Mission-driven research for stratospheric aerosol geoengineering
Abstract
The last decade has seen broad exploratory research into stratospheric aerosol (SA) geoengineering, motivated by concern that reducing greenhouse gas emissions may be insufficient to avoid significant impacts from climate change. Based on this research, it is plausible that a limited deployment of SA geoengineering, provided it is used in addition to cutting emissions, could reduce many climate risks for most people. However, “plausible” is an insufficient basis on which to support future decisions. Developing the necessary knowledge requires a transition toward mission-driven research that has the explicit goal of supporting informed decisions. We highlight two important observations that follow from considering such a comprehensive, prioritized natural-science research effort. First, while field experiments may eventually be needed to reduce some of the uncertainties, we expect that the next phase of research will continue to be primarily model-based, with one outcome being to assess and prioritize which uncertainties need to be reduced (and, as a corollary, which field experiments can reduce those uncertainties). Second, we anticipate a clear separation in scale and character between small-scale experimental research to resolve specific process uncertainties and global-scale activities. Here, we argue that the latter, even if the radiative forcing is negligible, should more appropriatelymore »
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2]
- California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States); Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)
- California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1501552
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-136053
Journal ID: ISSN 0027-8424
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 116; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 0027-8424
- Publisher:
- National Academy of Sciences
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 42 ENGINEERING; geoengineering; climate engineering; governance; solar radiation management; SRM
Citation Formats
MacMartin, Douglas G., and Kravitz, Ben. Mission-driven research for stratospheric aerosol geoengineering. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1073/pnas.1811022116.
MacMartin, Douglas G., & Kravitz, Ben. Mission-driven research for stratospheric aerosol geoengineering. United States. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1811022116
MacMartin, Douglas G., and Kravitz, Ben. Mon .
"Mission-driven research for stratospheric aerosol geoengineering". United States. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1811022116. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1501552.
@article{osti_1501552,
title = {Mission-driven research for stratospheric aerosol geoengineering},
author = {MacMartin, Douglas G. and Kravitz, Ben},
abstractNote = {The last decade has seen broad exploratory research into stratospheric aerosol (SA) geoengineering, motivated by concern that reducing greenhouse gas emissions may be insufficient to avoid significant impacts from climate change. Based on this research, it is plausible that a limited deployment of SA geoengineering, provided it is used in addition to cutting emissions, could reduce many climate risks for most people. However, “plausible” is an insufficient basis on which to support future decisions. Developing the necessary knowledge requires a transition toward mission-driven research that has the explicit goal of supporting informed decisions. We highlight two important observations that follow from considering such a comprehensive, prioritized natural-science research effort. First, while field experiments may eventually be needed to reduce some of the uncertainties, we expect that the next phase of research will continue to be primarily model-based, with one outcome being to assess and prioritize which uncertainties need to be reduced (and, as a corollary, which field experiments can reduce those uncertainties). Second, we anticipate a clear separation in scale and character between small-scale experimental research to resolve specific process uncertainties and global-scale activities. Here, we argue that the latter, even if the radiative forcing is negligible, should more appropriately be considered after a decision regarding whether and how to deploy SA geoengineering, rather than within the scope of “research” activities.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1811022116},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
number = 4,
volume = 116,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Jan 07 00:00:00 EST 2019},
month = {Mon Jan 07 00:00:00 EST 2019}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Cited by: 26 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Web of Science
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
Dynamics of the coupled human–climate system resulting from closed-loop control of solar geoengineering
journal, June 2013
- MacMartin, Douglas G.; Kravitz, Ben; Keith, David W.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 43, Issue 1-2
A Test for Geoengineering?
journal, January 2010
- Robock, A.; Bunzl, M.; Kravitz, B.
- Science, Vol. 327, Issue 5965
Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall
journal, March 2013
- Haywood, Jim M.; Jones, Andy; Bellouin, Nicolas
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 7
Modifications of the quasi-biennial oscillation by a geoengineering perturbation of the stratospheric aerosol layer: Aquila et al.: QBO modifications by geoengineering
journal, March 2014
- Aquila, V.; Garfinkel, C. I.; Newman, P. A.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 5
Relevant climate response tests for stratospheric aerosol injection: A combined ethical and scientific analysis: CLIMATE RESPONSE TESTS: ETHICS AND SCIENCE
journal, June 2017
- Lenferna, Georges Alexandre; Russotto, Rick D.; Tan, Amanda
- Earth's Future, Vol. 5, Issue 6
Potentially dangerous consequences for biodiversity of solar geoengineering implementation and termination
journal, January 2018
- Trisos, Christopher H.; Amatulli, Giuseppe; Gurevitch, Jessica
- Nature Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 2, Issue 3
Solar geoengineering could substantially reduce climate risks-A research hypothesis for the next decade: SOLAR GEOENGINEERING COULD REDUCE RISK
journal, November 2016
- Keith, David W.; Irvine, Peter J.
