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Title: Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming

Journal Article · · Nature (London)
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [11];  [12];  [13];  [14];  [15];  [16];  [17];  [18];  [19];  [20] more »;  [21];  [22];  [23];  [24];  [25];  [12];  [26];  [19];  [27];  [28];  [29];  [30];  [31];  [32];  [19];  [33];  [31];  [14];  [21];  [12];  [32];  [20];  [12];  [19];  [34];  [2];  [35];  [10];  [36];  [37] « less
  1. Netherlands Inst. of Ecology, Wageningen (The Netherlands); Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States); University of Vermont
  2. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  3. Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States)
  4. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
  5. Marine Biological Lab., Woods Hole, MA (United States)
  6. Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)
  7. Netherlands Inst. of Ecology, Wageningen (The Netherlands); Wageningen Univ., Wageningen (The Netherlands)
  8. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing (China); Nanjing Univ. of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing (China)
  9. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing (China)
  10. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
  11. Kansas State Univ., Manhattan, KS (United States)
  12. Univ. of Oregon, Eugene, OR (United States)
  13. Michigan Technological Univ., Houghton, MI (United States)
  14. Western Sydney Univ., Penrith, NSW (Australia)
  15. Western Sydney Univ., Penrith, NSW (Australia); Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States)
  16. Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States)
  17. Univ. of Copenhagen, Copenhagen (Denmark); Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)
  18. Univ. of Sydney, Camden, NSW (Australia)
  19. Univ. of Copenhagen, Copenhagen (Denmark)
  20. Environment Centre Wales, Bangor (United Kingdom). Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
  21. Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Catalonia (Spain); Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (CREAF), Catalonia (Spain)
  22. Univ. of New Hampshire, Durham, NH (United States)
  23. Northeast Normal Univ., Jilin Province (China)
  24. Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
  25. Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States)
  26. Magyar Tudomanyos Akademia Centre for Ecological Research (MTA), Budapest (Hungary)
  27. Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå (Sweden)
  28. Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States); Univ. of Manchester, Manchester (United Kingdom)
  29. Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States); Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)
  30. National Univ. of Singapore, Singapore (Singapore)
  31. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China)
  32. Univ. of Hohenheim, Stuttgart (Germany)
  33. Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States)
  34. Hampshire College, Amherst, MA (United States)
  35. Boston Univ., Boston, MA (United States)
  36. Univ. of Alaska, Anchorage, AK (United States)
  37. Netherlands Inst. of Ecology, Wageningen (The Netherlands); Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations

The majority of the Earth’s terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming- induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon–climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

Research Organization:
Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0010562
OSTI ID:
1501388
Journal Information:
Nature (London), Journal Name: Nature (London) Journal Issue: 7631 Vol. 540; ISSN 0028-0836
Publisher:
Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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