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Title: Global Carbon Budget 2015

Journal Article · · Earth System Science Data (Online)
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  1. Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)
  2. CICERO, Oslo (Norway)
  3. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra (Australia)
  4. Univ. of Exeter (United Kingdom)
  5. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  6. Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States)
  7. Univ. of Bristol (United Kingdom)
  8. Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States)
  9. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States)
  10. Karlsruhe Inst. of Technology (KIT) (Germany)
  11. Univ. of Miami, FL (United States); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab., Boulder, CO (United States)
  12. CEA-CNRS-UVSQ (France)
  13. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
  14. Aix-Marseille Univ., and CNRS/IN2P3, Marseille (France)
  15. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Pacific Marine Environmental Lab (PMEL), Seattle, WA (United States)
  16. InnovOcean site, Ostend (Belgium)
  17. Alfred Wegener Inst. for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhave (Germany)
  18. Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
  19. Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States)
  20. Inst. of Applied Energy (IAE), Tokyo (Japan)
  21. Plymouth Marine Lab. (United Kingdom)
  22. Hague/ Bilthoven and Utrecht Univ. (Netherlands)
  23. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  24. Univ. of Zurich (Switzerland)
  25. Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
  26. Sorbonne Univ., Paris (France)
  27. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Tasmania (Australia)
  28. Univ. of Miami, FL (United States)
  29. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
  30. Japan Agency for Marine-Eart Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka (Japan)
  31. National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Ibaraki (Japan)
  32. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
  33. Univ. of Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
  34. Fisheries Research Agency, Yokohama (Japan)
  35. Marine Research Inst. (CSIC), Pontevedra (Spain)
  36. Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States)
  37. Leibniz Inst. for Baltic Sea Research Warnemunde, Rostock (Germany)
  38. Max Planck Society, Jena (Germany). Max Planck Inst. for Biogeochemistry
  39. Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo (Japan)
  40. National Centre for Meteorological Research (CNRM)
  41. GEOMAR Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research Kiel (Germany)
  42. Univ. of Bern (Switzerland); Imperial College, Berkshire (United Kingdom)
  43. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Pacific Marine Environmental Lab (PMEL), Seattle, WA (United States); Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
  44. Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
  45. CSIRO Oceans and Atmospher and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Co-operative Research Center, Hobart (Australia)
  46. Wageningen Univ. (Netherlands); ICOS-Carbon Portal, Wageningen (Netherlands)
  47. VU Univ. Amsterdam (Netherlands)
  48. Royal Netherlands Inst. for Sea Research, Texel (Netherlands)
  49. Univ. of New Hampshire, Durham, NH (United States)
  50. Met Office Hadley Center, Exeter (United Kingdom)
+ Show Author Affiliations

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We also discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. Moreover, the mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr-1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr-1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr-1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of -0.6 [range of -1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. Finally, this living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).

Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725
OSTI ID:
1265897
Journal Information:
Earth System Science Data (Online), Journal Name: Earth System Science Data (Online) Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 7; ISSN 1866-3516
Publisher:
CopernicusCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Simulating estimation of California fossil fuel and biosphere carbon dioxide exchanges combining in situ tower and satellite column observations journal March 2017
Assimilation of repeated woody biomass observations constrains decadal ecosystem carbon cycle uncertainty in aggrading forests: CONSTRAINING BIOMASS AND SOIL C CYCLES journal March 2017
Large Differences in Global and Regional Total Soil Carbon Stock Estimates Based on SoilGrids, HWSD, and NCSCD: Intercomparison and Evaluation Based on Field Data From USA, England, Wales, and France: Differences in total SOC stock estimates journal January 2018
The eMLR(C*) Method to Determine Decadal Changes in the Global Ocean Storage of Anthropogenic CO 2 journal April 2018
Global bounds on nitrogen gas emissions from humid tropical forests journal March 2017
Long-Term Stimulatory Warming Effect on Soil Heterotrophic Respiration in a Cool-Temperate Broad-Leaved Deciduous Forest in Northern Japan journal April 2018
Monitoring individual tree-based change with airborne lidar journal April 2018
Forests in the northern Sierra Nevada of California, USA, store large amounts of carbon in different patterns journal June 2019
Technological assessment and modeling of energy‐related CO 2 emissions for the G8 countries by using hybrid IWO algorithm based on SVM journal April 2020
A comprehensive review of sectorial contribution towards greenhouse gas emissions and progress in carbon capture and storage in Pakistan journal May 2019
Carbon capture induced changes in Deccan basalt: a mass‐balance approach journal September 2019
Long-term alkalinity trends in the Baltic Sea and their implications for CO 2 -induced acidification: Baltic Sea Alkalinity Trends journal July 2016
Paris INDCs book January 2017
Impacts of Nitrogen Deposition on Forest Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity book February 2019
Influence of Land-Use Intensification on Vegetation C-Stocks in an Alpine Valley from 1865 to 2003 journal March 2017
Whose carbon is burnable? Equity considerations in the allocation of a “right to extract” journal May 2018
