Positive tropical marine low-cloud cover feedback inferred from cloud-controlling factors

Qu, Xin; Hall, Alex; Klein, Stephen A.; DeAngelis, Anthony M.

doi:10.1002/2015GL065627

Title: Positive tropical marine low-cloud cover feedback inferred from cloud-controlling factors

Journal Article · Mon Sep 28 00:00:00 EDT 2015 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065627 · OSTI ID:1438791

Qu, Xin ^[1]; Hall, Alex ^[1]; Klein, Stephen A. ^[2]; DeAngelis, Anthony M. ^[1]

Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison

Differences in simulations of tropical marine low-cloud cover (LCC) feedback are sources of significant spread in temperature responses of climate models to anthropogenic forcing. Here we show that in models the feedback is mainly driven by three large-scale changes—a strengthening tropical inversion, increasing surface latent heat flux, and an increasing vertical moisture gradient. Variations in the LCC response to these changes alone account for most of the spread in model-projected 21st century LCC changes. A methodology is devised to constrain the LCC response observationally using sea surface temperature (SST) as a surrogate for the latent heat flux and moisture gradient. In models where the current climate's LCC sensitivities to inversion strength and SST variations are consistent with observed, LCC decreases systematically, which would increase absorption of solar radiation. These results support a positive LCC feedback. Finally, correcting biases in the sensitivities will be an important step toward more credible simulation of cloud feedbacks.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 1438791

Report Number(s):: LLNL-JRNL--740988

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 18 Vol. 42; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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