Node Augmentation Technique in Bayesian Network Evidence Analysis and Marshaling
- Los Alamos National Laboratory
Given a Bayesian network, sensitivity analysis is an important activity. This paper begins by describing a network augmentation technique which can simplifY the analysis. Next, we present two techniques which allow the user to determination the probability distribution of a hypothesis node under conditions of uncertain evidence; i.e. the state of an evidence node or nodes is described by a user specified probability distribution. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of three criteria for ranking evidence nodes based on their influence on a hypothesis node. All of these techniques have been used in conjunction with a commercial software package. A Bayesian network based on a directed acyclic graph (DAG) G is a graphical representation of a system of random variables that satisfies the following Markov property: any node (random variable) is independent of its non-descendants given the state of all its parents (Neapolitan, 2004). For simplicities sake, we consider only discrete variables with a finite number of states, though most of the conclusions may be generalized.
- Research Organization:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- DOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC52-06NA25396
- OSTI ID:
- 993105
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-10-01315; LA-UR-10-1315
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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