- Earth's Future, Vol. 4, Issue 11
Geoengineering as an optimization problem
journal, July 2010
- Ban-Weiss, George A.; Caldeira, Ken
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 5, Issue 3
Stratospheric solar geoengineering without ozone loss
journal, December 2016
- Keith, David W.; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Dykema, John A.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, Issue 52
Towards legitimacy of the solar geoengineering research enterprise
journal, April 2018
- Frumhoff, Peter C.; Stephens, Jennie C.
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 376, Issue 2119
Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering
journal, October 2015
- Moore, John C.; Grinsted, Aslak; Guo, Xiaoran
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 45
Policy: Start research on climate engineering
journal, February 2015
- Long, Jane C. S.; Loy, Frank; Morgan, M. Granger
- Nature, Vol. 518, Issue 7537
Solar geoengineering as part of an overall strategy for meeting the 1.5°C Paris target
journal, April 2018
- MacMartin, Douglas G.; Ricke, Katharine L.; Keith, David W.
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 376, Issue 2119
Geoengineering with stratospheric aerosols: What do we not know after a decade of research?: GEOENGINEERING: WHAT DO WE NOT KNOW?
journal, November 2016
- MacMartin, Douglas G.; Kravitz, Ben; Long, Jane C. S.
- Earth's Future, Vol. 4, Issue 11
The Risk of Termination Shock From Solar Geoengineering
journal, March 2018
- Parker, Andy; Irvine, Peter J.
- Earth's Future, Vol. 6, Issue 3
Can we test geoengineering?
journal, January 2011
- MacMynowski, Douglas G.; Keith, David W.; Caldeira, Ken
- Energy & Environmental Science, Vol. 4, Issue 12
Efficacy of geoengineering to limit 21st century sea-level rise
journal, August 2010
- Moore, J. C.; Jevrejeva, S.; Grinsted, A.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 36
Management of trade-offs in geoengineering through optimal choice of non-uniform radiative forcing
journal, October 2012
- MacMartin, Douglas G.; Keith, David W.; Kravitz, Ben
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 4
Stratospheric aerosol-Observations, processes, and impact on climate: Stratospheric Aerosol
journal, May 2016
- Kremser, Stefanie; Thomason, Larry W.; von Hobe, Marc
- Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 54, Issue 2
Marine cloud brightening
journal, September 2012
- Latham, John; Bower, Keith; Choularton, Tom
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 370, Issue 1974
Sensitivity of Aerosol Distribution and Climate Response to Stratospheric SO 2 Injection Locations
journal, December 2017
- Tilmes, Simone; Richter, Jadwiga H.; Mills, Michael J.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 122, Issue 23
The International Politics of Climate Engineering: A Review and Prospectus for International Relations
journal, March 2016
- Horton, Joshua B.; Reynolds, Jesse L.
- International Studies Review, Vol. 18, Issue 3
Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A Contribution to Resolve a Policy Dilemma?
journal, July 2006
- Crutzen, Paul J.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 77, Issue 3-4
International Governance of Climate Engineering
journal, January 2013
- Parson, Edward A.; Ernst, Lia N.
- Theoretical Inquiries in Law, Vol. 14, Issue 1
Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C
journal, June 2016
- Rogelj, Joeri; den Elzen, Michel; Höhne, Niklas
- Nature, Vol. 534, Issue 7609
The who, what, and wherefore of geoengineering governance
journal, April 2013
- Bodansky, Daniel
- Climatic Change, Vol. 121, Issue 3
Solar Geoengineering’s Brave New World: Thoughts on the Governance of an Unprecedented Technology
journal, July 2014
- Barrett, Scott
- Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Vol. 8, Issue 2
Cost analysis of stratospheric albedo modification delivery systems
journal, August 2012
- McClellan, Justin; Keith, David W.; Apt, Jay
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 7, Issue 3
Opinion: Climate policymakers and assessments must get serious about climate engineering
journal, August 2017
- Parson, Edward A.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, Issue 35
Stratospheric Dynamical Response and Ozone Feedbacks in the Presence of SO 2 Injections
journal, December 2017
- Richter, Jadwiga H.; Tilmes, Simone; Mills, Michael J.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 122, Issue 23
Defining success and limits of field experiments to test geoengineering by marine cloud brightening
journal, September 2013
- Wood, Robert; Ackerman, Thomas P.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 121, Issue 3
Tailoring Meridional and Seasonal Radiative Forcing by Sulfate Aerosol Solar Geoengineering
journal, January 2018
- Dai, Z.; Weisenstein, D. K.; Keith, D. W.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 2
The cost of stratospheric climate engineering revisited
journal, September 2016
- Moriyama, Ryo; Sugiyama, Masahiro; Kurosawa, Atsushi
- Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol. 22, Issue 8
The Need for Governance of Climate Geoengineering
journal, January 2017
- Pasztor, Janos
- Ethics & International Affairs, Vol. 31, Issue 4
Global Cooling After the Eruption of Mount Pinatubo: A Test of Climate Feedback by Water Vapor
journal, April 2002
- Soden, B. J.
