Vulnerability and cosusceptibility determine the size of network cascades
Abstract
In a network, a local disturbance can propagate and eventually cause a substantial part of the system to fail in cascade events that are easy to conceptualize but extraordinarily difficult to predict. Furthermore, we develop a statistical framework that can predict cascade size distributions by incorporating two ingredients only: the vulnerability of individual components and the cosusceptibility of groups of components (i.e., their tendency to fail together). Using cascades in power grids as a representative example, we show that correlations between component failures define structured and often surprisingly large groups of cosusceptible components. Aside from their implications for blackout studies, these results provide insights and a new modeling framework for understanding cascades in financial systems, food webs, and complex networks in general.
- Authors:
-
- Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy (ARPA-E)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1369629
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1341322
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AR0000702
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Physical Review Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 118; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 0031-9007
- Publisher:
- American Physical Society (APS)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING
Citation Formats
Yang, Yang, Nishikawa, Takashi, and Motter, Adilson E. Vulnerability and cosusceptibility determine the size of network cascades. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.048301.
Yang, Yang, Nishikawa, Takashi, & Motter, Adilson E. Vulnerability and cosusceptibility determine the size of network cascades. United States. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.048301
Yang, Yang, Nishikawa, Takashi, and Motter, Adilson E. Fri .
"Vulnerability and cosusceptibility determine the size of network cascades". United States. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.048301. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1369629.
@article{osti_1369629,
title = {Vulnerability and cosusceptibility determine the size of network cascades},
author = {Yang, Yang and Nishikawa, Takashi and Motter, Adilson E.},
abstractNote = {In a network, a local disturbance can propagate and eventually cause a substantial part of the system to fail in cascade events that are easy to conceptualize but extraordinarily difficult to predict. Furthermore, we develop a statistical framework that can predict cascade size distributions by incorporating two ingredients only: the vulnerability of individual components and the cosusceptibility of groups of components (i.e., their tendency to fail together). Using cascades in power grids as a representative example, we show that correlations between component failures define structured and often surprisingly large groups of cosusceptible components. Aside from their implications for blackout studies, these results provide insights and a new modeling framework for understanding cascades in financial systems, food webs, and complex networks in general.},
doi = {10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.048301},
journal = {Physical Review Letters},
number = 4,
volume = 118,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Jan 27 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Fri Jan 27 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}
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Works referencing / citing this record:
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Dynamic behavior analysis of an internet flow interaction model under cascading failures
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Abnormal dynamics induced by congestion effect in cascading failures
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Small vulnerable sets determine large network cascades in power grids
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