A retrospective analysis of compact fluorescent lamp experience curves and their correlations to deployment programs
Abstract
Experience curves are useful for understanding technology development and can aid in the design and analysis of market transformation programs. Here, we employ a novel approach to create experience curves, to examine both global and North American compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) data for the years 1990–2007. We move away from the prevailing method of fitting a single, constant, exponential curve to data and instead search for break points where changes in the learning rate may have occurred. Our analysis suggests a learning rate of approximately 21% for the period of 1990–1997, and 51% and 79% in global and North American datasets, respectively, after 1998. We use price data for this analysis; therefore our learning rates encompass developments beyond typical “learning by doing”, including supply chain impacts such as market competition. We examine correlations between North American learning rates and the initiation of new programs, abrupt technological advances, and economic and political events, and find an increased learning rate associated with design advancements and federal standards programs. Our findings support the use of segmented experience curves for retrospective and prospective technology analysis, and may imply that investments in technology programs have contributed to an increase of the CFL learning rate.
- Authors:
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE); USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1326247
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1378350
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Energy Policy
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Energy Policy Journal Volume: 98 Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0301-4215
- Publisher:
- Elsevier
- Country of Publication:
- United Kingdom
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; Experience curve; Learning curve; CFL
Citation Formats
Smith, Sarah Josephine, Wei, Max, and Sohn, Michael D. A retrospective analysis of compact fluorescent lamp experience curves and their correlations to deployment programs. United Kingdom: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2016.09.023.
Smith, Sarah Josephine, Wei, Max, & Sohn, Michael D. A retrospective analysis of compact fluorescent lamp experience curves and their correlations to deployment programs. United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.09.023
Smith, Sarah Josephine, Wei, Max, and Sohn, Michael D. Tue .
"A retrospective analysis of compact fluorescent lamp experience curves and their correlations to deployment programs". United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.09.023.
@article{osti_1326247,
title = {A retrospective analysis of compact fluorescent lamp experience curves and their correlations to deployment programs},
author = {Smith, Sarah Josephine and Wei, Max and Sohn, Michael D.},
abstractNote = {Experience curves are useful for understanding technology development and can aid in the design and analysis of market transformation programs. Here, we employ a novel approach to create experience curves, to examine both global and North American compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) data for the years 1990–2007. We move away from the prevailing method of fitting a single, constant, exponential curve to data and instead search for break points where changes in the learning rate may have occurred. Our analysis suggests a learning rate of approximately 21% for the period of 1990–1997, and 51% and 79% in global and North American datasets, respectively, after 1998. We use price data for this analysis; therefore our learning rates encompass developments beyond typical “learning by doing”, including supply chain impacts such as market competition. We examine correlations between North American learning rates and the initiation of new programs, abrupt technological advances, and economic and political events, and find an increased learning rate associated with design advancements and federal standards programs. Our findings support the use of segmented experience curves for retrospective and prospective technology analysis, and may imply that investments in technology programs have contributed to an increase of the CFL learning rate.},
doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2016.09.023},
journal = {Energy Policy},
number = C,
volume = 98,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {Tue Nov 01 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Tue Nov 01 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.09.023
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