Assessing processes in uncertain, complex physical phenomena and manufacturing
- Jane M.
- William J.
- Ronald E.
PREDICT (Performance and Reliability Evaluation with Diverse Information Combination and Tracking) is a set of structured quantitative approaches for the evaluation of system performance based on multiple information sources. The methodology integrates diverse types and sources of information, and their associated uncertainties, to develop full distributions for performance metrics, such as reliability. The successful application of PREDICT has involved system performance assessment in automotive product development, aging nuclear weapons, and fatigued turbine jet engines. In each of these applications, complex physical, mechanical and materials processes affect performance, safety and reliability assessments. Processes also include the physical actions taken during manufacturing, quality control, inspections, assembly, etc. and the steps involved in product design, development and certification. In this paper, we will examine the various types of processes involved in the decision making leading to production in an automotive system reliability example. Analysis of these processes includes not only understanding their impact on performance and reliability, but also the uncertainties associated with them. The automotive example demonstrates some of the tools used in tackling the complex problem of understanding processes. While some tools and methods exist for understanding processes (man made and natural) and the uncertainties associated with them, many of the complex issues discussed are open for continued research efforts.
- Research Organization:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- OSTI ID:
- 975991
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-02-0519; LA-UR-02-519; TRN: US201018%%1076
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: Submitted to: PSAM 6, June 6, 2002, San Juan
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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