A Regional Model of Climate Change and Human Migration

Naugle, Asmeret Bier; Backus, George A.; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Kistin-Keller, Elizabeth; Villa, Daniel L.

doi:10.4018/IJSDA.2019010101

Title: A Regional Model of Climate Change and Human Migration

Abstract

As climate change and human migration accelerate globally, decision-makers are seeking tools that can deepen their understanding of the complex nexus between climate change and human migration. These tools can help to identify populations under pressure to migrate, and to explore proactive policy options and adaptive measures. Given the complexity of factors influencing migration, this article presents a system dynamics-based model that couples migration decision making and behavior with the interacting dynamics of economy, labor, population, violence, governance, water, food, and disease. The regional model is applied here to the test case of migration within and beyond Mali. As a result the study explores potential systems impacts of a range of proactive policy solutions and shows that improving the effectiveness of governance and increasing foreign aid to urban areas have the highest potential of those investigated to reduce the necessity to migrate in the face of climate change.

Authors:

Naugle, Asmeret Bier ^[1]; Backus, George A. ^[1]; Tidwell, Vincent C. ^[1]; Kistin-Keller, Elizabeth ^[1]; Villa, Daniel L. ^[1]

Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

Publication Date:: Tue Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2019

Research Org.:: Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

OSTI Identifier:: 1487419

Report Number(s):: SAND-2018-9561J
Journal ID: ISSN 2160-9772; 667486

Grant/Contract Number:: AC04-94AL85000

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: International Journal of System Dynamics Applications

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 8; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2160-9772

Publisher:: IGI Global

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats


                    Naugle, Asmeret Bier, Backus, George A., Tidwell, Vincent C., Kistin-Keller, Elizabeth, and Villa, Daniel L. A Regional Model of Climate Change and Human Migration.  United States: N. p., 2019. 
Web.  doi:10.4018/IJSDA.2019010101.

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                    Naugle, Asmeret Bier, Backus, George A., Tidwell, Vincent C., Kistin-Keller, Elizabeth, & Villa, Daniel L. A Regional Model of Climate Change and Human Migration.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.4018/IJSDA.2019010101

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                    Naugle, Asmeret Bier, Backus, George A., Tidwell, Vincent C., Kistin-Keller, Elizabeth, and Villa, Daniel L. Tue .  
"A Regional Model of Climate Change and Human Migration".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.4018/IJSDA.2019010101.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1487419.

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@article{osti_1487419,

  title        = {A Regional Model of Climate Change and Human Migration},

  author       = {Naugle, Asmeret Bier and Backus, George A. and Tidwell, Vincent C. and Kistin-Keller, Elizabeth and Villa, Daniel L.},

  abstractNote = {As climate change and human migration accelerate globally, decision-makers are seeking tools that can deepen their understanding of the complex nexus between climate change and human migration. These tools can help to identify populations under pressure to migrate, and to explore proactive policy options and adaptive measures. Given the complexity of factors influencing migration, this article presents a system dynamics-based model that couples migration decision making and behavior with the interacting dynamics of economy, labor, population, violence, governance, water, food, and disease. The regional model is applied here to the test case of migration within and beyond Mali. As a result the study explores potential systems impacts of a range of proactive policy solutions and shows that improving the effectiveness of governance and increasing foreign aid to urban areas have the highest potential of those investigated to reduce the necessity to migrate in the face of climate change.},

  doi          = {10.4018/IJSDA.2019010101},

  journal      = {International Journal of System Dynamics Applications},

  number       = 1,

  volume       = 8,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Tue Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2019},

  month        = {Tue Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2019}

}

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Similar Records

Title: A Regional Model of Climate Change and Human Migration

Abstract

Citation Formats

The Direct Impact of Climate Change on Regional Labor Productivity journal, November 2009

Climate change, land degradation and migration in Mali and Senegal – some policy implications journal, April 2015

Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: Review and evaluation of different methods journal, August 2012

An Overview of the GTAP 9 Data Base journal, May 2016

Does Environmental Degradation Influence Migration? Emigration to Developed Countries in the Late 1980s and 1990s journal, September 2009

An Evolutionary New Economic Geography Model journal, November 2000

Design of an agent-based model to examine population–environment interactions in Nang Rong District, Thailand journal, May 2013

Climate interactive: the C-ROADS climate policy model: Climate interactive journal, July 2012

Climate change and internal migration patterns in Bangladesh: an agent-based model journal, July 2012

Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations journal, November 2007

A Theory of Migration journal, January 1966

System Dynamics Base-Model of Humanitarian Supply Chain (HSCM) in Disaster Prone Eco-Communities of India: A Discussion on Simulation and Scenario Results journal, July 2017

