Do CMIP5 Models Reproduce Observed Low‐Frequency North Atlantic Jet Variability?
Abstract
Abstract The magnitude of observed multidecadal variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter is at the upper end of the range simulated by climate models and a clear explanation for this remains elusive. Recent research shows that observed multidecadal winter NAO variability is more strongly associated with North Atlantic (NA) jet strength than latitude, thus motivating a comprehensive comparison of NA jet and NAO variability across the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Our results show that the observed peak in multidecadal jet strength variability is even more unusual than NAO variability when compared to the model‐simulated range across 133 historical CMIP5 simulations. Some CMIP5 models appear capable of reproducing the observed low‐frequency peak in jet strength, but there are too few simulations of each model to clearly identify which. It is also found that an observed strong multidecadal correlation between jet strength and NAO since the mid‐nineteenth century may be specific to this period.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[1];
[2];
[3]
- British Antarctic Survey Cambridge UK
- Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK
- Department of Physics, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics University of Oxford Oxford UK
- Publication Date:
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1461208
- Resource Type:
- Publisher's Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Volume: 45 Journal Issue: 14; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Citation Formats
Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Lu, Hua, Eade, Rosie, and Woollings, Tim. Do CMIP5 Models Reproduce Observed Low‐Frequency North Atlantic Jet Variability?. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1029/2018GL078965.
Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Lu, Hua, Eade, Rosie, & Woollings, Tim. Do CMIP5 Models Reproduce Observed Low‐Frequency North Atlantic Jet Variability?. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078965
Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Lu, Hua, Eade, Rosie, and Woollings, Tim. Fri .
"Do CMIP5 Models Reproduce Observed Low‐Frequency North Atlantic Jet Variability?". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078965.
@article{osti_1461208,
title = {Do CMIP5 Models Reproduce Observed Low‐Frequency North Atlantic Jet Variability?},
author = {Bracegirdle, Thomas J. and Lu, Hua and Eade, Rosie and Woollings, Tim},
abstractNote = {Abstract The magnitude of observed multidecadal variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter is at the upper end of the range simulated by climate models and a clear explanation for this remains elusive. Recent research shows that observed multidecadal winter NAO variability is more strongly associated with North Atlantic (NA) jet strength than latitude, thus motivating a comprehensive comparison of NA jet and NAO variability across the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Our results show that the observed peak in multidecadal jet strength variability is even more unusual than NAO variability when compared to the model‐simulated range across 133 historical CMIP5 simulations. Some CMIP5 models appear capable of reproducing the observed low‐frequency peak in jet strength, but there are too few simulations of each model to clearly identify which. It is also found that an observed strong multidecadal correlation between jet strength and NAO since the mid‐nineteenth century may be specific to this period.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL078965},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 14,
volume = 45,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Jul 20 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Fri Jul 20 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078965
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