U.S. Department of EnergyOffice of Scientific and Technical Information
ORION: Operational FoRecastIng Of INduced Seismicity
Abstract
The Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity toolkit “ORION” (ORION) is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit which is geared towards helping operators understand the seismic hazard (i.e., probabilistic assessment of the magnitude and frequency of induced seismic events) at a site. ORION analyzes how the seismic hazard evolves during injection and suggests possible mitigation strategies to employ if an earthquake that exceeds certain threshold is observed. Through its ensemble modeling approach, ORION leverages the benefits of statistical-, physics-, and machine learning-based forecasting methodologies, while reducing the impact of each model’s respective limitations. The ORION toolkit consists of an easy-to-use GUI interface that affords a user as much or as little interaction as desired. Advanced capabilities allow the user to upload local, high-precision earthquake catalogs, projected injection profiles and/or spatiotemporal estimates of pressure/stress, and to tune various model parameters. ORION will then provide a spatial and temporal ensemble forecast of seismicity defined as the probability of exceedance of a given earthquake magnitude over a forecast period. Additionally, ORION will provide probability distribution of the statistically derived maximum possible earthquake magnitude that may be expected. Finally, ORION will provide suggested operational management strategies (e.g. reduce injection volumes at specific wells) based onmore »
- Authors:
-
- National Energy Technology Laboratory
- Publication Date:
- Other Number(s):
- e5be4e0f-d530-4315-b579-bfa6a80009d0
- Research Org.:
- National Energy Technology Laboratory - Energy Data eXchange; NETL
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Fossil Energy (FE)
- Subject:
- NRAP,NRAP Tools,ORION,Operational Forcasting of Induced Seismicity,seismic hazard
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1958726
- DOI:
- https://doi.org/10.18141/1958726
Citation Formats
Kroll, Kayla, and Sherman, Christopher. ORION: Operational FoRecastIng Of INduced Seismicity. United States: N. p., 2023.
Web. doi:10.18141/1958726.
Kroll, Kayla, & Sherman, Christopher. ORION: Operational FoRecastIng Of INduced Seismicity. United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.18141/1958726
Kroll, Kayla, and Sherman, Christopher. 2023.
"ORION: Operational FoRecastIng Of INduced Seismicity". United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.18141/1958726. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1958726. Pub date:Mon Feb 27 23:00:00 EST 2023
@article{osti_1958726,
title = {ORION: Operational FoRecastIng Of INduced Seismicity},
author = {Kroll, Kayla and Sherman, Christopher},
abstractNote = {The Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity toolkit “ORION” (ORION) is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit which is geared towards helping operators understand the seismic hazard (i.e., probabilistic assessment of the magnitude and frequency of induced seismic events) at a site. ORION analyzes how the seismic hazard evolves during injection and suggests possible mitigation strategies to employ if an earthquake that exceeds certain threshold is observed. Through its ensemble modeling approach, ORION leverages the benefits of statistical-, physics-, and machine learning-based forecasting methodologies, while reducing the impact of each model’s respective limitations. The ORION toolkit consists of an easy-to-use GUI interface that affords a user as much or as little interaction as desired. Advanced capabilities allow the user to upload local, high-precision earthquake catalogs, projected injection profiles and/or spatiotemporal estimates of pressure/stress, and to tune various model parameters. ORION will then provide a spatial and temporal ensemble forecast of seismicity defined as the probability of exceedance of a given earthquake magnitude over a forecast period. Additionally, ORION will provide probability distribution of the statistically derived maximum possible earthquake magnitude that may be expected. Finally, ORION will provide suggested operational management strategies (e.g. reduce injection volumes at specific wells) based on the level of hazard.},
doi = {10.18141/1958726},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Feb 27 23:00:00 EST 2023},
month = {Mon Feb 27 23:00:00 EST 2023}
}