- Science, Vol. 296, Issue 5568
Stratospheric controlled perturbation experiment: a small-scale experiment to improve understanding of the risks of solar geoengineering
journal, December 2014
- Dykema, John A.; Keith, David W.; Anderson, James G.
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 372, Issue 2031
An overview of the Earth system science of solar geoengineering: Overview of the earth system science of solar geoengineering
journal, July 2016
- Irvine, Peter J.; Kravitz, Ben; Lawrence, Mark G.
- Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 6
Geoengineering as a design problem
journal, January 2016
- Kravitz, Ben; MacMartin, Douglas G.; Wang, Hailong
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 7, Issue 2
The Climate Response to Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Can Be Tailored Using Multiple Injection Locations
journal, December 2017
- MacMartin, Douglas G.; Kravitz, Ben; Tilmes, Simone
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 122, Issue 23
Field experiments on solar geoengineering: report of a workshop exploring a representative research portfolio
journal, December 2014
- Keith, David W.; Duren, Riley; MacMartin, Douglas G.
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 372, Issue 2031
Betting on negative emissions
journal, September 2014
- Fuss, Sabine; Canadell, Josep G.; Peters, Glen P.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 10
A Combined Mitigation/Geoengineering Approach to Climate Stabilization
journal, October 2006
- Wigley, T. M. L.
- Science, Vol. 314, Issue 5798
Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions
journal, January 2009
- Solomon, Susan; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Knutti, Reto
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue 6
Research on global sun block needed now
journal, January 2010
- Keith, David W.; Parson, Edward; Morgan, M. Granger
- Nature, Vol. 463, Issue 7280
Studying geoengineering with natural and anthropogenic analogs
journal, May 2013
- Robock, Alan; MacMartin, Douglas G.; Duren, Riley
- Climatic Change, Vol. 121, Issue 3
Could geoengineering research help answer one of the biggest questions in climate science?: GEOENGINEERING RESEARCH
journal, July 2017
- Wood, Robert; Ackerman, Thomas; Rasch, Philip
- Earth's Future, Vol. 5, Issue 7
A multimodel examination of climate extremes in an idealized geoengineering experiment
journal, April 2014
- Curry, Charles L.; Sillmann, Jana; Bronaugh, David
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 119, Issue 7
Climate model response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP): GEOMIP MODEL RESPONSE
journal, August 2013
- Kravitz, Ben; Caldeira, Ken; Boucher, Olivier
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 15
Global volcanic aerosol properties derived from emissions, 1990-2014, using CESM1(WACCM): VOLCANIC AEROSOLS DERIVED FROM EMISSIONS
journal, March 2016
- Mills, Michael J.; Schmidt, Anja; Easter, Richard
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 121, Issue 5
Geoengineering as a design problem
journal, January 2015
- Kravitz, B.; MacMartin, D. G.; Wang, H.
- Earth System Dynamics Discussions, Vol. 6, Issue 2
Climate econometric models indicate solar geoengineering would reduce inter-country income inequality
journal, January 2020
- Harding, Anthony R.; Ricke, Katharine; Heyen, Daniel
- Nature Communications, Vol. 11, Issue 1
The Who, What, and Wherefore of Geoengineering Governance
journal, January 2012
- Bodansky, Daniel
- SSRN Electronic Journal
Works referencing / citing this record:
A mission-driven research program on solar geoengineering could promote justice and legitimacy
journal, November 2019
- Morrow, David R.
- Critical Review of International Social and Political Philosophy, Vol. 23, Issue 5
Engineering climate debt: temperature overshoot and peak-shaving as risky subprime mortgage lending
journal, May 2019
- Asayama, Shinichiro; Hulme, Mike
- Climate Policy, Vol. 19, Issue 8
Technical characteristics of a solar geoengineering deployment and implications for governance
journal, September 2019
- MacMartin, Douglas G.; Irvine, Peter J.; Kravitz, Ben
- Climate Policy, Vol. 19, Issue 10
Solar geoengineering to reduce climate change: a review of governance proposals
journal, September 2019
- Reynolds, Jesse L.
- Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 475, Issue 2229
Beyond solutionist science for the Anthropocene: To navigate the contentious atmosphere of solar geoengineering
journal, April 2019
- Asayama, Shinichiro; Sugiyama, Masahiro; Ishii, Atsushi
- The Anthropocene Review, Vol. 6, Issue 1-2
Engineering climate debt: temperature overshoot and peak-shaving as risky subprime mortgage lending
text, January 2019
- Asayama, S.; Hulme, Michael
- Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
Solar Geoengineering to Reduce Climate Change: A Review of Governance Proposals
journal, January 2019
- Reynolds, Jesse L.
- SSRN Electronic Journal