On the spatial decorrelation of stochastic solar resource variability at long timescales
Abstract
Understanding the spatial and temporal characteristics of solar resource variability is important because it helps inform the discussion surrounding the merits of geographic dispersion and subsequent electrical interconnection of photovoltaics as part of a portfolio of future solutions for coping with this variability. The unpredictable resource variability arising from the stochastic nature of meteorological phenomena (from the passage of clouds to the movement of weather systems) is of most concern for achieving high PV penetration because unlike the passage of seasons or the shift from day to night, the uncertainty makes planning a challenge. A suitable proxy for unpredictable solar resource variability at any given location is the series of variations in the clearness index from one time period to the next because the clearness index is largely independent of the predictable influence of solar geometry. At timescales shorter than one day, the correlation between these variations in clearness index at pairs of distinct geographic locations decreases with spatial extent and with timescale. As the aggregate variability across N decorrelated locations decreases as 1/√N, identifying the distance required to achieve this decorrelation is critical to quantifying the expected reduction in variability from geographic dispersion.
- Authors:
-
- Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
- Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1221757
- Report Number(s):
- BNL-108386-2015-JA
Journal ID: ISSN 0038-092X; YN0100000
- Grant/Contract Number:
- DGE-1144155
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Solar Energy
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 117; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0038-092X
- Publisher:
- Elsevier
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 14 SOLAR ENERGY
Citation Formats
Perez, Marc J. R., and Fthenakis, Vasilis M.. On the spatial decorrelation of stochastic solar resource variability at long timescales. United States: N. p., 2015.
Web. doi:10.1016/j.solener.2015.04.020.
Perez, Marc J. R., & Fthenakis, Vasilis M.. On the spatial decorrelation of stochastic solar resource variability at long timescales. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2015.04.020
Perez, Marc J. R., and Fthenakis, Vasilis M.. Sat .
"On the spatial decorrelation of stochastic solar resource variability at long timescales". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2015.04.020. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1221757.
@article{osti_1221757,
title = {On the spatial decorrelation of stochastic solar resource variability at long timescales},
author = {Perez, Marc J. R. and Fthenakis, Vasilis M.},
abstractNote = {Understanding the spatial and temporal characteristics of solar resource variability is important because it helps inform the discussion surrounding the merits of geographic dispersion and subsequent electrical interconnection of photovoltaics as part of a portfolio of future solutions for coping with this variability. The unpredictable resource variability arising from the stochastic nature of meteorological phenomena (from the passage of clouds to the movement of weather systems) is of most concern for achieving high PV penetration because unlike the passage of seasons or the shift from day to night, the uncertainty makes planning a challenge. A suitable proxy for unpredictable solar resource variability at any given location is the series of variations in the clearness index from one time period to the next because the clearness index is largely independent of the predictable influence of solar geometry. At timescales shorter than one day, the correlation between these variations in clearness index at pairs of distinct geographic locations decreases with spatial extent and with timescale. As the aggregate variability across N decorrelated locations decreases as 1/√N, identifying the distance required to achieve this decorrelation is critical to quantifying the expected reduction in variability from geographic dispersion.},
doi = {10.1016/j.solener.2015.04.020},
journal = {Solar Energy},
number = C,
volume = 117,
place = {United States},
year = {Sat May 16 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Sat May 16 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}
Web of Science
Works referenced in this record:
Assessment of spatial and temporal variability in the US solar resource from radiometric measurements and predictions from models using ground-based or satellite data
journal, May 2011
- Gueymard, Christian A.; Wilcox, Stephen M.
- Solar Energy, Vol. 85, Issue 5
Quantifying PV power Output Variability
journal, October 2010
- Hoff, Thomas E.; Perez, Richard
- Solar Energy, Vol. 84, Issue 10
Cloud speed impact on solar variability scaling – Application to the wavelet variability model
journal, May 2013
- Lave, Matthew; Kleissl, Jan
- Solar Energy, Vol. 91
High-frequency irradiance fluctuations and geographic smoothing
journal, August 2012
- Lave, Matthew; Kleissl, Jan; Arias-Castro, Ery
- Solar Energy, Vol. 86, Issue 8
A method of estimating the output fluctuation of many photovoltaic power generation systems dispersed in a wide area
journal, March 2009
- Murata, Akinobu; Yamaguchi, Hiroshi; Otani, Kenji
- Electrical Engineering in Japan, Vol. 166, Issue 4
The probability density and autocorrelation of short-term global and beam irradiance
journal, December 1992
- Skartveit, A.; Olseth, J. A.
- Solar Energy, Vol. 49, Issue 6
Impacts of long-timescale variability in solar resources at high PV penetrations: Quantification
conference, June 2012
- Perez, Marc J. R.; Fthenakis, Vasilis
- 2012 38th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference
Long-distance interconnection as solar resource intermittency solution: Optimizing the use of energy storage and the geographic dispersion + interconnection of solar generating facilities
conference, June 2013
- Perez, Marc J. R.; Fthenakis, Vasilis M.
- 2013 IEEE 39th Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC)
Spatial & Temporal Characteristics of Solar Radiation Variability
conference, January 2011
- Perez, Richard; Kivalov, Sergey; Hoff, Thomas
- Proceedings of the ISES Solar World Congress 2011
Parameterization of site-specific short-term irradiance variability
journal, July 2011
- Perez, Richard; Kivalov, Sergey; Schlemmer, James
- Solar Energy, Vol. 85, Issue 7
Short-term irradiance variability: Preliminary estimation of station pair correlation as a function of distance
journal, August 2012
- Perez, Richard; Kivalov, Sergey; Schlemmer, Jim
- Solar Energy, Vol. 86, Issue 8
Fluctuations in instantaneous clearness index: Analysis and statistics
journal, February 2007
- Woyte, Achim; Belmans, Ronnie; Nijs, Johan
- Solar Energy, Vol. 81, Issue 2