Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison
Abstract
Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparison between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between - 12% and + 15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.
- Authors:
-
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.
- Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1405199
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1422312
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-122866
Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830; SC0005171
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Volume: 12 Journal Issue: 11; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
- Publisher:
- IOP Publishing
- Country of Publication:
- United Kingdom
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; integrated assessment modeling; climate change; agriculture impacts
Citation Formats
Calvin, Kate, and Fisher-Vanden, Karen. Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison. United Kingdom: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa843c.
Calvin, Kate, & Fisher-Vanden, Karen. Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison. United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa843c
Calvin, Kate, and Fisher-Vanden, Karen. Fri .
"Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison". United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa843c.
@article{osti_1405199,
title = {Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison},
author = {Calvin, Kate and Fisher-Vanden, Karen},
abstractNote = {Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparison between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between - 12% and + 15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa843c},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 11,
volume = 12,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {Fri Oct 27 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Fri Oct 27 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}
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https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa843c
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Works referenced in this record:
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Works referencing / citing this record:
Synthesis and Review: an inter-method comparison of climate change impacts on agriculture
journal, June 2018
- Ciscar, Juan-Carlos; Fisher-Vanden, Karen; Lobell, David B.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 7
Toward sustainable climate change adaptation
journal, January 2020
- Yang, Yi; Liu, Beibei; Wang, Peng
- Journal of Industrial Ecology, Vol. 24, Issue 2
GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems
journal, January 2019
- Calvin, Katherine; Patel, Pralit; Clarke, Leon
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 2