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Title: Vegetation Functional Properties Determine Uncertainty of Simulated Ecosystem Productivity: A Traceability Analysis in the East Asian Monsoon Region

Abstract

Global and regional projections of climate change by Earth system models are limited by their uncertain estimates of terrestrial ecosystem productivity. At the middle to low latitudes, the East Asian monsoon region has higher productivity than forests in Europe–Africa and North America, but its estimate by current generation of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) has seldom been systematically evaluated. Here, we developed a traceability framework to evaluate the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) by 15 TBMs in the East Asian monsoon region. The framework links GPP to net primary productivity, biomass, leaf area and back to GPP via incorporating multiple vegetation functional properties of carbon–use efficiency (CUE), vegetation C turnover time (τveg), leaf C fraction (Fleaf), specific leaf area (SLA), and leaf area index (LAI)–level photosynthesis (PLAI), respectively. We then applied a relative importance algorithm to attribute intermodel variation at each node. The results showed that large intermodel variation in GPP over 1901–2010 were mainly propagated from their different representation of vegetation functional properties. For example, SLA explained 77% of the intermodel difference in leaf area, which contributed 90% to the simulated GPP differences. In addition, the models simulated higher CUE (18.1 ± 21.3%), τveg (18.2 ± 26.9%), and SLA (27.4±36.5%)more » than observations, leading to the overestimation of simulated GPP across the East Asian monsoon region. Furthermore, these results suggest the large uncertainty of current TBMs in simulating GPP is largely propagated from their poor representation of the vegetation functional properties and call for a better understanding of the covariations between plant functional properties in terrestrial ecosystems.« less

Authors:
 [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [6]; ORCiD logo [7]; ORCiD logo [8]; ORCiD logo [9]; ORCiD logo [10]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [11]; ORCiD logo [12]; ORCiD logo [13]; ORCiD logo [8]; ORCiD logo [14];  [15]; ORCiD logo [8];  [16] more »; ORCiD logo [17];  [18]; ORCiD logo [8];  [19]; ORCiD logo [19]; ORCiD logo [20];  [21]; ORCiD logo [1] « less
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. East China Normal Univ., Shanghai (China); Institute of Eco‐Chongming, Shanghai (China)
  2. McMaster Univ., Hamilton, ON (Canada)
  3. California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States)
  4. Northern Arizona Univ. Flagstaff, AZ (United States)
  5. National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan)
  6. Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States)
  7. Univ. of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign, Urbana, IL (United States)
  8. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  9. Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA (United States)
  10. Univ. of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China)
  11. Univ. of Quebec at Montreal, QC (Canada); Northwest A&F Univ., Yangling (China)
  12. Peking Univ., Beijing (China)
  13. Montana State Univ. Bozeman, MT (United States)
  14. Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO (United States)
  15. Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States); Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States)
  16. Auburn Univ., Auburn, AL (United States)
  17. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Moffett Field, CA (United States)
  18. Univ. of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China)
  19. East China Normal Univ., Shanghai (China)
  20. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
  21. Northwest A&F Univ., Yangling (China)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
OSTI Identifier:
1542239
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 33; Journal Issue: 6; Journal ID: ISSN 0886-6236
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; environmental drivers; initial conditions; model uncertainty; MsTMIP; relative importance; vegetation functional property

