Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

Journal Article · Sat Aug 29 04:00:00 UTC 2015 · Climatic Change

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1494-z · OSTI ID:1255379

Kunkel, Kenneth E. ^[1]; Moss, Richard ^[2]; Parris, Adam ^[3]

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1. North Carolina State Univ., Asheville, NC (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Climate and Satellites-North Carolina; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Asheville, NC (United States). National Centers for Environmental Information
2. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
3. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Silver Spring,MD (United States). Climate Program Office

Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA)
• Grant/Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1255379
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA--116569; KP1703030
• Journal Information: Climatic Change, Journal Name: Climatic Change Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 135; ISSN 0165-0009
• Publisher: SpringerCopyright Statement
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English