skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Initial Evidence for Self-Organized Criticality in Electric Power System Blackouts

Conference ·
OSTI ID:14056

We examine correlations in a time series of electric power system blackout sizes using scaled window variance analysis and R/S statistics. The data shows some evidence of long time correlations and has Hurst exponent near 0.7. Large blackouts tend to correlate with further large blackouts after a long time interval. Similar effects are also observed in many other complex systems exhibiting self-organized criticality. We discuss this initial evidence and possible explanations for self-organized criticality in power systems blackouts. Self-organized criticality, if fully confirmed in power systems, would suggest new approaches to understanding and possibly controlling blackouts.

Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (US)
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-96OR22464
OSTI ID:
14056
Report Number(s):
ORNL/CP-104875; TRN: AH200136%%293
Resource Relation:
Conference: Hawaii Int. Conf. on System Science, Maui, HI (US), 01/04/2000--01/07/2000; Other Information: PBD: 4 Jan 2000
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English