Title: Use of North American and European air quality networks to evaluate global chemistry–climate modeling of surface ozone

Abstract

Here we test the current generation of global chemistry–climate models in their ability to simulate observed, present-day surface ozone. Models are evaluated against hourly surface ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1° × 1° grid cells, allowing commensurate model–measurement comparison. Models are generally biased high during all hours of the day and in all regions. Most models simulate the shape of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles well, correctly matching the timing of hourly (~ 15:00 local time (LT)) and monthly (mid-June) peak surface ozone abundance. The amplitude of these cycles is less successfully matched. The observed summertime diurnal range (~ 25 ppb) is underestimated in all regions by about 7 ppb, and the observed seasonal range (~ 21 ppb) is underestimated by about 5 ppb except in the most polluted regions, where it is overestimated by about 5 ppb. The models generally match the pattern of the observed summertime ozone enhancement, but they overestimate its magnitude in most regions. Most models capture the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes, correctly showing that about 80 % of individual extreme events occur in large-scale, multi-day episodes of more than 100 grid cells. The modelsmore » also match the observed linear relationship between episode size and a measure of episode intensity, which shows increases in ozone abundance by up to 6 ppb for larger-sized episodes. Lastly, we conclude that the skill of the models evaluated here provides confidence in their projections of future surface ozone.« less

Authors:

Schnell, J. L.; Prather, M. J.; Josse, B.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L. W.; Cameron-Smith, P. ;

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Cameron-Smith, P."
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-8802-8627"

Bergmann, D.; Zeng, G.; Plummer, D. A.; Sudo, K.; Nagashima, T.; Shindell, D. T.; Faluvegi, G.; Strode, S. A.

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Strode, S. A."
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-8103-1663"

Publication Date:

Fri Sep 25 00:00:00 EDT 2015

Research Org.:

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); National Science Foundation (NSF)

OSTI Identifier:

1227576

Alternate Identifier(s):

OSTI ID: 1341966

Report Number(s):

LLNL-JRNL-667324
Journal ID: ISSN 1680-7324

Grant/Contract Number:  

SC0007021; AC52-07NA27344; AC02-05CH11231; NNX09AJ47G; NNX13AL12G; NNX15AE35G

Resource Type:

Published Article

Journal Name:

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online)

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Name: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online) Journal Volume: 15 Journal Issue: 18; Journal ID: ISSN 1680-7324

Publisher:

Copernicus Publications, EGU

Country of Publication:

Germany

Language:

English

Subject:

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES