U.S. Department of EnergyOffice of Scientific and Technical Information
Demeter calibration and uncertainty analysis (in EN)
Abstract
Demeter is a community spatial downscaling model that disaggregates land use and land cover changes projected by integrated human-Earth system models. Demeter has not been intensively calibrated, and we still lack a good knowledge about its sensitivity to key parameters and the parameter uncertainties. We used long-term global satellite-based land cover records to calibrate key Demeter parameters. The results identified the optimal parameter values and showed that the parameterization substantially improved the model’s performance. The parameters of intensification ratio and selection threshold were the most sensitive and needed to be carefully tuned, especially for regional applications. Further, small parameter uncertainties after calibration can be inflated when propagated into future scenarios, suggesting that users should consider the parameterization equifinality to better account for the uncertainties in the Demeter downscaled products. Our study provides a key reference for Demeter users, and ultimately contribute to reducing the uncertainties in Earth system model simulations.
- Authors:
-
- Joint Global Change Research Institute
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
- Publication Date:
- Other Number(s):
- Proposal ID: 595341001; Instrument ID: 59534001; Upload ID: 715
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- SC-23
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
- Keywords:
- Demeter; parameterization; Uncertainty; Land Use and Land cover change; ESA-CCI
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1505616
- DOI:
- https://doi.org/10.25584/data.2019-04.715/1505616
Citation Formats
Chen, Min, Vernon, Chris R, Huang, Maoyi, Calvin, Katherine V, and Kraucunas, Ian P. Demeter calibration and uncertainty analysis. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.25584/data.2019-04.715/1505616.
Chen, Min, Vernon, Chris R, Huang, Maoyi, Calvin, Katherine V, & Kraucunas, Ian P. Demeter calibration and uncertainty analysis. United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.25584/data.2019-04.715/1505616
Chen, Min, Vernon, Chris R, Huang, Maoyi, Calvin, Katherine V, and Kraucunas, Ian P. 2019.
"Demeter calibration and uncertainty analysis". United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.25584/data.2019-04.715/1505616. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1505616. Pub date:Mon Apr 08 00:00:00 EDT 2019
@article{osti_1505616,
title = {Demeter calibration and uncertainty analysis},
author = {Chen, Min and Vernon, Chris R and Huang, Maoyi and Calvin, Katherine V and Kraucunas, Ian P},
abstractNote = {Demeter is a community spatial downscaling model that disaggregates land use and land cover changes projected by integrated human-Earth system models. Demeter has not been intensively calibrated, and we still lack a good knowledge about its sensitivity to key parameters and the parameter uncertainties. We used long-term global satellite-based land cover records to calibrate key Demeter parameters. The results identified the optimal parameter values and showed that the parameterization substantially improved the model’s performance. The parameters of intensification ratio and selection threshold were the most sensitive and needed to be carefully tuned, especially for regional applications. Further, small parameter uncertainties after calibration can be inflated when propagated into future scenarios, suggesting that users should consider the parameterization equifinality to better account for the uncertainties in the Demeter downscaled products. Our study provides a key reference for Demeter users, and ultimately contribute to reducing the uncertainties in Earth system model simulations.},
doi = {10.25584/data.2019-04.715/1505616},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {4}
}