Initial Evidence for Self-Organized Criticality in Electric Power System Blackouts
Conference
·
OSTI ID:14056
We examine correlations in a time series of electric power system blackout sizes using scaled window variance analysis and R/S statistics. The data shows some evidence of long time correlations and has Hurst exponent near 0.7. Large blackouts tend to correlate with further large blackouts after a long time interval. Similar effects are also observed in many other complex systems exhibiting self-organized criticality. We discuss this initial evidence and possible explanations for self-organized criticality in power systems blackouts. Self-organized criticality, if fully confirmed in power systems, would suggest new approaches to understanding and possibly controlling blackouts.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Science (US)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-96OR22464
- OSTI ID:
- 14056
- Report Number(s):
- ORNL/CP-104875; TRN: AH200136%%293
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: Hawaii Int. Conf. on System Science, Maui, HI (US), 01/04/2000--01/07/2000; Other Information: PBD: 4 Jan 2000
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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