Understanding End‐of‐Century Snowpack Changes Over California's Sierra Nevada
Abstract
Abstract This study uses dynamical and statistical methods to understand end‐of‐century mean changes to Sierra Nevada snowpack. Dynamical results reveal that middle‐elevation watersheds experience considerably more rain than snow during winter, leading to substantial snowpack declines by spring. Despite some high‐elevation watersheds receiving slightly more snow in January and February, the warming signal still dominates across the wet season and leads to notable declines by springtime. A statistical model is created to mimic dynamical results for 1 April snowpack, allowing for an efficient downscaling of all available general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. For all general circulation models and emission scenarios, dramatic 1 April snowpack loss occurs at elevations below 2,500 m, despite increased precipitation in many general circulation models. Only 36% (±12%) of historical 1 April total snow water equivalent volume remains at the century's end under a “business‐as‐usual” emission scenario, with 70% (±12%) remaining under a realistic “mitigation” scenario.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
- Department of Geosciences University of Missouri at Kansas City Kansas City Missouri USA, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of California Los Angeles California USA
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of California Los Angeles California USA
- Publication Date:
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1492762
- Grant/Contract Number:
- DE‐SC0014061
- Resource Type:
- Publisher's Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Volume: 46 Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Citation Formats
Sun, Fengpeng, Berg, Neil, Hall, Alex, Schwartz, Marla, and Walton, Daniel. Understanding End‐of‐Century Snowpack Changes Over California's Sierra Nevada. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1029/2018GL080362.
Sun, Fengpeng, Berg, Neil, Hall, Alex, Schwartz, Marla, & Walton, Daniel. Understanding End‐of‐Century Snowpack Changes Over California's Sierra Nevada. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080362
Sun, Fengpeng, Berg, Neil, Hall, Alex, Schwartz, Marla, and Walton, Daniel. Tue .
"Understanding End‐of‐Century Snowpack Changes Over California's Sierra Nevada". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080362.
@article{osti_1492762,
title = {Understanding End‐of‐Century Snowpack Changes Over California's Sierra Nevada},
author = {Sun, Fengpeng and Berg, Neil and Hall, Alex and Schwartz, Marla and Walton, Daniel},
abstractNote = {Abstract This study uses dynamical and statistical methods to understand end‐of‐century mean changes to Sierra Nevada snowpack. Dynamical results reveal that middle‐elevation watersheds experience considerably more rain than snow during winter, leading to substantial snowpack declines by spring. Despite some high‐elevation watersheds receiving slightly more snow in January and February, the warming signal still dominates across the wet season and leads to notable declines by springtime. A statistical model is created to mimic dynamical results for 1 April snowpack, allowing for an efficient downscaling of all available general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. For all general circulation models and emission scenarios, dramatic 1 April snowpack loss occurs at elevations below 2,500 m, despite increased precipitation in many general circulation models. Only 36% (±12%) of historical 1 April total snow water equivalent volume remains at the century's end under a “business‐as‐usual” emission scenario, with 70% (±12%) remaining under a realistic “mitigation” scenario.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL080362},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 2,
volume = 46,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Jan 29 00:00:00 EST 2019},
month = {Tue Jan 29 00:00:00 EST 2019}
}
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080362
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