A metric for evaluating conformance robustness during geologic CO2 sequestration operations
Abstract
A metric for quantifying the robustness of a designation of conformance of a geologic CO2 sequestration (GCS) project during its operational phase is developed and demonstrated. Conformance in this context is a measure of the degree to which the sequestration system is understood and can be accurately modeled along with the degree to which the storage system is performing as designed. The robustness of conformance quantifies the degree to which parameter values can deviate from their current nominal estimates and still produce model forecasts that meet the performance criteria for the GCS operation. We develop and demonstrate the approach on a simplified scenario to illustrate the concept using a single uncertain parameter (homogeneous reservoir permeability) and a single performance criterion (critical pressure at a monitoring well in the reservoir; i.e., one that may displace brine from the reservoir to an overlying drinking water aquifer for example). Increased confidence in conformance assessment as more monitoring data are obtained is incorporated through the standard error of the coefficient (reservoir permeability in the case presented here), which we designate as the concordance metric. As more monitoring data become available during the course of the GCS operation, the standard error of the coefficient decreasesmore »
- Authors:
-
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Fossil Energy (FE); USDOE Office of Science (SC); USDOE Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1511636
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1542410; OSTI ID: 1780384
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-19-23617
Journal ID: ISSN 1750-5836
- Grant/Contract Number:
- 89233218CNA000001; AC02-05CH11231
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 85; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 1750-5836
- Publisher:
- Elsevier
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 58 GEOSCIENCES; Earth Sciences; Geologic carbon sequestration; CO2 storage; Conformance; Concordance; Performance
Citation Formats
Harp, Dylan Robert, Oldenburg, Curtis M., and Pawar, Rajesh J. A metric for evaluating conformance robustness during geologic CO2 sequestration operations. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.03.023.
Harp, Dylan Robert, Oldenburg, Curtis M., & Pawar, Rajesh J. A metric for evaluating conformance robustness during geologic CO2 sequestration operations. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.03.023
Harp, Dylan Robert, Oldenburg, Curtis M., and Pawar, Rajesh J. Fri .
"A metric for evaluating conformance robustness during geologic CO2 sequestration operations". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.03.023. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1511636.
@article{osti_1511636,
title = {A metric for evaluating conformance robustness during geologic CO2 sequestration operations},
author = {Harp, Dylan Robert and Oldenburg, Curtis M. and Pawar, Rajesh J.},
abstractNote = {A metric for quantifying the robustness of a designation of conformance of a geologic CO2 sequestration (GCS) project during its operational phase is developed and demonstrated. Conformance in this context is a measure of the degree to which the sequestration system is understood and can be accurately modeled along with the degree to which the storage system is performing as designed. The robustness of conformance quantifies the degree to which parameter values can deviate from their current nominal estimates and still produce model forecasts that meet the performance criteria for the GCS operation. We develop and demonstrate the approach on a simplified scenario to illustrate the concept using a single uncertain parameter (homogeneous reservoir permeability) and a single performance criterion (critical pressure at a monitoring well in the reservoir; i.e., one that may displace brine from the reservoir to an overlying drinking water aquifer for example). Increased confidence in conformance assessment as more monitoring data are obtained is incorporated through the standard error of the coefficient (reservoir permeability in the case presented here), which we designate as the concordance metric. As more monitoring data become available during the course of the GCS operation, the standard error of the coefficient decreases (in general), thereby leading to increased conformance robustness as a larger deviation from nominal is required to fail to meet performance criteria. Increasing conformance robustness over time builds confidence that a GCS project will continue to meet performance criteria during the life-span of the project, thereby supporting designations of conformance. A lack of conformance robustness provides a critical warning that the performance criteria of the GCS operation are not robust against probabilistic and non-probabilistic uncertainty in model conceptualization and/or model parameters.},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.03.023},
journal = {International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control},
number = C,
volume = 85,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Apr 12 00:00:00 EDT 2019},
month = {Fri Apr 12 00:00:00 EDT 2019}
}
Web of Science
Works referenced in this record:
Progress in monitoring strategies for risk reduction in geologic CO2 storage
journal, August 2016
- Harbert, William; Daley, Thomas M.; Bromhal, Grant
- International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 51
Modeling the impact of carbon dioxide leakage into an unconfined, oxidizing carbonate aquifer
journal, January 2016
- Bacon, Diana H.; Qafoku, Nikolla P.; Dai, Zhenxue
- International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 44
Robust Bayesian analysis: sensitivity to the prior
journal, July 1990
- Berger, James O.
- Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, Vol. 25, Issue 3
The Leakage Risk Monetization Model for Geologic CO 2 Storage
journal, April 2016
- Bielicki, Jeffrey M.; Pollak, Melisa F.; Deng, Hang
- Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 50, Issue 10
Impact-driven pressure management via targeted brine extraction—Conceptual studies of CO2 storage in saline formations
journal, March 2012
- Birkholzer, Jens T.; Cihan, Abdullah; Zhou, Quanlin
- International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 7
Pre-injection brine production in CO2 storage reservoirs: An approach to augment the development, operation, and performance of CCS while generating water
journal, November 2016
- Buscheck, Thomas A.; Bielicki, Jeffrey M.; White, Joshua A.
- International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 54
Managing geologic CO 2 storage with pre-injection brine production: a strategy evaluated with a model of CO 2 injection at Snøhvit
journal, January 2016
- Buscheck, Thomas A.; White, Joshua A.; Carroll, Susan A.
- Energy & Environmental Science, Vol. 9, Issue 4
Impact of CO 2 geological sequestration on the nucleation of earthquakes : CO
journal, September 2011
- Cappa, Frédéric; Rutqvist, Jonny
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 17
Field-scale application of a semi-analytical model for estimation of CO2 and brine leakage along old wells
journal, March 2011
- Celia, Michael A.; Nordbotten, Jan M.; Court, Benjamin
- International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 5, Issue 2
Underground CO 2 storage: demonstrating regulatory conformance by convergence of history-matched modeled and observed CO 2 plume behavior using Sleipner time-lapse seismics
journal, April 2015
- Chadwick, R. Andrew; Noy, David J.
- Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Vol. 5, Issue 3
Geologic CO2 sequestration monitoring design: A machine learning and uncertainty quantification based approach
journal, September 2018
- Chen, Bailian; Harp, Dylan R.; Lin, Youzuo
- Applied Energy, Vol. 225
Time-lapse VSP data processing for monitoring CO2 injection
journal, February 2010
- Cheng, Arthur; Huang, Lianjie; Rutledge, Jim
- The Leading Edge, Vol. 29, Issue 2
Monitoring CO 2 Intrusion and Associated Geochemical Transformations in a Shallow Groundwater System Using Complex Electrical Methods
journal, July 2012
- Dafflon, Baptiste; Wu, Yuxin; Hubbard, Susan S.
- Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 47, Issue 1
Modeling caprock bending stresses and their potential for induced seismicity during CO2 injection
journal, March 2014
- Dempsey, David; Kelkar, Sharad; Pawar, Rajesh
- International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 22
Constraining CO2 simulations by coupled modeling and inversion of electrical resistance and gas composition data
journal, October 2013
- Doetsch, Joseph; Kowalsky, Michael B.; Doughty, Christine
- International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 18
Promising synergies to address water, sequestration, legal, and public acceptance issues associated with large-scale implementation of CO2 sequestration
journal, September 2011
- Court, Benjamin; Elliot, Thomas R.; Dammel, Joseph
- Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol. 17, Issue 6
Pressure effects caused by CO2 injection in the Tubåen Fm., the Snøhvit field
journal, August 2014
- Grude, S.; Landrø, M.; Dvorkin, J.
- International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 27
Progress in monitoring strategies for risk reduction in geologic CO2 storage
journal, August 2016
- Harbert, William; Daley, Thomas M.; Bromhal, Grant
- International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 51
Development of robust pressure management strategies for geologic CO2 sequestration
journal, September 2017
- Harp, Dylan R.; Stauffer, Philip H.; O’Malley, Daniel
- International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 64
Methods to elicit beliefs for Bayesian priors: a systematic review
journal, April 2010
- Johnson, Sindhu R.; Tomlinson, George A.; Hawker, Gillian A.
- Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, Vol. 63, Issue 4
The impact of CO2 on shallow groundwater chemistry: observations at a natural analog site and implications for carbon sequestration
journal, June 2009
- Keating, Elizabeth H.; Fessenden, Julianna; Kanjorski, Nancy
- Environmental Earth Sciences, Vol. 60, Issue 3
Reduced order models for assessing CO2 impacts in shallow unconfined aquifers
journal, March 2016
- Keating, Elizabeth H.; Harp, Dylan H.; Dai, Zhenxue
- International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 46
A guide to eliciting and using expert knowledge in Bayesian ecological models: Expert elicitation and use in Bayesian models
journal, May 2010
- Kuhnert, Petra M.; Martin, Tara G.; Griffiths, Shane P.
- Ecology Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 7
How vague is vague? A simulation study of the impact of the use of vague prior distributions in MCMC using WinBUGS
journal, January 2005
- Lambert, Paul C.; Sutton, Alex J.; Burton, Paul R.
- Statistics in Medicine, Vol. 24, Issue 15
Surface CO 2 leakage during two shallow subsurface CO 2 releases
journal, January 2007
- Lewicki, J. L.; Oldenburg, C. M.; Dobeck, L.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 24
Quantifying subsurface geophysical properties changes using double-difference seismic-waveform inversion with a modified total-variation regularization scheme
journal, November 2015
- Lin, Youzuo; Huang, Lianjie
- Geophysical Journal International, Vol. 203, Issue 3
Potential Impacts of Leakage from Deep CO 2 Geosequestration on Overlying Freshwater Aquifers
journal, December 2010
- Little, Mark G.; Jackson, Robert B.
- Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 44, Issue 23
Confronting Prior Convictions: On Issues of Prior Sensitivity and Likelihood Robustness in Bayesian Analysis
journal, September 2011
- Lopes, Hedibert F.; Tobias, Justin L.
- Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 3, Issue 1
Geomechanical aspects of CO2 sequestration in a deep saline reservoir in the Ohio River Valley region
journal, June 2006
- Lucier, Amie; Zoback, Mark; Gupta, Neeraj
- Environmental Geosciences, Vol. 13, Issue 2
An Algorithm for Least-Squares Estimation of Nonlinear Parameters
journal, June 1963
- Marquardt, Donald W.
- Journal of the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Vol. 11, Issue 2
Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy
journal, May 2014
- Morgan, M. G.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 20
Measuring prior sensitivity and prior informativeness in large Bayesian models
journal, October 2012
- Müller, Ulrich K.
- Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 59, Issue 6
Elucidating geochemical response of shallow heterogeneous aquifers to CO2 leakage using high-performance computing: Implications for monitoring of CO2 sequestration
journal, March 2013
- Navarre-Sitchler, Alexis K.; Maxwell, Reed M.; Siirila, Erica R.
- Advances in Water Resources, Vol. 53
Are we all in concordance with the meaning of the word conformance , and is our definition in conformity with standard definitions?: Feature: Are we all in concordance with the meaning of the word conformance
journal, April 2018
- Oldenburg, Curtis M.
- Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Vol. 8, Issue 2
Leakage risk assessment of the In Salah CO2 storage project: Applying the certification framework in a dynamic context
journal, January 2011
- Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Jordan, Preston D.; Nicot, Jean-Philippe
- Energy Procedia, Vol. 4
Initial Public Perceptions of Deep Geological and Oceanic Disposal of Carbon Dioxide
journal, December 2004
- Palmgren, Claire R.; Morgan, M. Granger; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi
- Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 38, Issue 24
Assessing leakage detectability at geologic CO2 sequestration sites using the probabilistic collocation method
journal, June 2013
- Sun, Alexander Y.; Zeidouni, Mehdi; Nicot, Jean-Philippe
- Advances in Water Resources, Vol. 56
Value of information methodology for assessing the ability of electrical resistivity to detect CO2/brine leakage into a shallow aquifer
journal, October 2013
- Trainor-Guitton, Whitney J.; Ramirez, Abelardo; Yang, Xianjin
- International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 18
Effect of Dissolved CO 2 on a Shallow Groundwater System: A Controlled Release Field Experiment
journal, August 2012
- Trautz, Robert C.; Pugh, John D.; Varadharajan, Charuleka
- Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 47, Issue 1
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
journal, September 1974
- Tversky, A.; Kahneman, D.
- Science, Vol. 185, Issue 4157
Regulating the Geological Sequestration of CO 2
journal, April 2008
- Wilson, Elizabeth J.; Morgan, M. Granger; Apt, Jay
- Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 42, Issue 8