The Role and Need for Space-Based Forest Biomass-Related Measurements in Environmental Management and Policy journal February 2019
Development of a high-resolution spatial inventory of greenhouse gas emissions for Poland from stationary and mobile sources journal February 2018
Catalytic activity of hydrotalcite-derived catalysts in the dry reforming of methane: on the effect of Ce promotion and feed gas composition journal March 2017
Agroforestry: a sustainable environmental practice for carbon sequestration under the climate change scenarios—a review journal March 2017
Global challenges and adaptations in management practices to preserve soil carbon pool with changing climate journal July 2018
Sustainable intensification of agriculture for human prosperity and global sustainability journal July 2016
Is the future of agriculture perennial? Imperatives and opportunities to reinvent agriculture by shifting from annual monocultures to perennial polycultures journal January 2018
Attributing the Carbon Cycle Impacts of CMIP5 Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) journal May 2018
Modeling the Recent Changes in the Arctic Ocean CO 2 Sink (2006–2013) journal March 2019
Pacific Anthropogenic Carbon Between 1991 and 2017 journal May 2019
Plant Regrowth as a Driver of Recent Enhancement of Terrestrial CO 2 Uptake journal May 2018
Understanding End‐of‐Century Snowpack Changes Over California's Sierra Nevada journal January 2019
Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C journal June 2016
Reaching peak emissions journal December 2015
Uncertainties around reductions in China’s coal use and CO2 emissions journal March 2016
The key role of forests in meeting climate targets requires science for credible mitigation journal February 2017
Weakening temperature control on the interannual variations of spring carbon uptake across northern lands journal April 2017
Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake journal November 2016
Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems journal March 2017
Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties journal June 2017
Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years journal March 2016
High atmosphere–ocean exchange of semivolatile aromatic hydrocarbons journal May 2016
Historical carbon dioxide emissions caused by land-use changes are possibly larger than assumed journal January 2017
Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C journal September 2017
21st Century drought-related fires counteract the decline of Amazon deforestation carbon emissions journal February 2018
Land use change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation drive decadal carbon balance shifts in Southeast Asia journal March 2018
Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C journal March 2018
Cumulative carbon emissions budgets consistent with 1.5 °C global warming journal April 2018
Reconciling global-model estimates and country reporting of anthropogenic forest CO2 sinks journal September 2018
Decadal variability in twentieth-century ocean acidification in the California Current Ecosystem journal December 2019
China CO2 emission accounts 2016–2017 journal February 2020
Atmospheric deposition, CO2, and change in the land carbon sink journal August 2017
Stationary Rossby waves dominate subduction of anthropogenic carbon in the Southern Ocean journal December 2017
Important evidence of constant low CO2 windows and impacts on the non-closure of the greenhouse effect journal March 2019
Symbiotic N fixation is sufficient to support net aboveground biomass accumulation in a humid tropical forest journal May 2019
Surface ocean carbon dioxide variability in South Pacific boundary currents and Subantarctic waters journal May 2019
China CO2 emission accounts 1997–2015 journal January 2018
An emissions-socioeconomic inventory of Chinese cities journal February 2019
Precipitation and carbon-water coupling jointly control the interannual variability of global land gross primary production journal December 2016
Aerosol climate change effects on land ecosystem services journal January 2017
Holocene peatland and ice-core data constraints on the timing and magnitude of CO 2 emissions from past land use journal January 2017
Ecosystem management and land conservation can substantially contribute to California’s climate mitigation goals journal November 2017
What if negative emission technologies fail at scale? Implications of the Paris Agreement for big emitting nations journal August 2017
Towards accepted procedures for calculating international consumption-based carbon accounts journal February 2020
The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service Ocean State Report journal September 2016
Thailand Energy System Transition to Keep Warming Below 1.5 Degrees journal September 2018
Research priorities for negative emissions journal November 2016
Using the Suess effect on the stable carbon isotope to distinguish the future from the past in radiocarbon journal December 2016
Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver journal August 2016
Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions journal September 2016
Reducing uncertainty in projections of terrestrial carbon uptake journal April 2017
Photosynthetic productivity and its efficiencies in ISIMIP2a biome models: benchmarking for impact assessment studies journal July 2017
Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States journal March 2018
Constraints on biomass energy deployment in mitigation pathways: the case of water scarcity journal April 2018
Influence of high-latitude warming and land-use changes in the early 20th century northern Eurasian CO 2 sink journal June 2018
Selection biases and spillovers from collective conservation incentives in the Peruvian Amazon journal April 2019
Beyond MRV: high-resolution forest carbon modeling for climate mitigation planning over Maryland, USA journal April 2019
A review of the major drivers of the terrestrial carbon uptake: model-based assessments, consensus, and uncertainties journal September 2019
Threats to a Colorado river provisioning basin under coupled future climate and societal scenarios journal September 2019
A successful prediction of the record CO 2 rise associated with the 2015/2016 El Niño journal October 2018
National mitigation potential from natural climate solutions in the tropics
  • Griscom, Bronson W.; Busch, Jonah; Cook-Patton, Susan C.
  • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 375, Issue 1794 https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0126
journal January 2020
Forest degradation impacts on carbon stocks, tree density and regeneration status in banj oak forests of Central Himalaya journal December 2019
Soil respiration in Chinese tea gardens: autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration: Autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration journal May 2018
Direct and indirect climate change effects on carbon dioxide fluxes in a thawing boreal forest-wetland landscape journal March 2017
Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to precipitation extremes: A synthesis of grassland precipitation manipulation experiments journal May 2017
Attribution of seasonal leaf area index trends in the northern latitudes with “optimally” integrated ecosystem models journal May 2017
Global‐scale impacts of nitrogen deposition on tree carbon sequestration in tropical, temperate, and boreal forests: A meta‐analysis journal September 2017
Negative emissions from stopping deforestation and forest degradation, globally journal September 2017
Constraining estimates of global soil respiration by quantifying sources of variability journal June 2018
Temporal response of soil organic carbon after grassland-related land-use change journal June 2018
Global vegetation biomass production efficiency constrained by models and observations journal September 2019
A global estimate of terrestrial net secondary production of primary consumers journal September 2019
Peak cement‐related CO 2 emissions and the changes in drivers in China journal November 2018
A roadmap for improving the representation of photosynthesis in Earth system models journal November 2016
Environmental control of carbon allocation matters for modelling forest growth journal November 2016
Mycorrhizal association as a primary control of the CO 2 fertilization effect journal June 2016
Spaceborne detection of localized carbon dioxide sources journal October 2017
Cash for carbon: A randomized trial of payments for ecosystem services to reduce deforestation journal July 2017
Electrified methane reforming: A compact approach to greener industrial hydrogen production journal May 2019
The Asymmetrical Effects of Economic Development on Consumption-based and Production-based Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1990 to 2014 journal January 2018
Assessing the INDCs’ land use, land use change, and forest emission projections journal December 2016
Questioning emissions-based approaches for the definition of REDD+ deforestation baselines in high forest cover/low deforestation countries journal October 2018
How have carbon stocks in central and southern Africa’s miombo woodlands changed over the last 50 years? A systematic map of the evidence journal July 2018
Implications of overestimated anthropogenic CO2 emissions on East Asian and global land CO2 flux inversion dataset May 2017
Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century journal December 2017
Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Variability journal January 2016
Beyond greenness: Detecting temporal changes in photosynthetic capacity with hyperspectral reflectance data journal December 2017
Increased fitness of a key appendicularian zooplankton species under warmer, acidified seawater conditions journal January 2018
Ecosystem management and land conservation can substantially contribute to California’s climate mitigation goals text January 2017
National mitigation potential from natural climate solutions in the tropics. text January 2020
Estimates of Water-Column Nutrient Concentrations and Carbonate System Parameters in the Global Ocean: A Novel Approach Based on Neural Networks journal May 2017
Assessment of Forest Above-Ground Biomass Estimation from PolInSAR in the Presence of Temporal Decorrelation journal May 2018
Simultaneous Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture and FAPAR for Improving Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes at Multiple Sites Using CCDAS journal December 2018
A Global, 0.05-Degree Product of Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence Derived from OCO-2, MODIS, and Reanalysis Data journal March 2019
Carbon Dynamics in a Human-Modified Tropical Forest: A Case Study Using Multi-Temporal LiDAR Data journal January 2020
The Moderating Effect of Innovation on the Relationship between Urbanization and CO2 Emissions: Evidence from Three Major Urban Agglomerations in China journal March 2019
Decadal trends in the seasonal-cycle amplitude of terrestrial CO 2 exchange resulting from the ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models journal May 2016
Pacific Anthropogenic Carbon Between 1991 and 2017 text January 2019
Greenhouse gas simulations with a coupled meteorological and transport model: the predictability of CO 2 journal January 2016
A modified impulse-response representation of the global near-surface air temperature and atmospheric concentration response to carbon dioxide emissions journal January 2017
A global synthesis inversion analysis of recent variability in CO 2 fluxes using GOSAT and in situ observations journal January 2018
A comparison of posterior atmospheric CO 2 adjustments obtained from in situ and GOSAT constrained flux inversions journal January 2018
Simulating CH4 and CO2 over South and East Asia using the zoomed chemistry transport model LMDz-INCA journal January 2018
Global carbon budgets estimated from atmospheric O 2 ∕N 2 and CO 2 observations in the western Pacific region over a 15-year period journal January 2019
Six years of atmospheric CO 2 observations at Mt. Fuji recorded with a battery-powered measurement system journal January 2017
Greenhouse gas measurements from a UK network of tall towers: technical description and first results journal January 2018
The potential of satellite spectro-imagery for monitoring CO2 emissions from large cities journal January 2018
Greenhouse gas measurements from a UK network of tall towers: technical description and first results posted_content October 2017
Ocean acidification in the subpolar North Atlantic: rates and mechanisms controlling pH changes journal January 2016
Re-evaluating the 1940s CO 2 plateau journal January 2016
Using present-day observations to detect when anthropogenic change forces surface ocean carbonate chemistry outside preindustrial bounds journal January 2016
Transient dynamics of terrestrial carbon storage: mathematical foundation and its applications journal January 2017
20th century changes in carbon isotopes and water-use efficiency: tree-ring-based evaluation of the CLM4.5 and LPX-Bern models journal January 2017
Reviews and syntheses: Systematic Earth observations for use in terrestrial carbon cycle data assimilation systems journal January 2017
Reviews and syntheses: An empirical spatiotemporal description of the global surface–atmosphere carbon fluxes: opportunities and data limitations journal January 2017
Net ecosystem carbon exchange of a dry temperate eucalypt forest journal January 2017
The role of soil pH on soil carbonic anhydrase activity journal January 2018
Contrasting effects of acidification and warming on dimethylsulfide concentrations during a temperate estuarine fall bloom mesocosm experiment journal January 2019
Carbon cycling in the North American coastal ocean: a synthesis journal January 2019
Using present-day observations to detect when anthropogenic change forces surface ocean carbonate chemistry outside pre-industrial bounds posted_content March 2016
The role of soil pH on soil carbonic anhydrase activity posted_content August 2017
Gross changes in forest area shape the future carbon balance of tropical forests posted_content August 2017
Experimental assessment of the sensitivity of an estuarine phytoplankton fall bloom to acidification and warming posted_content February 2018
Carbon cycling in the North American coastal ocean: A synthesis posted_content September 2018
The Southern Ocean as a constraint to reduce uncertainty in future ocean carbon sinks journal January 2016
Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments journal January 2017
Biophysics and vegetation cover change: a process-based evaluation framework for confronting land surface models with satellite observations journal January 2018
Global Carbon Budget 2018 journal January 2018
Global Carbon Budget 2017 journal January 2018
Global Carbon Budget 2019 journal January 2019
Biophysics and vegetation cover change: a process-based evaluation framework for confronting land surface models with satellite observations journal March 2018
Global fire emissions estimates during 1997–2016 journal January 2017
Improving the inter-hemispheric gradient of total column atmospheric CO 2 and CH 4 in simulations with the ECMWF semi-Lagrangian atmospheric global model journal January 2017
The compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2: description and first results journal January 2017
The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6 journal January 2018
LPJmL4 – a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land – Part 1: Model description journal January 2018
LPJmL4 – a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land – Part 2: Model evaluation journal January 2018
Representation of dissolved organic carbon in the JULES land surface model (vn4.4_JULES-DOCM) journal January 2018
Description and validation of an intermediate complexity model for ecosystem photosynthesis and evapotranspiration: ACM-GPP-ETv1 journal January 2019
Improving the LPJmL4-SPITFIRE vegetation–fire model for South America using satellite data journal January 2019
Accounting for forest age in the tile-based dynamic global vegetation model JSBACH4 (4.20p7; git feature/forests) – a land surface model for the ICON-ESM journal January 2020
Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River journal January 2018
Global Carbon Budget 2016 text January 2016
Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments text January 2017
Global Carbon Budget 2017 text January 2018
Land use change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation drive decadal carbon balance shifts in Southeast Asia text January 2018
Global wetland contribution to 2000–2012 atmospheric methane growth rate dynamics text January 2017
Global Carbon Budget 2019 text January 2019
Positive biodiversity-productivity relationship predominant in global forests text January 2016
Holocene peatland and ice-core data constraints on the timing and magnitude of CO₂ emissions from past land use text January 2017
White Arctic vs. Blue Arctic: A case study of diverging stakeholder responses to environmental change text January 2016

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