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Title: Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

Abstract

We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a largermore » sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R climate model produces a complete shutdown of deep water formation in the North Atlantic.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [3];  [3];  [2];  [1];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [6];  [5];  [7];  [2];  [5];  [4];  [8];  [2];  [9] more »;  [4];  [4];  [5];  [4];  [10];  [4];  [4];  [5];  [2];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [3];  [5];  [11];  [5];  [12];  [13] « less
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)
  2. NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)
  3. NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States); Trinnovim LLC, New York, NY (United States)
  4. NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States); Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
  5. Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)
  6. Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
  7. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
  8. Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States);
  9. Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
  10. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  11. Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States)
  12. Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); Trinnovim LLC, New York, NY (United States)
  13. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE; National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
OSTI Identifier:
1191174
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 7; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Nazarenko, L., Schmidt, G. A., Miller, R. L., Tausnev, N., Kelley, M., Ruedy, R., Russell, G. L., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bauer, S., Bleck, R., Canuto, V., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Del Genio, A. D., Faluvegi, G., Hansen, J. E., Healy, R. J., Kiang, N. Y., Koch, D., Lacis, A. A., LeGrande, A. N., Lerner, J., Lo, K. K., Menon, S., Oinas, V., Perlwitz, J., Puma, M. J., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Sato, M., Shindell, D. T., Sun, S., Tsigaridis, K., Unger, N., Voulgarakis, A., Yao, M. -S., and Zhang, Jinlun. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1002/2014MS000403.
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Nazarenko, L., Schmidt, G. A., Miller, R. L., Tausnev, N., Kelley, M., Ruedy, R., Russell, G. L., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bauer, S., Bleck, R., Canuto, V., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Del Genio, A. D., Faluvegi, G., Hansen, J. E., Healy, R. J., Kiang, N. Y., Koch, D., Lacis, A. A., LeGrande, A. N., Lerner, J., Lo, K. K., Menon, S., Oinas, V., Perlwitz, J., Puma, M. J., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Sato, M., Shindell, D. T., Sun, S., Tsigaridis, K., Unger, N., Voulgarakis, A., Yao, M. -S., & Zhang, Jinlun. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014MS000403
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Nazarenko, L., Schmidt, G. A., Miller, R. L., Tausnev, N., Kelley, M., Ruedy, R., Russell, G. L., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bauer, S., Bleck, R., Canuto, V., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Del Genio, A. D., Faluvegi, G., Hansen, J. E., Healy, R. J., Kiang, N. Y., Koch, D., Lacis, A. A., LeGrande, A. N., Lerner, J., Lo, K. K., Menon, S., Oinas, V., Perlwitz, J., Puma, M. J., Rind, D., Romanou, A., Sato, M., Shindell, D. T., Sun, S., Tsigaridis, K., Unger, N., Voulgarakis, A., Yao, M. -S., and Zhang, Jinlun. Tue . "Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014MS000403. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1191174.
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@article{osti_1191174,
title = {Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2},
author = {Nazarenko, L. and Schmidt, G. A. and Miller, R. L. and Tausnev, N. and Kelley, M. and Ruedy, R. and Russell, G. L. and Aleinov, I. and Bauer, M. and Bauer, S. and Bleck, R. and Canuto, V. and Cheng, Y. and Clune, T. L. and Del Genio, A. D. and Faluvegi, G. and Hansen, J. E. and Healy, R. J. and Kiang, N. Y. and Koch, D. and Lacis, A. A. and LeGrande, A. N. and Lerner, J. and Lo, K. K. and Menon, S. and Oinas, V. and Perlwitz, J. and Puma, M. J. and Rind, D. and Romanou, A. and Sato, M. and Shindell, D. T. and Sun, S. and Tsigaridis, K. and Unger, N. and Voulgarakis, A. and Yao, M. -S. and Zhang, Jinlun},
abstractNote = {We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R climate model produces a complete shutdown of deep water formation in the North Atlantic.},
doi = {10.1002/2014MS000403},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
number = 1,
volume = 7,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Feb 24 00:00:00 EST 2015},
month = {Tue Feb 24 00:00:00 EST 2015}
}
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    • Herrera, Manuel; Natarajan, Sukumar; Coley, David A.
    • Building Services Engineering Research and Technology, Vol. 38, Issue 5
    • DOI: 10.1177/0143624417705937

    Genetic diversity and distribution of Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under climate change scenarios in West Africa
    journal, April 2018

    Climate Change Influences of Temporal and Spatial Drought Variation in the Andean High Mountain Basin
    journal, September 2019

    • Zhiña, Dario; Montenegro, Martín; Montalván, Lisseth
    • Atmosphere, Vol. 10, Issue 9
    • DOI: 10.3390/atmos10090558

    Past, Present and Future Climate Trends Under Varied Representative Concentration Pathways for a Sub-Humid Region in Uganda
    journal, February 2019

    • Egeru, Anthony; Barasa, Bernard; Nampijja, Josephine
    • Climate, Vol. 7, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.3390/cli7030035

    Strategies for Climate-Smart Forest Management in Austria
    journal, September 2018

    • Jandl, Robert; Ledermann, Thomas; Kindermann, Georg
    • Forests, Vol. 9, Issue 10
    • DOI: 10.3390/f9100592

    Tropical cyclones in the GISS ModelE2
    journal, July 2016

    • Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Delgenio, Anthony D.
    • Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol. 68, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v68.31494

    Anthropogenic aerosol forcing under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
    journal, January 2019

    • Lund, Marianne T.; Myhre, Gunnar; Samset, Bjørn H.
    • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 22
    • DOI: 10.5194/acp-19-13827-2019

    Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins?
    journal, January 2018

    • Hart, Christopher J.; Kelly, Ryan P.; Pearson, Scott F.
    • PeerJ, Vol. 6
    • DOI: 10.7717/peerj.4519

    Change of niche in guanaco ( Lama guanicoe ): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile
    journal, January 2018

    • Castillo, Andrea G.; Alò, Dominique; González, Benito A.
    • PeerJ, Vol. 6
    • DOI: 10.7717/peerj.4907

    Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): The effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile
    posted_content, January 2018

    Range-wide variation in local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity of fitness-related traits in Fagus sylvatica and their implications under climate change
    posted_content, January 2019

    • Gárate-Escamilla, Homero; Hampe, Arndt; Vizcaíno-Palomar, Natalia
    • bioRxiv
    • DOI: 10.1101/513515

    Tropical cyclones in the GISS ModelE2
    text, January 2016

    • Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Del Genio, Anthony D.
    • Columbia University
    • DOI: 10.7916/d8-2ymh-8911
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