Determining Interactions in PSA models: Application to a Space PSA

Conference · Tue Jun 01 04:00:00 EDT 2010

OSTI ID:984556

Smith, C; Borgonovo, E

This paper addresses use of an importance measure interaction study of a probabilistic risk analysis (PSA) performed for a hypothetical aerospace lunar mission. The PSA methods used in this study follow the general guidance provided in the NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners. For the PSA portion, we used phased-based event tree and fault tree logic structures are used to model a lunar mission, including multiple phases (from launch to return to the Earth surface) and multiple critical systems. Details of the analysis results are not provided in this paper – instead specific basic events are denoted by number (e.g., the first event is 1, the second is 2, and so on). However, in the model, we used approximately 150 fault trees and over 800 basic events. Following analysis and truncation of cut sets, we were left with about 400 basic events to evaluate. We used this model to explore interactions between different basic events and systems. These sensitivity studies provide high-level insights into features of the PSA for the hypothetical lunar mission.

• Research Organization: Idaho National Laboratory (INL)
• Sponsoring Organization: OTHER
• DOE Contract Number: AC07-05ID14517
• OSTI ID: 984556
• Report Number(s): INL/CON-10-18075
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING
NASA
PSA
RISK ASSESSMENT
SENSITIVITY
importance measure
interactions