Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity
Abstract
Global climate model (GCM) estimates of the equilibrium global mean surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, measured by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), range from 2.0° to 4.6°C. Clouds are among the leading causes of this uncertainty. Here, in this paper, we show that the ECS can be up to 1.3°C higher in simulations where mixed-phase clouds consisting of ice crystals and supercooled liquid droplets are constrained by global satellite observations. The higher ECS estimates are directly linked to a weakened cloud-phase feedback arising from a decreased cloud glaciation rate in a warmer climate. Finally, we point out the need for realistic representations of the supercooled liquid fraction in mixed-phase clouds in GCMs, given the sensitivity of the ECS to the cloud-phase feedback.
- Authors:
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1355851
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1409950
- Report Number(s):
- LLNL-JRNL-735511
Journal ID: ISSN 0036-8075; 352/6282/224
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0012580; AC52-07NA27344
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Science
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Science Journal Volume: 352 Journal Issue: 6282; Journal ID: ISSN 0036-8075
- Publisher:
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 58 GEOSCIENCES
Citation Formats
Tan, I., Storelvmo, T., and Zelinka, M. D. Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity. United States: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.1126/science.aad5300.
Tan, I., Storelvmo, T., & Zelinka, M. D. Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity. United States. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad5300
Tan, I., Storelvmo, T., and Zelinka, M. D. Thu .
"Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity". United States. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad5300.
@article{osti_1355851,
title = {Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity},
author = {Tan, I. and Storelvmo, T. and Zelinka, M. D.},
abstractNote = {Global climate model (GCM) estimates of the equilibrium global mean surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, measured by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), range from 2.0° to 4.6°C. Clouds are among the leading causes of this uncertainty. Here, in this paper, we show that the ECS can be up to 1.3°C higher in simulations where mixed-phase clouds consisting of ice crystals and supercooled liquid droplets are constrained by global satellite observations. The higher ECS estimates are directly linked to a weakened cloud-phase feedback arising from a decreased cloud glaciation rate in a warmer climate. Finally, we point out the need for realistic representations of the supercooled liquid fraction in mixed-phase clouds in GCMs, given the sensitivity of the ECS to the cloud-phase feedback.},
doi = {10.1126/science.aad5300},
journal = {Science},
number = 6282,
volume = 352,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Apr 07 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Thu Apr 07 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}
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