Implications of Limiting CO2 Concentrations for Land Use and Energy
This paper is the first to simultaneously examine the implications of extending the concept of placing a value on carbon beyond fossil fuel and industrial emissions to all sources, including those associated with land use and land use change. The paper reports a variety of results that have bearing on recent discussions in the literature regarding the role of bioenergy and the indirect emission of carbon through land-use change as well as the burgeoning literature on interactions between bioenergy and crop prices. This paper goes beyond results currently in the literature by using an integrated assessment model to assess energy use and supply, atmospheric composition, land use, and terrestrial carbon in the context of limiting the concentration of atmospheric CO2. We find that when the concept of valuing carbon emissions is extended to all carbon emissions, regardless of origin, that in contrast to a mitigation scenario where only fossil fuel and industrial carbon emissions are valued, deforestation is replaced by afforestation and expanded unmanaged ecosystems; the cost of limiting CO2 concentrations falls; crop prices rise; and human diets are transformed as people shift away from consumption of beef and other carbon-intensive protein sources. The increase in crop prices flows directly from the consideration of land-use change emissions in a comprehensive emissions mitigation program and occurs even in the absence of the use of purpose-grown bioenergy. Finally, we find that the assumed rate of improvement in food and fiber crop productivity (e.g. wheat, rice, corn) has a strong influence on land-use change emissions, making the technology for growing crops potentially as important for limiting atmospheric CO2 concentrations as energy technologies such as CO2 capture and storage.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- OSTI ID:
- 963195
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-63505; SCEHDK; KP1207030; TRN: US200917%%241
- Journal Information:
- Science, 324(5931):1183-1186, Vol. 324, Issue 5931; ISSN 0193-4511
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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