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Title: Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

Abstract

Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevancemore » for sustainable development pathways.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [2];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [7];  [8];  [7];  [9];  [8];  [7];  [10];  [11] more »;  [4];  [6] « less
  1. ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland)
  2. Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
  3. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (The Netherlands); Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (The Netherlands)
  4. CICERO, Oslo (Norway)
  5. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  6. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (The Netherlands)
  7. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
  8. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany)
  9. School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol (United Kingdom)
  10. ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland); International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
  11. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Climate Analytics, Berlin (Germany)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1437030
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-131570
Journal ID: ISSN 1364-503X
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830; FP7-IDEAS-ERC-617518; 261821 (HappiEVA) and 244551; 01LS1613A
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 376; Journal Issue: 2119; Journal ID: ISSN 1364-503X
Publisher:
The Royal Society Publishing
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; climate extremes; 1.5°C scenarios; land-use changes; regional climate change; climate projections; land–climate interactions

Citation Formats

Seneviratne, Sonia I., Wartenburger, Richard, Guillod, Benoit P., Hirsch, Annette L., Vogel, Martha M., Brovkin, Victor, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Schaller, Nathalie, Boysen, Lena, Calvin, Katherine V., Doelman, Jonathan, Greve, Peter, Havlik, Petr, Humpenoder, Florian, Krisztin, Tamas, Mitchell, Daniel, Popp, Alexander, Riahi, Keywan, Rogelj, Joeri, Schleussner, Carl -Friedrich, Sillmann, Jana, and Stehfest, Elke. Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0450.
Seneviratne, Sonia I., Wartenburger, Richard, Guillod, Benoit P., Hirsch, Annette L., Vogel, Martha M., Brovkin, Victor, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Schaller, Nathalie, Boysen, Lena, Calvin, Katherine V., Doelman, Jonathan, Greve, Peter, Havlik, Petr, Humpenoder, Florian, Krisztin, Tamas, Mitchell, Daniel, Popp, Alexander, Riahi, Keywan, Rogelj, Joeri, Schleussner, Carl -Friedrich, Sillmann, Jana, & Stehfest, Elke. Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C. United States. doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0450.
Seneviratne, Sonia I., Wartenburger, Richard, Guillod, Benoit P., Hirsch, Annette L., Vogel, Martha M., Brovkin, Victor, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Schaller, Nathalie, Boysen, Lena, Calvin, Katherine V., Doelman, Jonathan, Greve, Peter, Havlik, Petr, Humpenoder, Florian, Krisztin, Tamas, Mitchell, Daniel, Popp, Alexander, Riahi, Keywan, Rogelj, Joeri, Schleussner, Carl -Friedrich, Sillmann, Jana, and Stehfest, Elke. Mon . "Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C". United States. doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0450. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1437030.
@article{osti_1437030,
title = {Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C},
author = {Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Wartenburger, Richard and Guillod, Benoit P. and Hirsch, Annette L. and Vogel, Martha M. and Brovkin, Victor and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Schaller, Nathalie and Boysen, Lena and Calvin, Katherine V. and Doelman, Jonathan and Greve, Peter and Havlik, Petr and Humpenoder, Florian and Krisztin, Tamas and Mitchell, Daniel and Popp, Alexander and Riahi, Keywan and Rogelj, Joeri and Schleussner, Carl -Friedrich and Sillmann, Jana and Stehfest, Elke},
abstractNote = {Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.},
doi = {10.1098/rsta.2016.0450},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
number = 2119,
volume = 376,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {4}
}

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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Impact of soil moisture‐climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE‐CMIP5 experiment
    journal, October 2013

    • Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wilhelm, Micah; Stanelle, Tanja
    • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 19
    • DOI: 10.1002/grl.50956

    Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data: Indices for monitoring changes in extremes
    journal, October 2011

    • Zhang, Xuebin; Alexander, Lisa; Hegerl, Gabriele C.
    • Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 6
    • DOI: 10.1002/wcc.147

    Characterizing half-a-degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets: Characterizing half-a-degree difference
    journal, January 2017

