Estimating Failure Propagation in Models of Cascading Blackouts

Journal Article · Thu Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 2005 · Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1017/S026996480505031X· OSTI ID:978232

Dobson, Ian ^[1]; Carreras, Benjamin A ^[2]; Lynch, Vickie E ^[2]; Nkei, Bertrand ^[2]; Newman, David E ^[3]

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1. University of Wisconsin, Madison
2. ORNL
3. University of Alaska

We compare and test statistical estimates of failure propagation in data from versions of a probabilistic model of loading-dependent cascading failure and a power systems blackout model of cascading transmission line overloads. The comparisons suggest mechanisms affecting failure propagation and are an initial step towards monitoring failure propagation from practical system data. Approximations to the probabilistic model describe the forms of probability distributions of cascade sizes.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Science (SC)
• DOE Contract Number: DE-AC05-00OR22725
• OSTI ID: 978232
• Journal Information: Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences, Vol. 19, Issue 4
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION
APPROXIMATIONS
MONITORING
OUTAGES
POWER SYSTEMS
POWER TRANSMISSION LINES
PROBABILITY
Security
Dynamics