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Title: The future of wind energy in California: Future projections with the Variable-Resolution CESM

Shifting wind patterns are an expected consequence of global climate change, with direct implications for wind energy production. However, wind is notoriously difficult to predict, and significant uncertainty remains in our understanding of climate change impacts on existing wind generation capacity. Historical and future wind climatology and associated capacity factors at five wind turbine sites in California are examined. Historical (1980–2000) and mid-century (2030–2050) simulations were produced using the Variable-Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to understand how these wind generation sites are expected to be impacted by climate change. A high-resolution statistically downscaled WRF product provided by DNV GL, reanalysis datasets MERRA-2, CFSR, NARR, and observational data were used for model validation and comparison. These projections suggest that wind power generation capacity throughout the state is expected to increase during the summer, and decrease during fall and winter, based on significant changes at several wind farm sites. Finally, this study improves the characterization of uncertainty around the magnitude and variability in space and time of California's wind resources in the near future, and also enhances our understanding of the physical mechanisms related to the trends in wind resource variability.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [1] ;  [2]
  1. Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  2. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231; SC0016605; EPC-15-068; CA-D-LAW-2203-H
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Renewable Energy
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 127; Journal ID: ISSN 0960-1481
Publisher:
Elsevier
Research Org:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23); California Energy Commission (United States); USDA National Inst. of Food and Agriculture (NIFA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
17 WIND ENERGY; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; wind energy; climate change; variable-resolution climate modeling; California
OSTI Identifier:
1477409

Wang, Meina, Ullrich, Paul, and Millstein, Dev. The future of wind energy in California: Future projections with the Variable-Resolution CESM. United States: N. p., Web. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2018.04.031.
Wang, Meina, Ullrich, Paul, & Millstein, Dev. The future of wind energy in California: Future projections with the Variable-Resolution CESM. United States. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2018.04.031.
Wang, Meina, Ullrich, Paul, and Millstein, Dev. 2018. "The future of wind energy in California: Future projections with the Variable-Resolution CESM". United States. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2018.04.031. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1477409.
@article{osti_1477409,
title = {The future of wind energy in California: Future projections with the Variable-Resolution CESM},
author = {Wang, Meina and Ullrich, Paul and Millstein, Dev},
abstractNote = {Shifting wind patterns are an expected consequence of global climate change, with direct implications for wind energy production. However, wind is notoriously difficult to predict, and significant uncertainty remains in our understanding of climate change impacts on existing wind generation capacity. Historical and future wind climatology and associated capacity factors at five wind turbine sites in California are examined. Historical (1980–2000) and mid-century (2030–2050) simulations were produced using the Variable-Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to understand how these wind generation sites are expected to be impacted by climate change. A high-resolution statistically downscaled WRF product provided by DNV GL, reanalysis datasets MERRA-2, CFSR, NARR, and observational data were used for model validation and comparison. These projections suggest that wind power generation capacity throughout the state is expected to increase during the summer, and decrease during fall and winter, based on significant changes at several wind farm sites. Finally, this study improves the characterization of uncertainty around the magnitude and variability in space and time of California's wind resources in the near future, and also enhances our understanding of the physical mechanisms related to the trends in wind resource variability.},
doi = {10.1016/j.renene.2018.04.031},
journal = {Renewable Energy},
number = ,
volume = 127,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {4}
}