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Title: Understanding End‐of‐Century Snowpack Changes Over California's Sierra Nevada

Journal Article · · Geophysical Research Letters
ORCiD logo [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [2];  [2];  [2]
  1. Department of Geosciences University of Missouri at Kansas City Kansas City Missouri USA, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of California Los Angeles California USA
  2. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of California Los Angeles California USA
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Abstract This study uses dynamical and statistical methods to understand end‐of‐century mean changes to Sierra Nevada snowpack. Dynamical results reveal that middle‐elevation watersheds experience considerably more rain than snow during winter, leading to substantial snowpack declines by spring. Despite some high‐elevation watersheds receiving slightly more snow in January and February, the warming signal still dominates across the wet season and leads to notable declines by springtime. A statistical model is created to mimic dynamical results for 1 April snowpack, allowing for an efficient downscaling of all available general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. For all general circulation models and emission scenarios, dramatic 1 April snowpack loss occurs at elevations below 2,500 m, despite increased precipitation in many general circulation models. Only 36% (±12%) of historical 1 April total snow water equivalent volume remains at the century's end under a “business‐as‐usual” emission scenario, with 70% (±12%) remaining under a realistic “mitigation” scenario.

Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0014061
OSTI ID:
1492762
Journal Information:
Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 46; ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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