Title: The impact of shale gas on the cost and feasibility of meeting climate targets—A global energy system model analysis and an exploration of uncertainties

Abstract

There exists considerable uncertainty over both shale and conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extraction and its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM (TIMES integrated assessment model), to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2 °C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energy system cost is relatively small (up to 0.4%), and the mitigation cost increases by 1%–3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a “dash for shale gas”, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expected leakage rates, are also considered; and are each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting global temperature goals. Finally, we conclude that the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globally coordinated action, butmore » could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.« less

Authors:

Few, Sheridan ^[1]; Gambhir, Ajay ^[1]; Napp, Tamaryn ^[1]; Hawkes, Adam ^[1]; Mangeon, Stephane ^[1]; Bernie, Dan ^[2]; Lowe, Jason ^[2]

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. Imperial College London, London (United Kingdom)
2. Met Office Hadley Centre, Devon (United Kingdom)

Publication Date:

Fri Jan 27 00:00:00 EST 2017

Research Org.:

Imperial College London, London (United Kingdom)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE Office of Science (SC)

OSTI Identifier:

1358443

Grant/Contract Number:  

SC0009988

Resource Type:

Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

Energies

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Volume: 10; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 1996-1073

Publisher:

MDPI AG

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS; shale gas; natural gas; supply curves; climate change mitigation; energy system analysis; energy scenarios; TIMES Integrated AssessmentModel (TIAM); fugitive methane emissions; energy economics