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Title: Predicting impacts of chemicals from organisms to ecosystem service delivery: A case study of endocrine disruptor effects on trout

Abstract

We demonstrate how mechanistic modeling can be used to predict whether and how biological responses to chemicals at (sub)organismal levels in model species (i.e., what we typically measure) translate into impacts on ecosystem service delivery (i.e., what we care about). We consider a hypothetical case study of two species of trout, brown trout (Salmo trutta; BT) and greenback cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii stomias; GCT). These hypothetical populations live in a high-altitude river system and are exposed to human-derived estrogen (17α-ethinyl estradiol, EE2), which is the bioactive estrogen in many contraceptives. We use the individual-based model inSTREAM to explore how seasonally varying concentrations of EE2 could influence male spawning and sperm quality. Resulting impacts on trout recruitment and the consequences of such for anglers and for the continued viability of populations of GCT (the state fish of Colorado) are explored. inSTREAM incorporates seasonally varying river flow and temperature, fishing pressure, the influence of EE2 on species-specific demography, and inter-specific competition. The model facilitates quantitative exploration of the relative importance of endocrine disruption and inter-species competition on trout population dynamics. Simulations predicted constant EE2 loading to have more impacts on GCT than BT. However, increasing removal of BT by anglers can enhancemore » the persistence of GCT and offset some of the negative effects of EE2. We demonstrate how models that quantitatively link impacts of chemicals and other stressors on individual survival, growth, and reproduction to consequences for populations and ecosystem service delivery, can be coupled with ecosystem service valuation. The approach facilitates interpretation of toxicity data in an ecological context and gives beneficiaries of ecosystem services a more explicit role in management decisions. Although challenges remain, this type of approach may be particularly helpful for site-specific risk assessments and those in which tradeoffs and synergies among ecosystem services need to be considered.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [1];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [7];  [10];  [11];  [12];  [13]
  1. Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States)
  2. Lang Railsback & Associates, Arcata, CA (United States)
  3. Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA (United States)
  4. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Cincinnati, OH (United States)
  5. Bayer AG, Monheaim am Rhein (Germany)
  6. Syngenta Crop Protections, LLC, Greensboro, NC (United States)
  7. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States)
  8. USDA Forest Service, Arcata, CA (United States). Pacific Southwest Research Station
  9. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  10. Integreal Consulting, Woodinville, WA (United States)
  11. Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE (United States)
  12. Syngenta, Bracknell (United Kingdom)
  13. Towson Univ., Towson, MD (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1470856
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Science of the Total Environment
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 649; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0048-9697
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Forbes, Valery E., Railsback, Steve, Accolla, Chiara, Birnir, Bjorn, Bruins, Randall J. F., Ducrot, Virginie, Galic, Nika, Garber, Kristina, Harvey, Bret C., Jager, Henriette I., Kanarek, Andrew, Pastorok, Robert, Rebarber, Richard, Thorbek, Pernille, and Salice, Chris J. Predicting impacts of chemicals from organisms to ecosystem service delivery: A case study of endocrine disruptor effects on trout. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.344.
Forbes, Valery E., Railsback, Steve, Accolla, Chiara, Birnir, Bjorn, Bruins, Randall J. F., Ducrot, Virginie, Galic, Nika, Garber, Kristina, Harvey, Bret C., Jager, Henriette I., Kanarek, Andrew, Pastorok, Robert, Rebarber, Richard, Thorbek, Pernille, & Salice, Chris J. Predicting impacts of chemicals from organisms to ecosystem service delivery: A case study of endocrine disruptor effects on trout. United States. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.344.
Forbes, Valery E., Railsback, Steve, Accolla, Chiara, Birnir, Bjorn, Bruins, Randall J. F., Ducrot, Virginie, Galic, Nika, Garber, Kristina, Harvey, Bret C., Jager, Henriette I., Kanarek, Andrew, Pastorok, Robert, Rebarber, Richard, Thorbek, Pernille, and Salice, Chris J. Tue . "Predicting impacts of chemicals from organisms to ecosystem service delivery: A case study of endocrine disruptor effects on trout". United States. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.344. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1470856.
@article{osti_1470856,
title = {Predicting impacts of chemicals from organisms to ecosystem service delivery: A case study of endocrine disruptor effects on trout},
author = {Forbes, Valery E. and Railsback, Steve and Accolla, Chiara and Birnir, Bjorn and Bruins, Randall J. F. and Ducrot, Virginie and Galic, Nika and Garber, Kristina and Harvey, Bret C. and Jager, Henriette I. and Kanarek, Andrew and Pastorok, Robert and Rebarber, Richard and Thorbek, Pernille and Salice, Chris J.},
abstractNote = {We demonstrate how mechanistic modeling can be used to predict whether and how biological responses to chemicals at (sub)organismal levels in model species (i.e., what we typically measure) translate into impacts on ecosystem service delivery (i.e., what we care about). We consider a hypothetical case study of two species of trout, brown trout (Salmo trutta; BT) and greenback cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii stomias; GCT). These hypothetical populations live in a high-altitude river system and are exposed to human-derived estrogen (17α-ethinyl estradiol, EE2), which is the bioactive estrogen in many contraceptives. We use the individual-based model inSTREAM to explore how seasonally varying concentrations of EE2 could influence male spawning and sperm quality. Resulting impacts on trout recruitment and the consequences of such for anglers and for the continued viability of populations of GCT (the state fish of Colorado) are explored. inSTREAM incorporates seasonally varying river flow and temperature, fishing pressure, the influence of EE2 on species-specific demography, and inter-specific competition. The model facilitates quantitative exploration of the relative importance of endocrine disruption and inter-species competition on trout population dynamics. Simulations predicted constant EE2 loading to have more impacts on GCT than BT. However, increasing removal of BT by anglers can enhance the persistence of GCT and offset some of the negative effects of EE2. We demonstrate how models that quantitatively link impacts of chemicals and other stressors on individual survival, growth, and reproduction to consequences for populations and ecosystem service delivery, can be coupled with ecosystem service valuation. The approach facilitates interpretation of toxicity data in an ecological context and gives beneficiaries of ecosystem services a more explicit role in management decisions. Although challenges remain, this type of approach may be particularly helpful for site-specific risk assessments and those in which tradeoffs and synergies among ecosystem services need to be considered.},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.344},
journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
number = C,
volume = 649,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {8}
}

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