Towards Improved Understanding of the Applicability of Uncertainty Forecasts in the Electric Power Industry

Bessa, Ricardo; Möhrlen, Corinna; Fundel, Vanessa; Siefert, Malte; Browell, Jethro; Haglund El Gaidi, Sebastian; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Cali, Umit; Kariniotakis, George

doi:10.3390/en10091402

Title: Towards Improved Understanding of the Applicability of Uncertainty Forecasts in the Electric Power Industry

Journal Article · Thu Sep 14 04:00:00 UTC 2017 · Energies

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/en10091402 · OSTI ID:1399352

Bessa, Ricardo ^[1]; Möhrlen, Corinna ^[2]; Fundel, Vanessa ^[3]; Siefert, Malte ^[4]; Browell, Jethro ^[5]; Haglund El Gaidi, Sebastian ^[6]; Hodge, Bri-Mathias ^[7]; Cali, Umit ^[8]; Kariniotakis, George ^[9]

INESC Technology and Science, Porto (Portugal)
Weather & Energy PROGnoses (WEPROG), Assens (Denmark)
German Weather Service, Offenbach (Germany)
Fraunhofer Inst. for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology (IWES), Kasse (Germany)
Univ. of Strathclyde, Glasgow (United Kingdom). Dept. of Electronic and Electrical Engineering
KTH Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Mechanics
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Univ. of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC (United States). Dept. of Engineering Technology and Construction Management
Mines ParisTech and PSL Research Univ., Cedex (France). . Centre for Processes, Renewable Energies and Energy Systems (PERSEE)

Around the world wind energy is starting to become a major energy provider in electricity markets, as well as participating in ancillary services markets to help maintain grid stability. The reliability of system operations and smooth integration of wind energy into electricity markets has been strongly supported by years of improvement in weather and wind power forecasting systems. Deterministic forecasts are still predominant in utility practice although truly optimal decisions and risk hedging are only possible with the adoption of uncertainty forecasts. One of the main barriers for the industrial adoption of uncertainty forecasts is the lack of understanding of its information content (e.g., its physical and statistical modeling) and standardization of uncertainty forecast products, which frequently leads to mistrust towards uncertainty forecasts and their applicability in practice. Our paper aims at improving this understanding by establishing a common terminology and reviewing the methods to determine, estimate, and communicate the uncertainty in weather and wind power forecasts. This conceptual analysis of the state of the art highlights that: (i) end-users should start to look at the forecast's properties in order to map different uncertainty representations to specific wind energy-related user requirements; (ii) a multidisciplinary team is required to foster the integration of stochastic methods in the industry sector. Furthermore, a set of recommendations for standardization and improved training of operators are provided along with examples of best practices.

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Research Organization:: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Wind and Water Technologies Office (EE-4W)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 1399352

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA--5D00-70107

Journal Information:: Energies, Journal Name: Energies Journal Issue: 9 Vol. 10; ISSN 1996-1073; ISSN ENERGA

Publisher:: MDPI AGCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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