Citation Formats

Cui, Erqian, Huang, Kun, Arain, Muhammad Altaf, Fisher, Joshua B., Huntzinger, Deborah N., Ito, Akihiko, Luo, Yiqi, Jain, Atul K., Mao, Jiafu, Michalak, Anna M., Niu, Shuli, Parazoo, Nicholas C., Peng, Changhui, Peng, Shushi, Poulter, Benjamin, Ricciuto, Daniel M., Schaefer, Kevin M., Schwalm, Christopher R., Shi, Xiaoying, Tian, Hanqin, Wang, Weile, Wang, Jinsong, Wei, Yaxing, Yan, Enrong, Yan, Liming, Zeng, Ning, Zhu, Qiuan, and Xia, Jianyang. Vegetation Functional Properties Determine Uncertainty of Simulated Ecosystem Productivity: A Traceability Analysis in the East Asian Monsoon Region. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1029/2018GB005909.
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Cui, Erqian, Huang, Kun, Arain, Muhammad Altaf, Fisher, Joshua B., Huntzinger, Deborah N., Ito, Akihiko, Luo, Yiqi, Jain, Atul K., Mao, Jiafu, Michalak, Anna M., Niu, Shuli, Parazoo, Nicholas C., Peng, Changhui, Peng, Shushi, Poulter, Benjamin, Ricciuto, Daniel M., Schaefer, Kevin M., Schwalm, Christopher R., Shi, Xiaoying, Tian, Hanqin, Wang, Weile, Wang, Jinsong, Wei, Yaxing, Yan, Enrong, Yan, Liming, Zeng, Ning, Zhu, Qiuan, & Xia, Jianyang. Vegetation Functional Properties Determine Uncertainty of Simulated Ecosystem Productivity: A Traceability Analysis in the East Asian Monsoon Region. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GB005909
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Cui, Erqian, Huang, Kun, Arain, Muhammad Altaf, Fisher, Joshua B., Huntzinger, Deborah N., Ito, Akihiko, Luo, Yiqi, Jain, Atul K., Mao, Jiafu, Michalak, Anna M., Niu, Shuli, Parazoo, Nicholas C., Peng, Changhui, Peng, Shushi, Poulter, Benjamin, Ricciuto, Daniel M., Schaefer, Kevin M., Schwalm, Christopher R., Shi, Xiaoying, Tian, Hanqin, Wang, Weile, Wang, Jinsong, Wei, Yaxing, Yan, Enrong, Yan, Liming, Zeng, Ning, Zhu, Qiuan, and Xia, Jianyang. Sun . "Vegetation Functional Properties Determine Uncertainty of Simulated Ecosystem Productivity: A Traceability Analysis in the East Asian Monsoon Region". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GB005909. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1542239.
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@article{osti_1542239,
title = {Vegetation Functional Properties Determine Uncertainty of Simulated Ecosystem Productivity: A Traceability Analysis in the East Asian Monsoon Region},
author = {Cui, Erqian and Huang, Kun and Arain, Muhammad Altaf and Fisher, Joshua B. and Huntzinger, Deborah N. and Ito, Akihiko and Luo, Yiqi and Jain, Atul K. and Mao, Jiafu and Michalak, Anna M. and Niu, Shuli and Parazoo, Nicholas C. and Peng, Changhui and Peng, Shushi and Poulter, Benjamin and Ricciuto, Daniel M. and Schaefer, Kevin M. and Schwalm, Christopher R. and Shi, Xiaoying and Tian, Hanqin and Wang, Weile and Wang, Jinsong and Wei, Yaxing and Yan, Enrong and Yan, Liming and Zeng, Ning and Zhu, Qiuan and Xia, Jianyang},
abstractNote = {Global and regional projections of climate change by Earth system models are limited by their uncertain estimates of terrestrial ecosystem productivity. At the middle to low latitudes, the East Asian monsoon region has higher productivity than forests in Europe–Africa and North America, but its estimate by current generation of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) has seldom been systematically evaluated. Here, we developed a traceability framework to evaluate the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) by 15 TBMs in the East Asian monsoon region. The framework links GPP to net primary productivity, biomass, leaf area and back to GPP via incorporating multiple vegetation functional properties of carbon–use efficiency (CUE), vegetation C turnover time (τveg), leaf C fraction (Fleaf), specific leaf area (SLA), and leaf area index (LAI)–level photosynthesis (PLAI), respectively. We then applied a relative importance algorithm to attribute intermodel variation at each node. The results showed that large intermodel variation in GPP over 1901–2010 were mainly propagated from their different representation of vegetation functional properties. For example, SLA explained 77% of the intermodel difference in leaf area, which contributed 90% to the simulated GPP differences. In addition, the models simulated higher CUE (18.1 ± 21.3%), τveg (18.2 ± 26.9%), and SLA (27.4±36.5%) than observations, leading to the overestimation of simulated GPP across the East Asian monsoon region. Furthermore, these results suggest the large uncertainty of current TBMs in simulating GPP is largely propagated from their poor representation of the vegetation functional properties and call for a better understanding of the covariations between plant functional properties in terrestrial ecosystems.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GB005909},
journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles},
number = 6,
volume = 33,
place = {United States},
year = {Sun May 12 00:00:00 EDT 2019},
month = {Sun May 12 00:00:00 EDT 2019}
}
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Influence of the Asian monsoon on net ecosystem carbon exchange in two major ecosystems in Korea
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Role of the Tibetan Plateau thermal forcing in the summer climate patterns over subtropical Asia
journal, May 2005

