Informativeness of wind data in linear Madden–Julian oscillation prediction
Abstract
Abstract Linear inverse models (LIMs) are used to explore predictability and information content of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Hindcast skill for outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) related to the MJO on intraseasonal timescales in the tropics has been examined for a variety of LIMs using OLR and optionally 200 and 850 hPa zonal wind information channels. The dependence of OLR hindcast skill on wind channels was evaluated by randomizing in time, averaging in space, or omitting data entirely. Results show positive prediction skill (relative to climatology) up to 3 weeks and wind information, mostly at the largest scales, adds 1–2 days of skill.
- Authors:
-
- Department of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science University of Miami FL USA
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USA
- Publication Date:
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1253036
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1253217
- Grant/Contract Number:
- DE‐SC0006806
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Atmospheric Science Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Atmospheric Science Letters Journal Volume: 17 Journal Issue: 6; Journal ID: ISSN 1530-261X
- Publisher:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Country of Publication:
- United Kingdom
- Language:
- English
Citation Formats
Allen, Theodore L., Mapes, Brian E., and Cavanaugh, Nicholas. Informativeness of wind data in linear Madden–Julian oscillation prediction. United Kingdom: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.1002/asl.666.
Allen, Theodore L., Mapes, Brian E., & Cavanaugh, Nicholas. Informativeness of wind data in linear Madden–Julian oscillation prediction. United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.666
Allen, Theodore L., Mapes, Brian E., and Cavanaugh, Nicholas. Fri .
"Informativeness of wind data in linear Madden–Julian oscillation prediction". United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.666.
@article{osti_1253036,
title = {Informativeness of wind data in linear Madden–Julian oscillation prediction},
author = {Allen, Theodore L. and Mapes, Brian E. and Cavanaugh, Nicholas},
abstractNote = {Abstract Linear inverse models (LIMs) are used to explore predictability and information content of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Hindcast skill for outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) related to the MJO on intraseasonal timescales in the tropics has been examined for a variety of LIMs using OLR and optionally 200 and 850 hPa zonal wind information channels. The dependence of OLR hindcast skill on wind channels was evaluated by randomizing in time, averaging in space, or omitting data entirely. Results show positive prediction skill (relative to climatology) up to 3 weeks and wind information, mostly at the largest scales, adds 1–2 days of skill.},
doi = {10.1002/asl.666},
journal = {Atmospheric Science Letters},
number = 6,
volume = 17,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {Fri May 13 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Fri May 13 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}
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