What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?
Abstract
Understanding potential impacts of climate change is complicated by spatially mismatched land representations between gridded datasets and models, and land use models with larger regions defined by geopolitical and/or biophysical criteria. Here in this study, we quantify the sensitivity of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) outputs to the delineation of Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs), which are normally based on historical (1961–1990) climate. We reconstruct GCAM's land regions using projected (2071–2100) climate, and find large differences in estimated future land use that correspond with differences in agricultural commodity prices and production volumes. Importantly, historically delineated AEZs experience spatially heterogeneous climate impacts over time, and do not necessarily provide more homogenous initial land productivity than projected AEZs. Finally, we conclude that non-climatic criteria for land use region delineation are likely preferable for modeling land use change in the context of climate change, and that uncertainty associated with land delineation needs to be quantified.
- Authors:
-
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate and Ecosystems Sciences Division
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate and Ecosystems Sciences Division; Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Berkeley Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1439208
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1396547
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Modelling and Software
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 85; Journal Issue: C; Related Information: © 2016 Elsevier Ltd; Journal ID: ISSN 1364-8152
- Publisher:
- Elsevier
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 58 GEOSCIENCES; AEZ; Agro-ecological zone; Climate change; GCAM; Integrated assessment model; Land use; Scale
Citation Formats
Di Vittorio, Alan V., Kyle, Page, and Collins, William D. What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?. United States: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.08.016.
Di Vittorio, Alan V., Kyle, Page, & Collins, William D. What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.08.016
Di Vittorio, Alan V., Kyle, Page, and Collins, William D. Sat .
"What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.08.016. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1439208.
@article{osti_1439208,
title = {What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?},
author = {Di Vittorio, Alan V. and Kyle, Page and Collins, William D.},
abstractNote = {Understanding potential impacts of climate change is complicated by spatially mismatched land representations between gridded datasets and models, and land use models with larger regions defined by geopolitical and/or biophysical criteria. Here in this study, we quantify the sensitivity of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) outputs to the delineation of Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs), which are normally based on historical (1961–1990) climate. We reconstruct GCAM's land regions using projected (2071–2100) climate, and find large differences in estimated future land use that correspond with differences in agricultural commodity prices and production volumes. Importantly, historically delineated AEZs experience spatially heterogeneous climate impacts over time, and do not necessarily provide more homogenous initial land productivity than projected AEZs. Finally, we conclude that non-climatic criteria for land use region delineation are likely preferable for modeling land use change in the context of climate change, and that uncertainty associated with land delineation needs to be quantified.},
doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.08.016},
journal = {Environmental Modelling and Software},
number = C,
volume = 85,
place = {United States},
year = {Sat Sep 03 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Sat Sep 03 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}
Web of Science
Works referenced in this record:
The geography of climate change: implications for conservation biogeography: Geography of climate change
journal, April 2010
- Ackerly, D. D.; Loarie, S. R.; Cornwell, W. K.
- Diversity and Distributions, Vol. 16, Issue 3
Adjustment of global gridded precipitation for systematic bias: GLOBAL GRIDDED PRECIPITATION
journal, May 2003
- Adam, Jennifer C.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 108, Issue D9
Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization
journal, September 2015
- Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 9
Effect of Anthropogenic Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes on Climate and Land Carbon Storage in CMIP5 Projections for the Twenty-First Century
journal, September 2013
- Brovkin, V.; Boysen, L.; Arora, V. K.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 18
Opportunities to improve impact, integration, and evaluation of land change models
journal, October 2013
- Brown, Daniel G.; Verburg, Peter H.; Pontius, Robert Gilmore
- Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Vol. 5, Issue 5
Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: initial experiments using GCAM
journal, December 2012
- Calvin, Katherine; Wise, Marshall; Clarke, Leon
- Climatic Change, Vol. 117, Issue 3
Reducing the impact of model scale on simulated, gridded switchgrass yields
journal, January 2014
- Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Miller, Norman L.
- Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 51
From land use to land cover: restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment–earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations
journal, January 2014
- Di Vittorio, A. V.; Chini, L. P.; Bond-Lamberty, B.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 11, Issue 22
Forecasting technological change in agriculture—An endogenous implementation in a global land use model
journal, January 2014
- Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Schmitz, Christoph; Lotze-Campen, Hermann
- Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 81
The climate velocity of the contiguous United States during the 20th century
journal, October 2012
- Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Abatzoglou, John; Swanson, Alan K.
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 19, Issue 1
Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080
journal, October 2005
- Fischer, Günther; Shah, Mahendra; N. Tubiello, Francesco
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 360, Issue 1463
Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for Land Use Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions
journal, December 2012
- Havlik, P.; Valin, H.; Mosnier, A.
- American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 95, Issue 2
Scenarios for the risk of hunger in the twenty-first century using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
journal, January 2015
- Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 1
BIOME3: An equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model based on ecophysiological constraints, resource availability, and competition among plant functional types
journal, December 1996
- Haxeltine, Alex; Prentice, I. Colin
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 10, Issue 4
Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas
journal, January 2005
- Hijmans, Robert J.; Cameron, Susan E.; Parra, Juan L.
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 25, Issue 15
Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands
journal, August 2011
- Hurtt, G. C.; Chini, L. P.; Frolking, S.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
Greenhouse Gas Policy Influences Climate via Direct Effects of Land-Use Change
journal, June 2013
- Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 11
Potential influence of climate-induced vegetation shifts on future land use and associated land carbon fluxes in Northern Eurasia
journal, March 2014
- Kicklighter, D. W.; Cai, Y.; Zhuang, Q.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 9, Issue 3
Long-term dynamic modeling of global population and built-up area in a spatially explicit way: HYDE 3.1
journal, March 2010
- Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Beusen, Arthur; Janssen, Peter
- The Holocene, Vol. 20, Issue 4
Meeting the radiative forcing targets of the representative concentration pathways in a world with agricultural climate impacts: KYLE ET AL.
journal, February 2014
- Kyle, Page; Müller, Christoph; Calvin, Katherine
- Earth's Future, Vol. 2, Issue 2
The global carbon budget 1959–2011
journal, January 2013
- Le Quéré, C.; Andres, R. J.; Boden, T.
- Earth System Science Data, Vol. 5, Issue 1
The velocity of climate change
journal, December 2009
- Loarie, Scott R.; Duffy, Philip B.; Hamilton, Healy
- Nature, Vol. 462, Issue 7276
An emission pathway for stabilization at 6 Wm−2 radiative forcing
journal, August 2011
- Masui, Toshihiko; Matsumoto, Kenichi; Hijioka, Yasuaki
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
Climate model based consensus on the hydrologic impacts of climate change to the Rio Lempa basin of Central America
journal, January 2009
- Maurer, E. P.; Adam, J. C.; Wood, A. W.
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 13, Issue 2
Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)
journal, July 2013
- Mearns, L. O.; Sain, S.; Leung, L. R.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 120, Issue 4
Farming the planet: 2. Geographic distribution of crop areas, yields, physiological types, and net primary production in the year 2000: GLOBAL CROP AREAS AND YIELDS IN 2000
journal, March 2008
- Monfreda, Chad; Ramankutty, Navin; Foley, Jonathan A.
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 22, Issue 1
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
journal, February 2010
- Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, Jae A.; Hibbard, Kathy A.
- Nature, Vol. 463, Issue 7282
Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling
journal, December 2013
- Müller, Christoph; Robertson, Richard D.
- Agricultural Economics, Vol. 45, Issue 1
Bias and variance in model results associated with spatial scaling of measurements for parameterization in regional assessments: SCALING INFORMATION TO CONDUCT REGIONAL MODELING ASSESSMENTS
journal, January 2006
- Ogle, Stephen M.; Breidt, F. Jay; Paustian, Keith
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 12, Issue 3
Climate Change and Hydrological Response in the Trans-State Oologah Lake Watershed–Evaluating Dynamically Downscaled NARCCAP and Statistically Downscaled CMIP3 Simulations with VIC Model
journal, June 2014
- Qiao, Lei; Hong, Yang; McPherson, Renee
- Water Resources Management, Vol. 28, Issue 10
Estimating historical changes in global land cover: Croplands from 1700 to 1992
journal, December 1999
- Ramankutty, Navin; Foley, Jonathan A.
