Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Vogel, Martha M.; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V.; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenoder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl -Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke

doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0450

Title: Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

Journal Article · 02 April 2018 · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0450 · OSTI ID:1437030

^[1]; Wartenburger, Richard ^[1]; Guillod, Benoit P. ^[1]; Hirsch, Annette L. ^[1]; Vogel, Martha M. ^[1]; Brovkin, Victor ^[2]; van Vuuren, Detlef P. ^[3]; Schaller, Nathalie ^[4]; Boysen, Lena ^[2]; Calvin, Katherine V. ^[5]; Doelman, Jonathan ^[6]; Greve, Peter ^[7]; Havlik, Petr ^[7]; Humpenoder, Florian ^[8]; Krisztin, Tamas ^[7]; Mitchell, Daniel ^[9]; Popp, Alexander ^[8]; Riahi, Keywan ^[7]; Rogelj, Joeri ^[10]; Schleussner, Carl -Friedrich ^[11] more »

ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland)
Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (The Netherlands); Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (The Netherlands)
CICERO, Oslo (Norway)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (The Netherlands)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany)
School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol (United Kingdom)
ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland); International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Climate Analytics, Berlin (Germany)

Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830; FP7-IDEAS-ERC-617518; 261821 (HappiEVA) and 244551; 01LS1613A

OSTI ID:: 1437030

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-131570

Journal Information:: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 376, Issue 2119; ISSN 1364-503X

Publisher:: The Royal Society PublishingCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 44 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (103)

