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Title: Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevancemore » for sustainable development pathways.« less
Authors:
ORCiD logo [1] ;  [1] ;  [1] ;  [1] ;  [1] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [2] ;  [5] ;  [6] ;  [7] ;  [7] ;  [8] ;  [7] ;  [9] ;  [8] ;  [7] ;  [10] ;  [11] more »;  [4] ;  [6] « less
  1. ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland)
  2. Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
  3. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (The Netherlands); Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (The Netherlands)
  4. CICERO, Oslo (Norway)
  5. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  6. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (The Netherlands)
  7. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
  8. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany)
  9. School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol (United Kingdom)
  10. ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland); International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
  11. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Climate Analytics, Berlin (Germany)
Publication Date:
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-131570
Journal ID: ISSN 1364-503X
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830; FP7-IDEAS-ERC-617518; 261821 (HappiEVA) and 244551; 01LS1613A
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 376; Journal Issue: 2119; Journal ID: ISSN 1364-503X
Publisher:
The Royal Society Publishing
Research Org:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; climate extremes; 1.5°C scenarios; land-use changes; regional climate change; climate projections; land–climate interactions
OSTI Identifier:
1437030

Seneviratne, Sonia I., Wartenburger, Richard, Guillod, Benoit P., Hirsch, Annette L., Vogel, Martha M., Brovkin, Victor, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Schaller, Nathalie, Boysen, Lena, Calvin, Katherine V., Doelman, Jonathan, Greve, Peter, Havlik, Petr, Humpenoder, Florian, Krisztin, Tamas, Mitchell, Daniel, Popp, Alexander, Riahi, Keywan, Rogelj, Joeri, Schleussner, Carl -Friedrich, Sillmann, Jana, and Stehfest, Elke. Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C. United States: N. p., Web. doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0450.
Seneviratne, Sonia I., Wartenburger, Richard, Guillod, Benoit P., Hirsch, Annette L., Vogel, Martha M., Brovkin, Victor, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Schaller, Nathalie, Boysen, Lena, Calvin, Katherine V., Doelman, Jonathan, Greve, Peter, Havlik, Petr, Humpenoder, Florian, Krisztin, Tamas, Mitchell, Daniel, Popp, Alexander, Riahi, Keywan, Rogelj, Joeri, Schleussner, Carl -Friedrich, Sillmann, Jana, & Stehfest, Elke. Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C. United States. doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0450.
Seneviratne, Sonia I., Wartenburger, Richard, Guillod, Benoit P., Hirsch, Annette L., Vogel, Martha M., Brovkin, Victor, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Schaller, Nathalie, Boysen, Lena, Calvin, Katherine V., Doelman, Jonathan, Greve, Peter, Havlik, Petr, Humpenoder, Florian, Krisztin, Tamas, Mitchell, Daniel, Popp, Alexander, Riahi, Keywan, Rogelj, Joeri, Schleussner, Carl -Friedrich, Sillmann, Jana, and Stehfest, Elke. 2018. "Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C". United States. doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0450. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1437030.
@article{osti_1437030,
title = {Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C},
author = {Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Wartenburger, Richard and Guillod, Benoit P. and Hirsch, Annette L. and Vogel, Martha M. and Brovkin, Victor and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Schaller, Nathalie and Boysen, Lena and Calvin, Katherine V. and Doelman, Jonathan and Greve, Peter and Havlik, Petr and Humpenoder, Florian and Krisztin, Tamas and Mitchell, Daniel and Popp, Alexander and Riahi, Keywan and Rogelj, Joeri and Schleussner, Carl -Friedrich and Sillmann, Jana and Stehfest, Elke},
abstractNote = {Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.},
doi = {10.1098/rsta.2016.0450},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
number = 2119,
volume = 376,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {4}
}