Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High‐Resolution Global Atmospheric Model

Journal Article · Thu Jul 08 04:00:00 UTC 2010 · Advances in Meteorology

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2010/915303 · OSTI ID:1197941

Wehner, Michael F.; Bala, G.; Duffy, Phillip; Mirin, Arthur A.; Romano, Raquel; Hong, ed., Song Y.

We present a set of high‐resolution global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations focusing on the model′s ability to represent tropical storms and their statistics. We find that the model produces storms of hurricane strength with realistic dynamical features. We also find that tropical storm statistics are reasonable, both globally and in the north Atlantic, when compared to recent observations. The sensitivity of simulated tropical storm statistics to increases in sea surface temperature (SST) is also investigated, revealing that a credible late 21st century SST increase produced increases in simulated tropical storm numbers and intensities in all ocean basins. While this paper supports previous high‐resolution model and theoretical findings that the frequency of very intense storms will increase in a warmer climate, it differs notably from previous medium and high‐resolution model studies that show a global reduction in total tropical storm frequency. However, we are quick to point out that this particular model finding remains speculative due to a lack of radiative forcing changes in our time‐slice experiments as well as a focus on the Northern hemisphere tropical storm seasons.

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• Grant/Contract Number: AC52-07NA27344
• OSTI ID: 1197941
• Journal Information: Advances in Meteorology, Journal Name: Advances in Meteorology Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 2010; ISSN 1687-9309
• Publisher: Hindawi Publishing CorporationCopyright Statement
• Country of Publication: Egypt
• Language: English