Investigating soil moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: A review Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Corti, Thierry; Davin, Edouard L. Earth-Science Reviews, Vol. 99, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004	journal	May 2010
The limits to global-warming mitigation by terrestrial carbon removal: THE LIMITS OF TERRESTRIAL CARBON REMOVAL Boysen, Lena R.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Gerten, Dieter Earth's Future, Vol. 5, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000469	journal	May 2017
Mega-heatwave temperatures due to combined soil desiccation and atmospheric heat accumulation Miralles, Diego G.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; van Heerwaarden, Chiel C. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2141	journal	April 2014
The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality Calvin, Katherine; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Clarke, Leon Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.010	journal	January 2017
Global consequences of afforestation and bioenergy cultivation on ecosystem service indicators Krause, Andreas; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Bayer, Anita D. Biogeosciences, Vol. 14, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4829-2017	journal	January 2017
Regions of Strong Coupling Between Soil Moisture and Precipitation Koster, R. D. Science, Vol. 305, Issue 5687 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1100217	journal	August 2004
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1	journal	April 2012
Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework Wartenburger, Richard; Hirschi, Martin; Donat, Markus G. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3609-2017	journal	January 2017
Present‐day irrigation mitigates heat extremes Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard L.; Lawrence, David M. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 122, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025740	journal	February 2017
Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections Orlowsky, B.; Seneviratne, S. I. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 17, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1765-2013	journal	January 2013
Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Nicholls, Neville; Easterling, David Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139177245.006	book	May 2012
Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?: SCENARIO DEPENDENCE OF EXTREME RAIN Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin M. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065854	journal	October 2015
Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye Scientific Reports, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep46432	journal	April 2017
Climate engineering of vegetated land for hot extremes mitigation: An Earth system model sensitivity study: Clim. eng. for hot extremes mitigation Wilhelm, Micah; Davin, Edouard L.; Seneviratne, Sonia I. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 120, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022293	journal	April 2015
Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale Mueller, B.; Seneviratne, S. I. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 109, Issue 31 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1204330109	journal	July 2012
Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble: CLIMATE EXTREMES IN GLACE-CMIP5 Lorenz, Ruth; Argüeso, Daniel; Donat, Markus G. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 121, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024053	journal	January 2016
Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andy J. Nature, Vol. 529, Issue 7587 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16542	journal	January 2016
Local temperature response to land cover and management change driven by non-radiative processes Bright, Ryan M.; Davin, Edouard; O’Halloran, Thomas Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3250	journal	March 2017
Land–atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Lüthi, Daniel; Litschi, Michael Nature, Vol. 443, Issue 7108 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature05095	journal	September 2006
The representative concentration pathways: an overview van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Edmonds, Jae; Kainuma, Mikiko Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z	journal	August 2011
Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data: Indices for monitoring changes in extremes Zhang, Xuebin; Alexander, Lisa; Hegerl, Gabriele C. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.147	journal	October 2011
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M. Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-327-2016	journal	January 2016
Uncertainties in climate responses to past land cover change: First results from the LUCID intercomparison study Pitman, A. J.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Cruz, F. T. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039076	journal	January 2009
Land radiative management as contributor to regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Phipps, Steven J.; Pitman, Andrew J. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 11, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-017-0057-5	journal	January 2018
An analogue model to derive additional climate change scenarios from existing GCM simulations Huntingford, C.; Cox, P. M. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 16, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820000067	journal	August 2000
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009	journal	January 2017
Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; Gernaat, David E. H. J. Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.008	journal	January 2017
Simplicity amid Complexity Held, I. Science, Vol. 343, Issue 6176 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1248447	journal	March 2014
The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016	journal	January 2016
Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes Fischer, E. M.; Sedláček, J.; Hawkins, E. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062018	journal	December 2014
Historical Land-Cover Change Impacts on Climate: Comparative Assessment of LUCID and CMIP5 Multimodel Experiments Lejeune, Quentin; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Davin, Edouard L. Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0213.1	journal	February 2017
Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015	journal	January 2017
Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design Mitchell, Daniel; AchutaRao, Krishna; Allen, Myles Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017	journal	January 2017
Impact of soil moisture‐climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE‐CMIP5 experiment Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wilhelm, Micah; Stanelle, Tanja Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50956	journal	October 2013
Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture‐temperature feedbacks Vogel, M. M.; Orth, R.; Cheruy, F. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071235	journal	February 2017
The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research Hurrell, James W.; Holland, M. M.; Gent, P. R. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 94, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00121.1	journal	September 2013
