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Title: Vulnerability and cosusceptibility determine the size of network cascades

In a network, a local disturbance can propagate and eventually cause a substantial part of the system to fail in cascade events that are easy to conceptualize but extraordinarily difficult to predict. Furthermore, we develop a statistical framework that can predict cascade size distributions by incorporating two ingredients only: the vulnerability of individual components and the cosusceptibility of groups of components (i.e., their tendency to fail together). Using cascades in power grids as a representative example, we show that correlations between component failures define structured and often surprisingly large groups of cosusceptible components. Aside from their implications for blackout studies, these results provide insights and a new modeling framework for understanding cascades in financial systems, food webs, and complex networks in general.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [1] ;  [1]
  1. Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States)
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
AR0000702
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Physical Review Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 118; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 0031-9007
Publisher:
American Physical Society (APS)
Research Org:
Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy (ARPA-E)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING
OSTI Identifier:
1369629
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1341322

Yang, Yang, Nishikawa, Takashi, and Motter, Adilson E. Vulnerability and cosusceptibility determine the size of network cascades. United States: N. p., Web. doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.048301.
Yang, Yang, Nishikawa, Takashi, & Motter, Adilson E. Vulnerability and cosusceptibility determine the size of network cascades. United States. doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.048301.
Yang, Yang, Nishikawa, Takashi, and Motter, Adilson E. 2017. "Vulnerability and cosusceptibility determine the size of network cascades". United States. doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.048301. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1369629.
@article{osti_1369629,
title = {Vulnerability and cosusceptibility determine the size of network cascades},
author = {Yang, Yang and Nishikawa, Takashi and Motter, Adilson E.},
abstractNote = {In a network, a local disturbance can propagate and eventually cause a substantial part of the system to fail in cascade events that are easy to conceptualize but extraordinarily difficult to predict. Furthermore, we develop a statistical framework that can predict cascade size distributions by incorporating two ingredients only: the vulnerability of individual components and the cosusceptibility of groups of components (i.e., their tendency to fail together). Using cascades in power grids as a representative example, we show that correlations between component failures define structured and often surprisingly large groups of cosusceptible components. Aside from their implications for blackout studies, these results provide insights and a new modeling framework for understanding cascades in financial systems, food webs, and complex networks in general.},
doi = {10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.048301},
journal = {Physical Review Letters},
number = 4,
volume = 118,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {1}
}