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Title: Increased influence of nitrogen limitation on CO 2 emissions from future land use and land use change

Abstract

Abstract In the latest projections of future greenhouse gas emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), few Earth System Models included the effect of nitrogen limitation, a key process limiting forest regrowth. Few included forest management (wood harvest). We estimate the impacts of nitrogen limitation on the CO 2 emissions from land use and land use change (LULUC), including wood harvest, for the period 1900–2100. We use a land surface model that includes a fully coupled carbon and nitrogen cycle and accounts for forest regrowth processes following agricultural abandonment and wood harvest. Future projections are based on the four Representation Concentration Pathways used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and we account for uncertainty in future climate for each scenario based on ensembles of climate model outputs. Results show that excluding nitrogen limitation will underestimate global LULUC emissions by 34–52 PgC (20–30%) during the 20th century (range across three different historical LULUC reconstructions) and by 128–187 PgC (90–150%) during the 21st century (range across the four IPCC scenarios). The full range for estimated LULUC emissions during the 21st century including climate model uncertainty is 91 to 227 PgC (with nitrogen limitation included). The underestimation increases with time because (1) projected annualmore » wood harvest rates from forests summed over the 21st century are 380–1080% higher compared to those of the 20th century, resulting in more regrowing secondary forests; (2) nitrogen limitation reduces the CO 2 fertilization effect on net primary production of regrowing secondary forests following wood harvest and agricultural abandonment; and (3) nitrogen limitation effect is aggravated by the gradual loss of soil nitrogen from LULUC disturbance. Our study implies that (1) nitrogen limitation of CO 2 uptake is substantial and sensitive to nitrogen inputs; (2) if LULUC emissions are larger than previously estimated in studies without nitrogen limitation, then meeting the same climate mitigation target would require an equivalent additional reduction of fossil fuel emissions; (3) the effectiveness of land‐based mitigation strategies will critically depend on the interactions between nutrient limitations and secondary forests resulting from LULUC; and (4) it is important for terrestrial biosphere models to consider nitrogen constraint in estimates of the strength of future land carbon uptake.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [2]
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  1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Urbana Illinois USA
  2. Department of Geography, Cabot Institute University of Bristol Bristol UK
Publication Date:
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1402197
Grant/Contract Number:  
DOE‐DE‐SC0006706
Resource Type:
Publisher's Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Global Biogeochemical Cycles Journal Volume: 29 Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 0886-6236
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Meiyappan, Prasanth, Jain, Atul K., and House, Joanna I. Increased influence of nitrogen limitation on CO 2 emissions from future land use and land use change. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1002/2015GB005086.
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Meiyappan, Prasanth, Jain, Atul K., & House, Joanna I. Increased influence of nitrogen limitation on CO 2 emissions from future land use and land use change. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005086
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Meiyappan, Prasanth, Jain, Atul K., and House, Joanna I. Wed . "Increased influence of nitrogen limitation on CO 2 emissions from future land use and land use change". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005086.
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@article{osti_1402197,
title = {Increased influence of nitrogen limitation on CO 2 emissions from future land use and land use change},
author = {Meiyappan, Prasanth and Jain, Atul K. and House, Joanna I.},
abstractNote = {Abstract In the latest projections of future greenhouse gas emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), few Earth System Models included the effect of nitrogen limitation, a key process limiting forest regrowth. Few included forest management (wood harvest). We estimate the impacts of nitrogen limitation on the CO 2 emissions from land use and land use change (LULUC), including wood harvest, for the period 1900–2100. We use a land surface model that includes a fully coupled carbon and nitrogen cycle and accounts for forest regrowth processes following agricultural abandonment and wood harvest. Future projections are based on the four Representation Concentration Pathways used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and we account for uncertainty in future climate for each scenario based on ensembles of climate model outputs. Results show that excluding nitrogen limitation will underestimate global LULUC emissions by 34–52 PgC (20–30%) during the 20th century (range across three different historical LULUC reconstructions) and by 128–187 PgC (90–150%) during the 21st century (range across the four IPCC scenarios). The full range for estimated LULUC emissions during the 21st century including climate model uncertainty is 91 to 227 PgC (with nitrogen limitation included). The underestimation increases with time because (1) projected annual wood harvest rates from forests summed over the 21st century are 380–1080% higher compared to those of the 20th century, resulting in more regrowing secondary forests; (2) nitrogen limitation reduces the CO 2 fertilization effect on net primary production of regrowing secondary forests following wood harvest and agricultural abandonment; and (3) nitrogen limitation effect is aggravated by the gradual loss of soil nitrogen from LULUC disturbance. Our study implies that (1) nitrogen limitation of CO 2 uptake is substantial and sensitive to nitrogen inputs; (2) if LULUC emissions are larger than previously estimated in studies without nitrogen limitation, then meeting the same climate mitigation target would require an equivalent additional reduction of fossil fuel emissions; (3) the effectiveness of land‐based mitigation strategies will critically depend on the interactions between nutrient limitations and secondary forests resulting from LULUC; and (4) it is important for terrestrial biosphere models to consider nitrogen constraint in estimates of the strength of future land carbon uptake.},
doi = {10.1002/2015GB005086},
journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles},
number = 9,
volume = 29,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Sep 30 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Wed Sep 30 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}
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