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Title: Exploring the impacts of a national U.S. CO 2 tax and revenue recycling options with a coupled electricity-economy model

This paper provides a comprehensive exploration of the impacts of economy-wide CO 2 taxes in the U.S. simulated using a detailed electric sector model [the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)] linked with a computable general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy [the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's U.S. Regional Energy Policy (USREP) model]. We implement various tax trajectories and options for using the revenue collected by the tax and describe their impact on household welfare and its distribution across income levels. Overall, we find that our top-down/bottom-up models affects estimates of the distribution and cost of emission reductions as well as the amount of revenue collected, but that these are mostly insensitive to the way the revenue is recycled. We find that substantial abatement opportunities through fuel switching and renewable penetration in the electricity sector allow the economy to accommodate extensive emissions reductions at relatively low cost. While welfare impacts are largely determined by the choice of revenue recycling scheme, all tax levels and schemes provide net benefits when accounting for the avoided global climate change benefits of emission reductions. Recycling revenue through capital income tax rebates is more efficient than labor income tax rebates or uniformmore » transfers to households. While capital tax rebates substantially reduce the overall costs of emission abatement, they profit high income households the most and are regressive. We more generally identify a clear trade-off between equity and efficiency across the various recycling options. However, we show through a set of hybrid recycling schemes that it is possible to limit inequalities in impacts, particularly those on the lowest income households, at relatively little incremental cost.« less
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [2] ;  [3]
  1. Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); HEC Montreal, QC (Canada)
  2. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  3. Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
Publication Date:
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-6A20-70282
Journal ID: ISSN 2010-0078
Grant/Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Climate Change Economics
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 09; Journal Issue: 01; Journal ID: ISSN 2010-0078
Research Org:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of International Affairs (IA), Climate Change Policy and Technology (IA-40)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; climate policy; CO2 tax; carbon tax; distributional impacts; equity; progressivity; household welfare; double-dividends; model coupling; top-down/bottom-up coupling
OSTI Identifier:
1431047

Caron, Justin, Cohen, Stuart M, Brown, Maxwell, and Reilly, John M. Exploring the impacts of a national U.S. CO2 tax and revenue recycling options with a coupled electricity-economy model. United States: N. p., Web. doi:10.1142/S2010007818400158.
Caron, Justin, Cohen, Stuart M, Brown, Maxwell, & Reilly, John M. Exploring the impacts of a national U.S. CO2 tax and revenue recycling options with a coupled electricity-economy model. United States. doi:10.1142/S2010007818400158.
Caron, Justin, Cohen, Stuart M, Brown, Maxwell, and Reilly, John M. 2018. "Exploring the impacts of a national U.S. CO2 tax and revenue recycling options with a coupled electricity-economy model". United States. doi:10.1142/S2010007818400158. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1431047.
@article{osti_1431047,
title = {Exploring the impacts of a national U.S. CO2 tax and revenue recycling options with a coupled electricity-economy model},
author = {Caron, Justin and Cohen, Stuart M and Brown, Maxwell and Reilly, John M.},
abstractNote = {This paper provides a comprehensive exploration of the impacts of economy-wide CO2 taxes in the U.S. simulated using a detailed electric sector model [the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)] linked with a computable general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy [the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's U.S. Regional Energy Policy (USREP) model]. We implement various tax trajectories and options for using the revenue collected by the tax and describe their impact on household welfare and its distribution across income levels. Overall, we find that our top-down/bottom-up models affects estimates of the distribution and cost of emission reductions as well as the amount of revenue collected, but that these are mostly insensitive to the way the revenue is recycled. We find that substantial abatement opportunities through fuel switching and renewable penetration in the electricity sector allow the economy to accommodate extensive emissions reductions at relatively low cost. While welfare impacts are largely determined by the choice of revenue recycling scheme, all tax levels and schemes provide net benefits when accounting for the avoided global climate change benefits of emission reductions. Recycling revenue through capital income tax rebates is more efficient than labor income tax rebates or uniform transfers to households. While capital tax rebates substantially reduce the overall costs of emission abatement, they profit high income households the most and are regressive. We more generally identify a clear trade-off between equity and efficiency across the various recycling options. However, we show through a set of hybrid recycling schemes that it is possible to limit inequalities in impacts, particularly those on the lowest income households, at relatively little incremental cost.},
doi = {10.1142/S2010007818400158},
journal = {Climate Change Economics},
number = 01,
volume = 09,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {2}
}

Works referenced in this record:

Natural Gas From Shale Bursts Onto the Scene
journal, June 2010