Adversary Sequence Interruption Model

PC EASI is an IBM personal computer or PC-compatible version of an analytical technique for measuring the effectiveness of physical protection systems. PC EASI utilizes a methodology called Estimate of Adversary Sequence Interruption (EASI) which evaluates the probability of interruption (PI) for a given sequence of adversary tasks. Probability of interruption is defined as the probability that the response force will arrive before the adversary force has completed its task. The EASI methodology is a probabilistic approach that analytically evaluates basic functions of the physical security system (detection, assessment, communications, and delay) with respect to response time along a single adversary path. It is important that the most critical scenarios for each target be identified to ensure that vulnerabilities have not been overlooked. If the facility is not overly complex, this can be accomplished by examining all paths. If the facility is complex, a global model such as Safeguards Automated Facility Evaluation (SAFE) may be used to identify the most vulnerable paths. PC EASI is menu-driven with screen forms for entering and editing the basic scenarios. In addition to evaluating PI for the basic scenario, the sensitivities of many of the parameters chosen in the scenario can be analyzed. These sensitivities provide information to aid the analyst in determining the tradeoffs for reducing the probability of interruption. PC EASI runs under the Micro Data Base Systems'' proprietary database management system Knowledgeman. KMAN provides the user environment and file management for the specified basic scenarios, and KGRAPH the graphical output of the sensitivity calculations. This software is not included. Due to errors in release 2 of KMAN, PC EASI will not execute properly; release 1.07 of KMAN is required.