Detecting Signals of Large–Scale Climate Phenomena in Discharge and Nutrient Loads in the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River Basin
Abstract
Abstract Agricultural runoff from the Mississippi‐Atchafalaya River Basin delivers nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to the Gulf of Mexico, causing hypoxia, and climate drives interannual variation in nutrient loads. Climate phenomena such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation may influence nutrient export through effects on river flow, nutrient uptake, or biogeochemical transformation, but landscape variation at smaller spatial scales can mask climate signals in load or discharge time series within large river networks. We used multivariate autoregressive state‐space modeling to investigate climate signals in the long‐term record (1979–2014) of discharge, N, P, and SiO 2 loads at three nested spatial scales within the Mississippi‐Atchafalaya River Basin. We detected significant signals of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and land‐surface temperature anomalies in N loads but not discharge, SiO 2 , or P, suggesting that large‐scale climate phenomena contribute to interannual variation in nutrient loads through biogeochemical mechanisms beyond simple discharge‐load relationships.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[3];
[4];
[5];
[7];
[8]
- Univ. of Washington, St. Louis, MO (United States); Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)
- Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC (Canada)
- Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States)
- U.S. Geological Survey, Tucson, AZ (United States)
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Southeast Alaska Watershed Coalition, Juneau, AK (United States)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Seattle, WA (United States)
- Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1510591
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1504813
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-00OR22725
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 46; Journal Issue: 7; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; nitrogen; phosphorous; multivariate autoregressive state space models; climate; time series analysis; rivers
Citation Formats
Smits, Adrianne P., Ruffing, Claire M., Royer, Todd V., Appling, Alison P., Griffiths, Natalie A., Bellmore, Rebecca, Scheuerell, Mark D., Harms, Tamara K., and Jones, Jeremy B. Detecting Signals of Large–Scale Climate Phenomena in Discharge and Nutrient Loads in the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River Basin. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1029/2018GL081166.
Smits, Adrianne P., Ruffing, Claire M., Royer, Todd V., Appling, Alison P., Griffiths, Natalie A., Bellmore, Rebecca, Scheuerell, Mark D., Harms, Tamara K., & Jones, Jeremy B. Detecting Signals of Large–Scale Climate Phenomena in Discharge and Nutrient Loads in the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River Basin. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081166
Smits, Adrianne P., Ruffing, Claire M., Royer, Todd V., Appling, Alison P., Griffiths, Natalie A., Bellmore, Rebecca, Scheuerell, Mark D., Harms, Tamara K., and Jones, Jeremy B. Mon .
"Detecting Signals of Large–Scale Climate Phenomena in Discharge and Nutrient Loads in the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River Basin". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081166. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1510591.
@article{osti_1510591,
title = {Detecting Signals of Large–Scale Climate Phenomena in Discharge and Nutrient Loads in the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River Basin},
author = {Smits, Adrianne P. and Ruffing, Claire M. and Royer, Todd V. and Appling, Alison P. and Griffiths, Natalie A. and Bellmore, Rebecca and Scheuerell, Mark D. and Harms, Tamara K. and Jones, Jeremy B.},
abstractNote = {Abstract Agricultural runoff from the Mississippi‐Atchafalaya River Basin delivers nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to the Gulf of Mexico, causing hypoxia, and climate drives interannual variation in nutrient loads. Climate phenomena such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation may influence nutrient export through effects on river flow, nutrient uptake, or biogeochemical transformation, but landscape variation at smaller spatial scales can mask climate signals in load or discharge time series within large river networks. We used multivariate autoregressive state‐space modeling to investigate climate signals in the long‐term record (1979–2014) of discharge, N, P, and SiO 2 loads at three nested spatial scales within the Mississippi‐Atchafalaya River Basin. We detected significant signals of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and land‐surface temperature anomalies in N loads but not discharge, SiO 2 , or P, suggesting that large‐scale climate phenomena contribute to interannual variation in nutrient loads through biogeochemical mechanisms beyond simple discharge‐load relationships.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL081166},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 7,
volume = 46,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Mar 18 00:00:00 EDT 2019},
month = {Mon Mar 18 00:00:00 EDT 2019}
}
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