Characterizing half-a-degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets: Characterizing half-a-degree difference James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.457	journal	January 2017
Contrasting response of European forest and grassland energy exchange to heatwaves Teuling, Adriaan J.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Stöckli, Reto Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo950	journal	September 2010
Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions: Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions Samset, B. H.; Sand, M.; Smith, C. J. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076079	journal	January 2018
Preferential cooling of hot extremes from cropland albedo management Davin, Edouard L.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Ciais, Philippe Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 27 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1317323111	journal	June 2014
RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; den Elzen, Michel G. J. Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0152-3	journal	August 2011
Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe Hirschi, Martin; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Alexandrov, Vesselin Nature Geoscience, Vol. 4, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1032	journal	December 2010
Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios Jones, Andrew D.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Collins, William D. Climatic Change, Vol. 131, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1411-5	journal	April 2015
Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension Orlowsky, Boris; Seneviratne, Sonia I. Climatic Change, Vol. 110, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0122-9	journal	July 2011
Forests and Climate Change: Forcings, Feedbacks, and the Climate Benefits of Forests Bonan, G. B. Science, Vol. 320, Issue 5882 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1155121	journal	June 2008
The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century Fricko, Oliver; Havlik, Petr; Rogelj, Joeri Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.004	journal	January 2017
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways Popp, Alexander; Calvin, Katherine; Fujimori, Shinichiro Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.002	journal	January 2017
Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover Alkama, R.; Cescatti, A. Science, Vol. 351, Issue 6273 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac8083	journal	February 2016
Can climate‐effective land management reduce regional warming? Hirsch, A. L.; Wilhelm, M.; Davin, E. L. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 122, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD026125	journal	February 2017
Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D. A. Global Change Biology, Vol. 22, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13337	journal	June 2016
Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate: CLIMATE EXTREMES INDICES IN CMIP5 Sillmann, J.; Kharin, V. V.; Zhang, X. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50203	journal	February 2013
Simulations of HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts) Tier-1 experiments based on the CAM4-2degree atmospheric model and on the CLM4-2degree land model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research - Department of Energy (NCAR-DOE) Beyerle, Urs World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ https://doi.org/10.26050/wdcc/happi-global-cam4-2degree	dataset	January 2019
Simulations of HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts) Tier-1 experiments based on the ECHAM6.3 atmospheric model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) Lierhammer, Ludwig; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Legutke, Stephanie World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ https://doi.org/10.26050/wdcc/happi-global-echam6.3_v2	dataset	January 2019
Simulations of HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts) Tier-1 experiments based on the MIROC5 atmospheric model of the University of Tokyo, NIES and JAMSTEC (MIROC) Shiogama, Hideo World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ https://doi.org/10.26050/wdcc/happi-global-miroc5	dataset	January 2019
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C Schleussner, C. -F.; Lissner, T. K.; Fischer, E. M. Earth System Dynamics Discussions, Vol. 6, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2447-2015	journal	January 2015
Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections Orlowsky, B.; Seneviratne, S. I. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, Vol. 9, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-9-13773-2012	journal	January 2012
The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica DeConto, Robert M.; Pollard, David; Alley, Richard B. Nature, Vol. 593, Issue 7857 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03427-0	journal	May 2021
Characterizing half-a-degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000128813	text	January 2017
Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): Background and experimental design Mitchell, Daniel; AchutaRao, Krishna; Allen, Myles ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000128890	text	January 2017
Global consequences of afforestation and bioenergy cultivation on ecosystem service indicators Krause, Andreas; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Bayer, Anita D. Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000076714#verlagsausgabe	text	January 2017
Simulations of HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts) Tier-1 experiments based on the ECHAM6.3 atmospheric model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) Lierhammer, Ludwig; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Legutke, Stephanie World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ https://doi.org/10.1594/wdcc/happi-mip-global-echam6.3	dataset	January 2017
Global changes in extreme events: Regional and seasonal dimension Orlowsky, Boris; Seneviratne, Sonia I. ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000040988	text	January 2012
Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; Gernaat, David E. H. J. ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000191577	text	January 2017
Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: An interactive plotting framework Wartenburger, Richard; Hirschi, Martin; Donat, Markus G. ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000197674	text	January 2017
The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: Rationale and experimental design Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000060650	text	January 2016
Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): Background and experimental design Mitchell, D.; AchutaRao, K.; Allen, M. Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository https://doi.org/10.17863/cam.48389	text	January 2017
Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- andlong-term CMIP5 projections Orlowsky, Boris; Seneviratne, Sonia I. ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000073994	text	January 2013
Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D. A. Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000061740	text	January 2016
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: The case of 1.5 °c and 2 °c Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M. ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000116569	text	January 2016
Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land Hirsch, Annette L.; Guillod, Benoît; Seneviratne, Sonia I. ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000260991	text	January 2018
Investigating soil moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: A review Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Corti, Thierry; Davin, Edouard L. Elsevier https://doi.org/10.48350/167154	text	January 2010
Impact of soil moisture‐climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE‐CMIP5 experiment Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wilhelm, Micah; Stanelle, Tanja Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50956	journal	October 2013
Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate: CLIMATE EXTREMES INDICES IN CMIP5 Sillmann, J.; Kharin, V. V.; Zhang, X. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50203	journal	February 2013
Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data: Indices for monitoring changes in extremes Zhang, Xuebin; Alexander, Lisa; Hegerl, Gabriele C. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.147	journal	October 2011
An analogue model to derive additional climate change scenarios from existing GCM simulations Huntingford, C.; Cox, P. M. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 16, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820000067	journal	August 2000
The representative concentration pathways: an overview van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Edmonds, Jae; Kainuma, Mikiko Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z	journal	August 2011
RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; den Elzen, Michel G. J. Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0152-3	journal	August 2011
Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios Jones, Andrew D.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Collins, William D. Climatic Change, Vol. 131, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1411-5	journal	April 2015
Investigating soil moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: A review Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Corti, Thierry; Davin, Edouard L. Earth-Science Reviews, Vol. 99, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004	journal	May 2010
Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015	journal	January 2017
The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century Fricko, Oliver; Havlik, Petr; Rogelj, Joeri Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.004	journal	January 2017
The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality Calvin, Katherine; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Clarke, Leon Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.010	journal	January 2017
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways Popp, Alexander; Calvin, Katherine; Fujimori, Shinichiro Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.002	journal	January 2017
Land–atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Lüthi, Daniel; Litschi, Michael Nature, Vol. 443, Issue 7108 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature05095	journal	September 2006
Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andy J. Nature, Vol. 529, Issue 7587 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16542	journal	January 2016
Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe Hirschi, Martin; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Alexandrov, Vesselin Nature Geoscience, Vol. 4, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1032	journal	December 2010
Contrasting response of European forest and grassland energy exchange to heatwaves Teuling, Adriaan J.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Stöckli, Reto Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo950	journal	September 2010
Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye Scientific Reports, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep46432	journal	April 2017
Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale Mueller, B.; Seneviratne, S. I. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 109, Issue 31 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1204330109	journal	July 2012
Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D. A. Global Change Biology, Vol. 22, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13337	journal	June 2016
Regions of Strong Coupling Between Soil Moisture and Precipitation Koster, R. D. Science, Vol. 305, Issue 5687 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1100217	journal	August 2004
Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover Alkama, R.; Cescatti, A. Science, Vol. 351, Issue 6273 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac8083	journal	February 2016
Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): Background and experimental design Mitchell, D.; AchutaRao, K.; Allen, M. Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository https://doi.org/10.17863/cam.48389	text	January 2017
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: The case of 1.5 °c and 2 °c Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M. ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000116569	text	January 2016
Characterizing half-a-degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000128813	text	January 2017
Climate engineering of vegetated land for hot extremes mitigation: An Earth system model sensitivity study Wilhelm, Micah; Davin, Edouard L.; Seneviratne, Sonia I. American Geophysical Union https://doi.org/10.48350/167142	text	January 2015
Preferential cooling of hot extremes from cropland albedo management Davin, Edouard L.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Ciais, Philippe National Academy of Sciences NAS https://doi.org/10.48350/167146	text	January 2014
When tails wag the decision: The role of distributional tails on climate impacts on decision-relevant time-scales Garner, Gregory G.; Keller, Klaus arXiv https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1710.10277	preprint	January 2017
Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections Orlowsky, B.; Seneviratne, S. I. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 17, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1765-2013	journal	January 2013
Simulations of HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts) Tier-1 experiments based on the CAM4-2degree atmospheric model and on the CLM4-2degree land model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research - Department of Energy (NCAR-DOE) Beyerle, Urs World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ https://doi.org/10.26050/wdcc/happi-global-cam4-2degree	dataset	January 2019
Simulations of HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts) Tier-1 experiments based on the ECHAM6.3 atmospheric model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) Lierhammer, Ludwig; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Legutke, Stephanie World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ https://doi.org/10.26050/wdcc/happi-global-echam6.3_v2	dataset	January 2019
Simulations of HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts) Tier-1 experiments based on the MIROC5 atmospheric model of the University of Tokyo, NIES and JAMSTEC (MIROC) Shiogama, Hideo World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ https://doi.org/10.26050/wdcc/happi-global-miroc5	dataset	January 2019
Supplementary material from "Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C" Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P. Figshare https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4033750.v1	collection	January 2018

