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Title: Will seasonally dry tropical forests be sensitive or resistant to future changes in rainfall regimes?

Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF) are located in regions with alternating wet and dry seasons, with dry seasons that last several months or more. By the end of the 21st century, climate models predict substantial changes in rainfall regimes across these regions, but little is known about how individuals, species, and communities in SDTF will cope with the hotter, drier conditions predicted by climate models. In this review, we explore different rainfall scenarios that may result in ecological drought in SDTF through the lens of two alternative hypotheses: 1) these forests will be sensitive to drought because they are already limited by water and close to climatic thresholds, or 2) they will be resistant/resilient to intra- and inter-annual changes in rainfall because they are adapted to predictable, seasonal drought. In our review of literature that spans microbial to ecosystem processes, a majority of the available studies suggests that increasing frequency and intensity of droughts in SDTF will likely alter species distributions and ecosystem processes. Though we conclude that SDTF will be sensitive to altered rainfall regimes, many gaps in the literature remain. Future research should focus on geographically comparative studies and well-replicated drought experiments that can provide empirical evidence tomore » improve simulation models used to forecast SDTF responses to future climate change at coarser spatial and temporal scales.« less
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [1] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [5] ;  [6] ;  [1] ;  [7] ;  [8] ;  [1] ;  [7] ;  [1]
  1. Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States)
  2. Unidad de Recursos Naturales, Yucatan (Mexico)
  3. Univ. of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez (Puerto Rico)
  4. Princeton Univ., NJ (United States); Univ. of Notre Dame, IN (United States)
  5. Univ. ICESI, Cali (Columbia)
  6. Alexander von Humboldt Inst., Bagota (Colombia)
  7. Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)
  8. Clemson Univ., SC (United States)
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 12; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
IOP Publishing
Research Org:
Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
Country of Publication:
United States
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; climate change; precipitation variability; functional traits; drought; tree phenology; belowground processes
OSTI Identifier:
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1425773