test results, data applicability, and process quality assurance factors. The process quality assurance factors warrant the trustworthiness of the evidence and help in checking people and process compliance with respect to the standard requirements. The proposed framework is developed using an argument modeling technique called Goal Structuring Notation (GSN). Goal structuring notation facilitates structural knowledge representation, information abstraction, evidence incorporation, and provides a skeletal structure for quantitative maturity assessment. The decision schema for the development of the decision model is based on the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and formalized using Goal structuring notation. Each decision attribute is formulated as a claim, where the degreemore » of validity of the claim (attribute’s assessment) is expressed using different maturity levels. The GSN representation of the decision model is transformed into a confidence network to provide evidence-based quantitative maturity assessment using the Bayesian network. A metric based on the expected utility of maturity levels, called expected distance metric, is proposed to measure the distance between target maturity and achieved maturity on a scale of zero to one. Expected distance metric helps in comparing the assessment of different attributes and identification of major areas of concern in terms of modeling capability, data needs, and quality of assessment process. The practical application of the framework is demonstrated by a case study on validation assessment of a thermal-hydraulic code for a challenge problem called Departure from Nucleate Boiling (DNB).« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [1]
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  1. North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Nuclear Energy (NE); USDOE Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Nuclear Energy University Program (NEUP)
OSTI Identifier:
1801234
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1557878
Grant/Contract Number:  
NE0008530; AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Nuclear Engineering and Design
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 354; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0029-5493
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
42 ENGINEERING; maturity assessment; argumentation; Bayesian network; thermal-hydraulics; decision analysis; goal structuring notation

Citation Formats

Athe, Paridhi, and Dinh, Nam. A framework for assessment of predictive capability maturity and its application in nuclear thermal hydraulics. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1016/j.nucengdes.2019.110201.
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Athe, Paridhi, & Dinh, Nam. A framework for assessment of predictive capability maturity and its application in nuclear thermal hydraulics. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nucengdes.2019.110201
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Athe, Paridhi, and Dinh, Nam. Sat . "A framework for assessment of predictive capability maturity and its application in nuclear thermal hydraulics". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nucengdes.2019.110201. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1801234.
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@article{osti_1801234,
title = {A framework for assessment of predictive capability maturity and its application in nuclear thermal hydraulics},
author = {Athe, Paridhi and Dinh, Nam},
abstractNote = {Here this work presents a formalized and computerized framework for the assessment of decision regarding the adequacy of a simulation tool for a nuclear reactor application. The decision regarding a code’s adequacy for an application is dependent on the assessment of different attributes that govern verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification of the code. In this work, the focus is on code validation. Therefore, the framework is developed and illustrated from the perspective of decision regarding the validation assessment of a code. Code validation assessment is performed based on the validation test results, data applicability, and process quality assurance factors. The process quality assurance factors warrant the trustworthiness of the evidence and help in checking people and process compliance with respect to the standard requirements. The proposed framework is developed using an argument modeling technique called Goal Structuring Notation (GSN). Goal structuring notation facilitates structural knowledge representation, information abstraction, evidence incorporation, and provides a skeletal structure for quantitative maturity assessment. The decision schema for the development of the decision model is based on the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and formalized using Goal structuring notation. Each decision attribute is formulated as a claim, where the degree of validity of the claim (attribute’s assessment) is expressed using different maturity levels. The GSN representation of the decision model is transformed into a confidence network to provide evidence-based quantitative maturity assessment using the Bayesian network. A metric based on the expected utility of maturity levels, called expected distance metric, is proposed to measure the distance between target maturity and achieved maturity on a scale of zero to one. Expected distance metric helps in comparing the assessment of different attributes and identification of major areas of concern in terms of modeling capability, data needs, and quality of assessment process. The practical application of the framework is demonstrated by a case study on validation assessment of a thermal-hydraulic code for a challenge problem called Departure from Nucleate Boiling (DNB).},
doi = {10.1016/j.nucengdes.2019.110201},
journal = {Nuclear Engineering and Design},
number = C,
volume = 354,
place = {United States},
year = {Sat Aug 10 00:00:00 EDT 2019},
month = {Sat Aug 10 00:00:00 EDT 2019}
}
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nucengdes.2019.110201
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