Forest response to rising CO2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land

Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Chen, Yang; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Koven, Charles D.; Lindsay, Keith; Pritchard, Michael S.; Swann, Abigail L.  S.; Randerson, James T.

doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0144-7

Title: Forest response to rising CO₂ drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land

Journal Article · Fri Apr 27 00:00:00 EDT 2018 · Nature Climate Change

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0144-7 · OSTI ID:1436927

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^[4]; Lindsay, Keith ^[5]; Pritchard, Michael S. ^[2];

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Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States); Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States)
Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States)
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)

Understanding how anthropogenic CO₂ emissions will influence future precipitation is critical for sustainably managing ecosystems, particularly for drought-sensitive tropical forests. Although tropical precipitation change remains uncertain, nearly all models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 predict a strengthening zonal precipitation asymmetry by 2100, with relative increases over Asian and African tropical forests and decreases over South American forests. Here we show that the plant physiological response to increasing CO₂ is a primary mechanism responsible for this pattern. Applying a simulation design in the Community Earth System Model in which CO₂ increases are isolated over individual continents, we demonstrate that different circulation, moisture and stability changes arise over each continent due to declines in stomatal conductance and transpiration. The sum of local atmospheric responses over individual continents explains the pan-tropical precipitation asymmetry. Our analysis suggests that South American forests may be more vulnerable to rising CO₂ than Asian or African forests.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1436927

Journal Information:: Nature Climate Change, Journal Name: Nature Climate Change Journal Issue: 5 Vol. 8; ISSN 1758-678X

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Surface Warming and Atmospheric Circulation Dominate Rainfall Changes Over Tropical Rainforests Under Global Warming Saint‐Lu, Marion; Chadwick, Robin; Lambert, F. Hugo Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl085295	journal	November 2019
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The effect of plant physiological responses to rising CO2 on global streamflow Fowler, Megan D.; Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Randerson, James T. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0602-x	journal	October 2019
Limiting the high impacts of Amazon forest dieback with no-regrets science and policy action Lapola, David M.; Pinho, Patricia; Quesada, Carlos A. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, Issue 46 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1721770115	journal	November 2018
Climatic sensitivity of species’ vegetative and reproductive phenology in a Hawaiian montane wet forest Pau, Stephanie; Cordell, Susan; Ostertag, Rebecca Biotropica, Vol. 52, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1111/btp.12801	journal	May 2020
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Title: Forest response to rising CO2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land

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Title: Forest response to rising CO₂ drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land