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Title: Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

Abstract

Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevancemore » for sustainable development pathways.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [2];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [7];  [8];  [7];  [9];  [8];  [7];  [10];  [11] more »;  [4];  [6] « less
  1. ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland)
  2. Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
  3. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (The Netherlands); Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (The Netherlands)
  4. CICERO, Oslo (Norway)
  5. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  6. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (The Netherlands)
  7. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
  8. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany)
  9. School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol (United Kingdom)
  10. ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland); International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
  11. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Climate Analytics, Berlin (Germany)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1437030
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-131570
Journal ID: ISSN 1364-503X
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830; FP7-IDEAS-ERC-617518; 261821 (HappiEVA) and 244551; 01LS1613A
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 376; Journal Issue: 2119; Journal ID: ISSN 1364-503X
Publisher:
The Royal Society Publishing
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; climate extremes; 1.5°C scenarios; land-use changes; regional climate change; climate projections; land–climate interactions

Citation Formats

Seneviratne, Sonia I., Wartenburger, Richard, Guillod, Benoit P., Hirsch, Annette L., Vogel, Martha M., Brovkin, Victor, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Schaller, Nathalie, Boysen, Lena, Calvin, Katherine V., Doelman, Jonathan, Greve, Peter, Havlik, Petr, Humpenoder, Florian, Krisztin, Tamas, Mitchell, Daniel, Popp, Alexander, Riahi, Keywan, Rogelj, Joeri, Schleussner, Carl -Friedrich, Sillmann, Jana, and Stehfest, Elke. Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0450.
Seneviratne, Sonia I., Wartenburger, Richard, Guillod, Benoit P., Hirsch, Annette L., Vogel, Martha M., Brovkin, Victor, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Schaller, Nathalie, Boysen, Lena, Calvin, Katherine V., Doelman, Jonathan, Greve, Peter, Havlik, Petr, Humpenoder, Florian, Krisztin, Tamas, Mitchell, Daniel, Popp, Alexander, Riahi, Keywan, Rogelj, Joeri, Schleussner, Carl -Friedrich, Sillmann, Jana, & Stehfest, Elke. Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C. United States. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0450
Seneviratne, Sonia I., Wartenburger, Richard, Guillod, Benoit P., Hirsch, Annette L., Vogel, Martha M., Brovkin, Victor, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Schaller, Nathalie, Boysen, Lena, Calvin, Katherine V., Doelman, Jonathan, Greve, Peter, Havlik, Petr, Humpenoder, Florian, Krisztin, Tamas, Mitchell, Daniel, Popp, Alexander, Riahi, Keywan, Rogelj, Joeri, Schleussner, Carl -Friedrich, Sillmann, Jana, and Stehfest, Elke. Mon . "Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C". United States. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0450. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1437030.
@article{osti_1437030,
title = {Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C},
author = {Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Wartenburger, Richard and Guillod, Benoit P. and Hirsch, Annette L. and Vogel, Martha M. and Brovkin, Victor and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Schaller, Nathalie and Boysen, Lena and Calvin, Katherine V. and Doelman, Jonathan and Greve, Peter and Havlik, Petr and Humpenoder, Florian and Krisztin, Tamas and Mitchell, Daniel and Popp, Alexander and Riahi, Keywan and Rogelj, Joeri and Schleussner, Carl -Friedrich and Sillmann, Jana and Stehfest, Elke},
abstractNote = {Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.},
doi = {10.1098/rsta.2016.0450},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
number = 2119,
volume = 376,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Apr 02 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Mon Apr 02 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}

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Cited by: 40 works
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Figures / Tables:

Figure 1 Figure 1: Empirical scaling relationship (ESR) between changes in yearly maximum daily midday temperature and global temperature warming in the Mediterranean region based on simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), including explanatory annotations. The red line indicates the multi-model mean of the RCP8.5 CMIP5more » simulations, and the blue line indicates the multi-model mean of the RCP4.5 CMIP5 simulations (from ref. [8], adapted from ref. [5]).« less