Cited By (15)

Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land Hirsch, Annette L.; Guillod, Benoit P.; Seneviratne, Sonia I. Earth's Future, Vol. 6, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017ef000744	journal	March 2018
Detectable Impacts of the Past Half‐Degree Global Warming on Summertime Hot Extremes in China Chen, Yang; Zhai, Panmao; Zhou, Baiquan Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl079216	journal	July 2018
Half‐a‐Degree Matters for Reducing and Delaying Global Land Exposure to Combined Daytime‐Nighttime Hot Extremes Chen, Yang; Zhou, Baiquan; Zhai, Panmao Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001202	journal	August 2019
Investigating the Role of the Relative Humidity in the Co‐Occurrence of Temperature and Heat Stress Extremes in CMIP5 Projections Brouillet, Audrey; Joussaume, Sylvie Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl084156	journal	October 2019
The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Rogelj, Joeri; Séférian, Roland Nature, Vol. 558, Issue 7708 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0181-4	journal	June 2018
Intensity and Stationarity Analysis of Land Use Change Based on CART Algorithm Sang, Xiao; Guo, Qiaozhen; Wu, Xiaoxu Scientific Reports, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-48586-3	journal	August 2019
The myriad challenges of the Paris Agreement Mitchell, Dann; Allen, Myles R.; Hall, Jim W. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 376, Issue 2119 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2018.0066	journal	April 2018
Land-atmospheric feedbacks during droughts and heatwaves: state of the science and current challenges: Land feedbacks during droughts and heatwaves Miralles, Diego G.; Gentine, Pierre; Seneviratne, Sonia I. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Vol. 1436, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.13912	journal	June 2018
Stress Testing the Capacity of Health Systems to Manage Climate Change-Related Shocks and Stresses Ebi, Kristie; Berry, Peter; Hayes, Katie International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 15, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15112370	journal	October 2018
Drought Management Planning Policy: From Europe to Spain Hervás-Gámez, Carmen; Delgado-Ramos, Fernando Sustainability, Vol. 11, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.3390/su11071862	journal	March 2019
Evaluating and improving the Community Land Model's sensitivity to land cover Meier, Ronny; Davin, Edouard L.; Lejeune, Quentin Biogeosciences, Vol. 15, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-4731-2018	journal	January 2018
Arctic amplification under global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C in NorESM1-Happi Graff, Lise S.; Iversen, Trond; Bethke, Ingo Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 10, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-569-2019	journal	January 2019
Land-atmospheric feedbacks during droughts and heatwaves: state of the science and current challenges Miralles, Diego G.; Gentine, Pierre; Seneviratne, Sonia I. ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000323487	text	January 2019
Evaluating and improving the Community Land Model’s sensitivity to land cover Meier, Ronny; Davin, Edouard Léopold; Lejeune, Quentin ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000283274	text	January 2018
Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land Hirsch, Annette L.; Guillod, Benoît; Seneviratne, Sonia I. ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000260991	text	January 2018

Linked Research (4)

Figures / Tables (16)

Similar Records

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

Journal Article · 2018 · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · OSTI ID:1455294

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; +19 more

Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land

Journal Article · 2018 · Earth's Future · OSTI ID:1544313

Hirsch, Annette L.; Guillod, Benoit P.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; +13 more

SSP‐Based Land‐Use Change Scenarios: A Critical Uncertainty in Future Regional Climate Change Projections

Journal Article · 2021 · Earth's Future · OSTI ID:1772688

Bukovsky, Melissa S.; Gao, Jing; Mearns, Linda O.; +1 more

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
climate extremes
1.5°C scenarios
land-use changes
regional climate change
climate projections
land–climate interactions

Supplementary Information from Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P. https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.5993119 The current record is supplemented by this text	text	January 2018
Supplementary Information from Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P. https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.5993119.v1 The current record is supplemented by this text	text	January 2018
Supplementary material from "Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C" Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P. https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4033750 The current record is supplemented by this collection	collection	January 2018
Supplementary material from "Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C" Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P. https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4033750.v1 The current record is supplemented by this collection	collection	January 2018