    • James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
    • Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.1002/wcc.457

    An analogue model to derive additional climate change scenarios from existing GCM simulations
    journal, August 2000


    Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension
    journal, July 2011


    The representative concentration pathways: an overview
    journal, August 2011


    RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C
    journal, August 2011

    • van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; den Elzen, Michel G. J.
    • Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
    • DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0152-3

    Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios
    journal, April 2015

    • Jones, Andrew D.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Collins, William D.
    • Climatic Change, Vol. 131, Issue 4
    • DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1411-5

    Investigating soil moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: A review
    journal, May 2010


    Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm
    journal, January 2017


    The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview
    journal, January 2017


    Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century
    journal, January 2017


    The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century
    journal, January 2017


    The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality
    journal, January 2017


    Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
    journal, January 2017


    Land–atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe
    journal, September 2006

    • Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Lüthi, Daniel; Litschi, Michael
    • Nature, Vol. 443, Issue 7108
    • DOI: 10.1038/nature05095

    Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets
    journal, January 2016

    • Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andy J.
    • Nature, Vol. 529, Issue 7587
    • DOI: 10.1038/nature16542

    Local temperature response to land cover and management change driven by non-radiative processes
    journal, March 2017

    • Bright, Ryan M.; Davin, Edouard; O’Halloran, Thomas
    • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 4
    • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3250

    Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe
    journal, December 2010

    • Hirschi, Martin; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Alexandrov, Vesselin
    • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 4, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1032

    Mega-heatwave temperatures due to combined soil desiccation and atmospheric heat accumulation
    journal, April 2014

    • Miralles, Diego G.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; van Heerwaarden, Chiel C.
    • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 5
    • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2141

    Contrasting response of European forest and grassland energy exchange to heatwaves
    journal, September 2010

    • Teuling, Adriaan J.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Stöckli, Reto
    • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, Issue 10
    • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo950

    Land radiative management as contributor to regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation
    journal, January 2018

    • Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Phipps, Steven J.; Pitman, Andrew J.
    • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 11, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.1038/s41561-017-0057-5

    Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming
    journal, April 2017

    • Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye
    • Scientific Reports, Vol. 7, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.1038/srep46432

    Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale
    journal, July 2012

    • Mueller, B.; Seneviratne, S. I.
    • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 109, Issue 31
    • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1204330109

    Preferential cooling of hot extremes from cropland albedo management
    journal, June 2014

    • Davin, Edouard L.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Ciais, Philippe
    • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 27
    • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1317323111

    Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison
    journal, June 2016

    • Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.
    • Global Change Biology, Vol. 22, Issue 12
    • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13337

    Regions of Strong Coupling Between Soil Moisture and Precipitation
    journal, August 2004


    Simplicity amid Complexity
    journal, March 2014


    Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover
    journal, February 2016


    Global consequences of afforestation and bioenergy cultivation on ecosystem service indicators
    journal, January 2017

    • Krause, Andreas; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Bayer, Anita D.
    • Biogeosciences, Vol. 14, Issue 21
    • DOI: 10.5194/bg-14-4829-2017

    Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C
    journal, January 2016

    • Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M.
    • Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 7, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.5194/esd-7-327-2016

    Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework
    journal, January 2017

    • Wartenburger, Richard; Hirschi, Martin; Donat, Markus G.
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, Issue 9
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-3609-2017

    Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design
    journal, January 2017

    • Mitchell, Daniel; AchutaRao, Krishna; Allen, Myles
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017

    The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design
    journal, January 2016

    • Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 9
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016

    Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections
    journal, January 2013


    The myriad challenges of the Paris Agreement
    journal, April 2018

    • Mitchell, Dann; Allen, Myles R.; Hall, Jim W.
    • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 376, Issue 2119
    • DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2018.0066

    The myriad challenges of the Paris Agreement
    journal, April 2018

    • Mitchell, Dann; Allen, Myles R.; Hall, Jim W.
    • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 376, Issue 2119
    • DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2018.0066