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Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: The case of 1.5 °c and 2 °c
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journal, April 2015

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  • Climatic Change, Vol. 131, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1411-5

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journal, May 2010


Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century
journal, January 2017


The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century
journal, January 2017


The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality
journal, January 2017


Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
journal, January 2017


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journal, September 2006

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Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets
journal, January 2016

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Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe
journal, December 2010

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  • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 4, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1032

Contrasting response of European forest and grassland energy exchange to heatwaves
journal, September 2010

  • Teuling, Adriaan J.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Stöckli, Reto
  • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo950

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming
journal, April 2017

  • Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye
  • Scientific Reports, Vol. 7, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1038/srep46432

Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale
journal, July 2012

  • Mueller, B.; Seneviratne, S. I.
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  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1204330109

Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison
journal, June 2016

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Regions of Strong Coupling Between Soil Moisture and Precipitation
journal, August 2004


Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover
journal, February 2016


Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): Background and experimental design
text, January 2017

  • Mitchell, D.; AchutaRao, K.; Allen, M.
  • Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
  • DOI: 10.17863/cam.48389

Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: The case of 1.5 °c and 2 °c
text, January 2016


Characterizing half-a-degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets
text, January 2017


Climate engineering of vegetated land for hot extremes mitigation: An Earth system model sensitivity study
text, January 2015

  • Wilhelm, Micah; Davin, Edouard L.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.
  • American Geophysical Union
  • DOI: 10.48350/167142

Preferential cooling of hot extremes from cropland albedo management
text, January 2014

  • Davin, Edouard L.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Ciais, Philippe
  • National Academy of Sciences NAS
  • DOI: 10.48350/167146

Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections
journal, January 2013


Works referencing / citing this record:

Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land
journal, March 2018

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Half‐a‐Degree Matters for Reducing and Delaying Global Land Exposure to Combined Daytime‐Nighttime Hot Extremes
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Investigating the Role of the Relative Humidity in the Co‐Occurrence of Temperature and Heat Stress Extremes in CMIP5 Projections
journal, October 2019

  • Brouillet, Audrey; Joussaume, Sylvie
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 20
  • DOI: 10.1029/2019gl084156

The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming
journal, June 2018


Intensity and Stationarity Analysis of Land Use Change Based on CART Algorithm
journal, August 2019


The myriad challenges of the Paris Agreement
journal, April 2018

  • Mitchell, Dann; Allen, Myles R.; Hall, Jim W.
  • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 376, Issue 2119
  • DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2018.0066

Land-atmospheric feedbacks during droughts and heatwaves: state of the science and current challenges: Land feedbacks during droughts and heatwaves
journal, June 2018

  • Miralles, Diego G.; Gentine, Pierre; Seneviratne, Sonia I.
  • Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Vol. 1436, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1111/nyas.13912

Stress Testing the Capacity of Health Systems to Manage Climate Change-Related Shocks and Stresses
journal, October 2018

  • Ebi, Kristie; Berry, Peter; Hayes, Katie
  • International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 15, Issue 11
  • DOI: 10.3390/ijerph15112370

Drought Management Planning Policy: From Europe to Spain
journal, March 2019

  • Hervás-Gámez, Carmen; Delgado-Ramos, Fernando
  • Sustainability, Vol. 11, Issue 7
  • DOI: 10.3390/su11071862

Evaluating and improving the Community Land Model's sensitivity to land cover
journal, January 2018


Arctic amplification under global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C in NorESM1-Happi
journal, January 2019

  • Graff, Lise S.; Iversen, Trond; Bethke, Ingo
  • Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 10, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.5194/esd-10-569-2019

Land-atmospheric feedbacks during droughts and heatwaves: state of the science and current challenges
text, January 2019


Evaluating and improving the Community Land Model’s sensitivity to land cover
text, January 2018


Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land
text, January 2018