Improving simulated soil temperatures and soil freeze/thaw at high-latitude regions in the Simple Biosphere/Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model
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Stand age and species richness dampen interannual variation of ecosystem-level photosynthetic capacity
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Terrestrial mechanisms of interannual CO 2 variability : INTERANNUAL CO
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Evaluation of four long time-series global leaf area index products
journal, November 2017

Carbon dioxide exchange processes over the grassland ecosystems in semiarid areas of China
journal, September 2011

Decadal trends in the seasonal-cycle amplitude of terrestrial CO 2 exchange resulting from the ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models
journal, May 2016

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Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO 2 exchange across Northern Eurasia
journal, January 2015

Large divergence of satellite and Earth system model estimates of global terrestrial CO2 fertilization
journal, December 2015

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Evaluating the Land and Ocean Components of the Global Carbon Cycle in the CMIP5 Earth System Models
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Soil and vegetation carbon turnover times from tropical to boreal forests
journal, June 2017

Tree architecture varies with forest succession in evergreen broad-leaved forests in Eastern China
journal, July 2014

Net biome production of the Amazon Basin in the 21st century: NBP OF THE AMAZON BASIN
journal, June 2010

Plant functional traits have globally consistent effects on competition
journal, December 2015

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Beyond Singapore: Hong Kong and Asian biodiversity
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The impact of alternative trait-scaling hypotheses for the maximum photosynthetic carboxylation rate ( V cmax ) on global gross primary production
journal, June 2017

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Biomass allocation to leaves, stems and roots: meta-analyses of interspecific variation and environmental control: Tansley review
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Global variability in leaf respiration in relation to climate, plant functional types and leaf traits
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CForBio: a network monitoring Chinese forest biodiversity
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Mapping forests in monsoon Asia with ALOS PALSAR 50-m mosaic images and MODIS imagery in 2010
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Global patterns of land-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide, latent heat, and sensible heat derived from eddy covariance, satellite, and meteorological observations
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Examination of model-estimated ecosystem respiration using flux measurements from a cool-temperate deciduous broad-leaved forest in central Japan
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Photosynthetic productivity and its efficiencies in ISIMIP2a biome models: benchmarking for impact assessment studies
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Evaluating runoff simulations from the Community Land Model 4.0 using observations from flux towers and a mountainous watershed: EVALUATING RUNOFF SIMULATIONS FROM CLM4
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Seasonal variation of carbon dioxide exchange in rice paddy field in Japan
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An observational study of the carbon-sink strength of East Asian subtropical evergreen forests
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Climate data induced uncertainty in model-based estimations of terrestrial primary productivity
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Evaluation of MODIS LAI/FPAR Product Collection 6. Part 1: Consistency and Improvements
journal, April 2016

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Agricultural productivity in relation to climate and cropland management in West Africa
journal, February 2020

Modeling suggests fossil fuel emissions have been driving increased land carbon uptake since the turn of the 20th Century
journal, June 2020

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  • Scientific Reports, Vol. 10, Issue 1
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The North American Carbon Program Multi-scale synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project – Part 1: Overview and experimental design
journal, January 2013

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Response of microbial decomposition to spin-up explains CMIP5 soil carbon range until 2100
journal, January 2014

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Evaluation of the carbon cycle components in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM)
journal, January 2012

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The North American Carbon Program Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project – Part 2: Environmental driver data
journal, January 2013

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Evaluation of climate-related carbon turnover processes in global vegetation models for boreal and temperate forests.
text, January 2017

  • Thurner, Martin; Beer, Christian; Ciais, Philippe
  • Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
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Changes in soil organic carbon storage predicted by Earth system models during the 21st century
journal, January 2013

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Greening of the Earth and its drivers
text, January 2016

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  • Nature Publishing Group
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    Robust leaf trait relationships across species under global environmental changes
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