A Transferrable Belief Model Representation for Physical Security of Nuclear Materials
This work analyzed various probabilistic methods such as classic statistics, Bayesian inference, possibilistic theory, and Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions for the potential insight offered into the physical security of nuclear materials as well as more broad application to nuclear non-proliferation automated decision making theory. A review of the fundamental heuristic and basic limitations of each of these methods suggested that the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions may offer significant capability. Further examination of the various interpretations of Dempster-Shafer theory, such as random set, generalized Bayesian, and upper/lower probability demonstrate some limitations. Compared to the other heuristics, the transferrable belief model (TBM), one of the leading interpretations of Dempster-Shafer theory, can improve the automated detection of the violation of physical security using sensors and human judgment. The improvement is shown to give a significant heuristic advantage over other probabilistic options by demonstrating significant successes for several classic gedanken experiments.
- Research Organization:
- Idaho National Laboratory (INL)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC07-05ID14517
- OSTI ID:
- 986939
- Report Number(s):
- INL/CON-10-17670
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Evaluation of risk from acts of terrorism :the adversary/defender model using belief and fuzzy sets.
Quantum Graphical Models and Belief Propagation