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Title: The Changing Character of Twenty-First-Century Precipitation over the Western United States in the Variable-Resolution CESM

Abstract

Abstract The changing characters of precipitation frequency and intensity have been comprehensively investigated from the recent historical period to the end of the twenty-first century over the western United States. Variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) ensemble simulations are applied with a fine grid resolution of ~0.25° over the study area. Simulations are forced with prescribed sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, and greenhouse gas concentrations from the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. VR-CESM is shown to be effective at accurately capturing the spatial patterns of the historical precipitation climatology. The results of VR-CESM output provide significantly regional details with crucial enhancement of precipitation representations over complex terrain. In the Intermountain West and U.S. Southwest, a statistically significant increase in mean precipitation and rainy days through midcentury is observed, although this trend is tempered by the end of the century in response to a decrease in relative humidity. Over the Pacific Northwest, extreme precipitation events are observed to increase significantly as a result of increased cool season integrated vapor transport associated with a moistening of the cool seasons and drying through the warm seasons. In particular, extreme precipitation in this region appears to increase more rapidly than would bemore » predicted by the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. No clear climate signal emerges in mean precipitation or extreme events in the majority of California, where the precipitation climatology is attributed to large interannual variabilities that are tied closely to ENSO patterns.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1]
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, Davis, California
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Oakland, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1376266
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1537022
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231; SC0016605
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Journal of Climate
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Journal of Climate Journal Volume: 30 Journal Issue: 18; Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Citation Formats

Huang, Xingying, and Ullrich, Paul A. The Changing Character of Twenty-First-Century Precipitation over the Western United States in the Variable-Resolution CESM. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0673.1.
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Huang, Xingying, & Ullrich, Paul A. The Changing Character of Twenty-First-Century Precipitation over the Western United States in the Variable-Resolution CESM. United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0673.1
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Huang, Xingying, and Ullrich, Paul A. Wed . "The Changing Character of Twenty-First-Century Precipitation over the Western United States in the Variable-Resolution CESM". United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0673.1.
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@article{osti_1376266,
title = {The Changing Character of Twenty-First-Century Precipitation over the Western United States in the Variable-Resolution CESM},
author = {Huang, Xingying and Ullrich, Paul A.},
abstractNote = {Abstract The changing characters of precipitation frequency and intensity have been comprehensively investigated from the recent historical period to the end of the twenty-first century over the western United States. Variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) ensemble simulations are applied with a fine grid resolution of ~0.25° over the study area. Simulations are forced with prescribed sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, and greenhouse gas concentrations from the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. VR-CESM is shown to be effective at accurately capturing the spatial patterns of the historical precipitation climatology. The results of VR-CESM output provide significantly regional details with crucial enhancement of precipitation representations over complex terrain. In the Intermountain West and U.S. Southwest, a statistically significant increase in mean precipitation and rainy days through midcentury is observed, although this trend is tempered by the end of the century in response to a decrease in relative humidity. Over the Pacific Northwest, extreme precipitation events are observed to increase significantly as a result of increased cool season integrated vapor transport associated with a moistening of the cool seasons and drying through the warm seasons. In particular, extreme precipitation in this region appears to increase more rapidly than would be predicted by the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. No clear climate signal emerges in mean precipitation or extreme events in the majority of California, where the precipitation climatology is attributed to large interannual variabilities that are tied closely to ENSO patterns.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0673.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = 18,
volume = 30,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Aug 23 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Wed Aug 23 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}
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Journal Article:
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Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0673.1
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Cited by: 22 works
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Works referencing / citing this record:

Regionally refined test bed in E3SM atmosphere model version 1 (EAMv1) and applications for high-resolution modeling
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  • Tang, Qi; Klein, Stephen A.; Xie, Shaocheng
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Regionally refined test bed in E3SM atmosphere model version 1 (EAMv1) and applications for high-resolution modeling
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  • Tang, Qi; Klein, Stephen A.; Xie, Shaocheng
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Maximizing ENSO as a source of western US hydroclimate predictability
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  • Patricola, Christina M.; O’Brien, John P.; Risser, Mark D.
  • Climate Dynamics, Vol. 54, Issue 1-2
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-05004-8

Future projections of wind patterns in California with the variable-resolution CESM: a clustering analysis approach
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Analysis and Projection of Flood Hazards over China
journal, May 2019

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  • Water, Vol. 11, Issue 5
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