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 13, Issue 4
Farming the planet: 1. Geographic distribution of global agricultural lands in the year 2000: GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL LANDS IN 2000
journal, January 2008
- Ramankutty, Navin; Evan, Amato T.; Monfreda, Chad
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 22, Issue 1
Using Land To Mitigate Climate Change: Hitting the Target, Recognizing the Trade-offs
journal, May 2012
- Reilly, John; Melillo, Jerry; Cai, Yongxia
- Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 46, Issue 11
RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions
journal, August 2011
- Riahi, Keywan; Rao, Shilpa; Krey, Volker
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
Regional CO 2 and latent heat surface fluxes in the Southern Great Plains: Measurements, modeling, and scaling
journal, January 2009
- Riley, W. J.; Biraud, S. C.; Torn, M. S.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 114, Issue G4
Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison
journal, December 2013
- Schmitz, Christoph; van Meijl, Hans; Kyle, Page
- Agricultural Economics, Vol. 45, Issue 1
A reassessment of global bioenergy potential in 2050
journal, February 2014
- Searle, Stephanie; Malins, Chris
- GCB Bioenergy, Vol. 7, Issue 2
Using dynamic vegetation models to simulate plant range shifts
journal, March 2014
- Snell, R. S.; Huth, A.; Nabel, J. E. M. S.
- Ecography, Vol. 37, Issue 12
Forest Management, Conservation, and Global Timber Markets
journal, February 1999
- Sohngen, Brent; Mendelsohn, Robert; Sedjo, Roger
- American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 81, Issue 1
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
journal, April 2012
- Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4
RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100
journal, July 2011
- Thomson, Allison M.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Smith, Steven J.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
The representative concentration pathways: an overview
journal, August 2011
- van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Edmonds, Jae; Kainuma, Mikiko
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C
journal, August 2011
- van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; den Elzen, Michel G. J.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture
journal, October 2013
- van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar; O’Neill, Brian C.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 122, Issue 3
Land system change and food security: towards multi-scale land system solutions
journal, October 2013
- Verburg, Peter H.; Mertz, Ole; Erb, Karl-Heinz
- Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Vol. 5, Issue 5
Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison
journal, December 2013
- von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk; Ahammad, Helal
- Agricultural Economics, Vol. 45, Issue 1
Comparing the influence of net and gross anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on the carbon cycle in the MPI-ESM
journal, January 2014
- Wilkenskjeld, S.; Kloster, S.; Pongratz, J.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 11, Issue 17
Works referencing / citing this record:
Issues with Large Area Thematic Accuracy Assessment for Mapping Cropland Extent: A Tale of Three Continents
journal, December 2017
- Yadav, Kamini; Congalton, Russell
- Remote Sensing, Vol. 10, Issue 2
GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems
journal, January 2019
- Calvin, Katherine; Patel, Pralit; Clarke, Leon
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 2
Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments
journal, January 2017
- Prestele, Reinhard; Arneth, Almut; Bondeau, Alberte
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 8, Issue 2
Modelling feedbacks between human and natural processes in the land system
journal, January 2018
- Robinson, Derek T.; Di Vittorio, Alan; Alexander, Peter
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 2
Impact of Farmland Change on Soybean Production Potential in Recent 40 Years: A Case Study in Western Jilin, China
journal, July 2018
- Pu, Luoman; Zhang, Shuwen; Li, Fei
- International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 15, Issue 7
Downscaling of national crop area statistics using drivers of cropland productivity measured at fine resolutions
journal, October 2018
- Song, Jingyu; Delgado, Michael S.; Preckel, Paul V.
- PLOS ONE, Vol. 13, Issue 10
Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments
text, January 2017
- Prestele, Reinhard; Arneth, Almut; Bondeau, Alberte
- Karlsruhe