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Title: Towards Improved Understanding of the Applicability of Uncertainty Forecasts in the Electric Power Industry

Journal Article · · Energies
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/en10091402 · OSTI ID:1399352
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9]
  1. INESC Technology and Science, Porto (Portugal)
  2. Weather & Energy PROGnoses (WEPROG), Assens (Denmark)
  3. German Weather Service, Offenbach (Germany)
  4. Fraunhofer Inst. for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology (IWES), Kasse (Germany)
  5. Univ. of Strathclyde, Glasgow (United Kingdom). Dept. of Electronic and Electrical Engineering
  6. KTH Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Mechanics
  7. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  8. Univ. of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC (United States). Dept. of Engineering Technology and Construction Management
  9. Mines ParisTech and PSL Research Univ., Cedex (France). . Centre for Processes, Renewable Energies and Energy Systems (PERSEE)
+ Show Author Affiliations

Around the world wind energy is starting to become a major energy provider in electricity markets, as well as participating in ancillary services markets to help maintain grid stability. The reliability of system operations and smooth integration of wind energy into electricity markets has been strongly supported by years of improvement in weather and wind power forecasting systems. Deterministic forecasts are still predominant in utility practice although truly optimal decisions and risk hedging are only possible with the adoption of uncertainty forecasts. One of the main barriers for the industrial adoption of uncertainty forecasts is the lack of understanding of its information content (e.g., its physical and statistical modeling) and standardization of uncertainty forecast products, which frequently leads to mistrust towards uncertainty forecasts and their applicability in practice. Our paper aims at improving this understanding by establishing a common terminology and reviewing the methods to determine, estimate, and communicate the uncertainty in weather and wind power forecasts. This conceptual analysis of the state of the art highlights that: (i) end-users should start to look at the forecast's properties in order to map different uncertainty representations to specific wind energy-related user requirements; (ii) a multidisciplinary team is required to foster the integration of stochastic methods in the industry sector. Furthermore, a set of recommendations for standardization and improved training of operators are provided along with examples of best practices.

Research Organization:
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Wind and Water Technologies Office (EE-4W)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
OSTI ID:
1399352
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA--5D00-70107
Journal Information:
Energies, Journal Name: Energies Journal Issue: 9 Vol. 10; ISSN 1996-1073; ISSN ENERGA
Publisher:
MDPI AGCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Statistical post‐processing of turbulence‐resolving weather forecasts for offshore wind power forecasting journal April 2020
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Powering the 21st century by wind energy—Options, facts, figures journal September 2019
Risk Constrained Trading Strategies for Stochastic Generation with a Single-Price Balancing Market journal May 2018
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Related Subjects

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION
decision-making
ensembles
forecast
quantiles
statistics
uncertainty
weather
wind energy