Navigating Epistemic Uncertainty in the Management of Flash Droughts

Gabriela, Gesualdo; Antonia, Hadjimichael

doi:10.57931/2500385

Title: Navigating Epistemic Uncertainty in the Management of Flash Droughts

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Abstract

Abstract: Flash droughts, characterized by their rapid onset, sharply contrast with the typically gradual development of traditional droughts. These events are triggered by a combination of low rainfall and high evaporation rates, driven by elevated temperatures, making them particularly challenging to predict and prepare for. As a relatively new concept, flash drought is not well understood, which introduces significant epistemic uncertainties regarding their nature and detection methods. This under-detection hinders planners' ability to effectively manage these events. Despite these uncertainties, flash droughts can have significant impacts, raising the question: how can decision-makers prepare for such events given the current knowledge gaps? To address this, we propose a methodological framework aimed at enhancing flash drought preparedness by guiding the selection of appropriate indicators based on their detection capabilities and the decision-makers' level of risk aversion. Our approach involves evaluating six different flash drought indicators and analyzing the level of agreement among them. Additionally, we consider the decision-makers' risk aversion, distinguishing between those who require consensus across all methods (risk-takers) and those who act based on a single method's indication (risk-averse). The insights gained from this study offer a pathway towards more informed decision-making processes regarding flash droughts, potentially mitigating their adversemore »« less

Authors:

;

Pennsylvania State University; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Pennsylvania State University

Publication Date:: Wed Jan 15 04:00:00 UTC 2025

Research Org.:: MultiSector Dynamics - Living, Intuitive, Value-adding, Environment

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Subject:: Decision-making framework; Epistemic uncertainty; climate resilience; drought impact

OSTI Identifier:: 2500385

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.57931/2500385

Citation Formats


                    Gabriela, Gesualdo, and Antonia, Hadjimichael. Navigating Epistemic Uncertainty in the Management of Flash Droughts.  United States: N. p., 2025. 
        Web.  doi:10.57931/2500385.

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                    Gabriela, Gesualdo, & Antonia, Hadjimichael. Navigating Epistemic Uncertainty in the Management of Flash Droughts.  United States.  doi:https://doi.org/10.57931/2500385

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                    Gabriela, Gesualdo, and Antonia, Hadjimichael. 2025.  
"Navigating Epistemic Uncertainty in the Management of Flash Droughts".  United States.  doi:https://doi.org/10.57931/2500385.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/2500385. Pub date:Wed Jan 15 04:00:00 UTC 2025

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@article{osti_2500385,

  title        = {Navigating Epistemic Uncertainty in the Management of Flash Droughts},

  author       = {Gabriela, Gesualdo and Antonia, Hadjimichael},

  abstractNote = {Abstract: Flash droughts, characterized by their rapid onset, sharply contrast with the typically gradual development of traditional droughts. These events are triggered by a combination of low rainfall and high evaporation rates, driven by elevated temperatures, making them particularly challenging to predict and prepare for. As a relatively new concept, flash drought is not well understood, which introduces significant epistemic uncertainties regarding their nature and detection methods. This under-detection hinders planners' ability to effectively manage these events. Despite these uncertainties, flash droughts can have significant impacts, raising the question: how can decision-makers prepare for such events given the current knowledge gaps? To address this, we propose a methodological framework aimed at enhancing flash drought preparedness by guiding the selection of appropriate indicators based on their detection capabilities and the decision-makers' level of risk aversion. Our approach involves evaluating six different flash drought indicators and analyzing the level of agreement among them. Additionally, we consider the decision-makers' risk aversion, distinguishing between those who require consensus across all methods (risk-takers) and those who act based on a single method's indication (risk-averse). The insights gained from this study offer a pathway towards more informed decision-making processes regarding flash droughts, potentially mitigating their adverse effects through better preparedness and response strategies.},

  doi          = {10.57931/2500385},

  journal      = {},

  number       = ,

  volume       = ,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Wed Jan 15 04:00:00 UTC 2025},

  month        = {Wed Jan 15 04:00:00 UTC 2025}

}

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.57931/2500385

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