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Title: A global view of shifting cultivation: Recent, current, and future extent

Journal Article · · PLoS ONE
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [3];  [2];  [4];  [5];  [5];  [5];  [5];  [5]
  1. Univ. of Bern (Switzerland). Inst. of Geography; Univ. of Bern (Switzerland). Centre for Development and Environment
  2. Univ. of Copenhagen (Denmark). Dept. of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management
  3. Univ. of New Hampshire, Durham, NH (United States). Inst. for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space
  4. Univ. of Bern (Switzerland). Centre for Development and Environment
  5. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Dept. of Geographical Sciences

Mosaic landscapes under shifting cultivation, with their dynamic mix of managed and natural land covers, often fall through the cracks in remote sensing-based land cover and land use classifications, as these are unable to adequately capture such landscapes' dynamic nature and complex spectral and spatial signatures. But information about such landscapes is urgently needed to improve the outcomes of global earth system modelling and large-scale carbon and greenhouse gas accounting. This study combines existing global Landsat-based deforestation data covering the years 2000 to 2014 with very high-resolution satellite imagery to visually detect the specific spatio-temporal pattern of shifting cultivation at a one-degree cell resolution worldwide. The accuracy levels of our classification were high with an overall accuracy above 87%. We estimate the current global extent of shifting cultivation and compare it to other current global mapping endeavors as well as results of literature searches. Based on an expert survey, we make a first attempt at estimating past trends as well as possible future trends in the global distribution of shifting cultivation until the end of the 21st century. With 62% of the investigated one-degree cells in the humid and sub-humid tropics currently showing signs of shifting cultivation$$-$$the majority in the Americas (41%) and Africa (37%)$$-$$this form of cultivation remains widespread, and it would be wrong to speak of its general global demise in the last decades. We estimate that shifting cultivation landscapes currently cover roughly 280 million hectares worldwide, including both cultivated fields and fallows. While only an approximation, this estimate is clearly smaller than the areas mentioned in the literature which range up to 1,000 million hectares. Based on our expert survey and historical trends we estimate a possible strong decrease in shifting cultivation over the next decades, raising issues of livelihood security and resilience among people currently depending on shifting cultivation.

Research Organization:
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE; Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF); Institute of Geography and the Centre for Development and Environment (CDE)
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0012972
OSTI ID:
1380064
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1425663
Journal Information:
PLoS ONE, Vol. 12, Issue 9; ISSN 1932-6203
Publisher:
Public Library of ScienceCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 145 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Socio-Economic Perspectives on Shifting Cultivation Landscapes in Northern Laos text January 2013
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Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization journal January 2016
Shifting cultivation in the mountains of South and Southeast Asia: regional patterns and factors influencing the change journal January 2003
Land-Use and Land-Cover Change and Farmer Vulnerability in Xishuangbanna Prefecture in Southwestern China journal July 2005
Shifting maize cultivation and secondary vegetation in the Southern Yucatán: successional forest impacts of temporal intensification journal May 2010
Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands journal August 2011
Spatio-temporal assessment of soil erosion risk in different agricultural zones of the Inle Lake region, southern Shan State, Myanmar journal September 2015
Finding Homogeneity in Heterogeneity—A New Approach to Quantifying Landscape Mosaics Developed for the Lao PDR journal May 2009
Policies, Political-Economy, and Swidden in Southeast Asia journal May 2009
Dynamics of Shifting Cultivation Landscapes in Northern Lao PDR Between 2000 and 2009 Based on an Analysis of MODIS Time Series and Landsat Images journal December 2012
Socio-Economic Perspectives on Shifting Cultivation Landscapes in Northern Laos journal January 2013
Shifting cultivation stability and change: Contrasting pathways of land use and livelihood change in Laos journal January 2014
The impacts of shifting cultivation on secondary forests dynamics in tropics: A synthesis of the key findings and spatio temporal distribution of research journal January 2016
Challenges for land system science journal October 2012
Measuring the planet to fill terrestrial data gaps journal December 2009
Used planet: A global history journal April 2013
Change detection techniques journal June 2004
GLC2000: a new approach to global land cover mapping from Earth observation data journal May 2005
Revealing Regional Deforestation Dynamics in North-Eastern Madagascar—Insights from Multi-Temporal Land Cover Change Analysis journal May 2015

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Fire risk assessment along the climate, vegetation type variability over the part of Asian region: a geospatial approach journal September 2018
Forest understories controlled the soil organic carbon stock during the fallow period in African tropical forest: a 13C analysis journal July 2019
Role of forest regrowth in global carbon sink dynamics journal February 2019
Effects of protected area establishment and cash crop price dynamics on land use transitions 1990–2017 in north-eastern Madagascar journal January 2019
Governing intensification: the influence of state institutions on smallholder farming strategies in Calakmul, Mexico journal July 2019
Forest cover dynamics in the Selva Maya of Central and Southern Quintana Roo, Mexico: deforestation or degradation? journal January 2020
A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios posted_content April 2018
Rethinking Landscape Conservation: Linking Globalized Agriculture to Changes to Indigenous Community-Managed Landscapes journal January 2019
Patch-Based Assessments of Shifting Cultivation Detected by Landsat Time Series Images in Myanmar journal September 2018
Gross and net land cover changes in the main plant functional types derived from the annual ESA CCI land cover maps (1992–2015) journal January 2018
Representing anthropogenic gross land use change, wood harvest, and forest age dynamics in a global vegetation model ORCHIDEE-MICT v8.4.2 journal January 2018
A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios posted_content June 2018
Forest cover dynamics in the Selva Maya of Central and Southern Quintana Roo, Mexico: deforestation or degradation? text January 2020
Effects of protected area establishment and cash crop price dynamics on land use transitions 1990–2017 in north-eastern Madagascar text January 2019
A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios text January 2018
Forest cover dynamics in the Selva Maya of Central and Southern Quintana Roo, Mexico: deforestation or degradation? text January 2020
A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios journal January 2018
Forest understories controlled the soil organic carbon stock during the fallow period in African tropical forest: a 13C analysis journal July 2019
A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios posted_content April 2018
Patch-Based Assessments of Shifting Cultivation Detected by Landsat Time Series Images in Myanmar journal September 2018
Gross and net land cover changes in the main plant functional types derived from the annual ESA CCI land cover maps (1992–2015) journal January 2018