Global Spatio-Temporal Patterns in Human Migration: A Complex Network Perspective journal, January 2013

Statistical Modeling of Migration Attractiveness of the EU Member States journal, November 2015

Environmental Dimensions of Migration journal, August 2015

A Systems Dynamics Model for Mobile Industry Governance in the Context of the Kenyan Vision 2030 journal, April 2018

A system dynamics model for national energy policy planning journal, January 1992

The near-term risk of climate uncertainty among the U.S. states journal, June 2012

Migration as an Adaptation to Climate Change journal, March 2006

Use of Rainfall and sea Surface Temperature Monitoring for Malaria Early Warning in Botswana journal, July 2005

Rainfall Patterns and U.S. Migration from Rural Mexico journal, December 2013

Exploring 30 years of malaria case data in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: Part I. The impact of climatic factors journal, December 2004

Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: An idealised case study over Europe journal, March 2013

Household access to capital and its effects on drought adaptation and migration: a case study of rural Alberta in the 1930s journal, May 2010

The Laws of Migration journal, June 1889

Hydration at the Work Site journal, October 2007

Causal Analyses of Public Debt and Structural Adjustment journal, January 2017

The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues journal, September 2011

The migration response to increasing temperatures journal, September 2016

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview journal, January 2017

System dynamics as a useful technique for complex systems journal, January 2012

Food Security Indicators for Subsistence Farmers Sustainability: A System Dynamics Approach journal, January 2018

Climate Change and Future Analysis: Is Stationarity Dying? journal, December 2008

Economic drivers of migration and climate change in LDCs journal, December 2011

Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change journal, June 2013

Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming journal, February 2013

Migration and social networks — An explanatory multi-evolutionary agent-based model conference, April 2011

Agent-based model simulations of future changes in migration flows for Burkina Faso journal, December 2011

The Direct Impact of Climate Change on Regional Labor Productivity
journal, November 2009

Climate change, land degradation and migration in Mali and Senegal – some policy implications
journal, April 2015

Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: Review and evaluation of different methods
journal, August 2012

An Overview of the GTAP 9 Data Base
journal, May 2016

Does Environmental Degradation Influence Migration? Emigration to Developed Countries in the Late 1980s and 1990s
journal, September 2009

An Evolutionary New Economic Geography Model
journal, November 2000

Design of an agent-based model to examine population–environment interactions in Nang Rong District, Thailand
journal, May 2013

Climate interactive: the C-ROADS climate policy model: Climate interactive
journal, July 2012

Climate change and internal migration patterns in Bangladesh: an agent-based model
journal, July 2012

Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations
journal, November 2007

A Theory of Migration
journal, January 1966

System Dynamics Base-Model of Humanitarian Supply Chain (HSCM) in Disaster Prone Eco-Communities of India: A Discussion on Simulation and Scenario Results
journal, July 2017

Global Spatio-Temporal Patterns in Human Migration: A Complex Network Perspective
journal, January 2013

Statistical Modeling of Migration Attractiveness of the EU Member States
journal, November 2015

Environmental Dimensions of Migration
journal, August 2015

A Systems Dynamics Model for Mobile Industry Governance in the Context of the Kenyan Vision 2030
journal, April 2018

A system dynamics model for national energy policy planning
journal, January 1992

The near-term risk of climate uncertainty among the U.S. states
journal, June 2012

Migration as an Adaptation to Climate Change
journal, March 2006

Use of Rainfall and sea Surface Temperature Monitoring for Malaria Early Warning in Botswana
journal, July 2005

Rainfall Patterns and U.S. Migration from Rural Mexico
journal, December 2013

Exploring 30 years of malaria case data in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: Part I. The impact of climatic factors
journal, December 2004

Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: An idealised case study over Europe
journal, March 2013

Household access to capital and its effects on drought adaptation and migration: a case study of rural Alberta in the 1930s
journal, May 2010

The Laws of Migration
journal, June 1889

Hydration at the Work Site
journal, October 2007

Causal Analyses of Public Debt and Structural Adjustment
journal, January 2017

The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues
journal, September 2011

The migration response to increasing temperatures
journal, September 2016

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview
journal, January 2017

System dynamics as a useful technique for complex systems
journal, January 2012

Food Security Indicators for Subsistence Farmers Sustainability: A System Dynamics Approach
journal, January 2018

Climate Change and Future Analysis: Is Stationarity Dying?
journal, December 2008

Economic drivers of migration and climate change in LDCs
journal, December 2011

Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change
journal, June 2013

Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming
journal, February 2013

Migration and social networks — An explanatory multi-evolutionary agent-based model
conference, April 2011

Agent-based model simulations of future changes in migration flows for Burkina Faso
journal, December 2011