A saturated zone site-scale flow model for Yucca mountain
- Los Alamos National Laboratory
A saturated zone site-scale flow model (YMSZFM) was developed for licensing requirements for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository to incorporate recent data and analyses including recent stratigraphic and water-level data from Nye County wells, single-and multiple-well hydraulic testing data, and recent hydrochemistry data. Analyses include use of data from the 2004 transient Death Valley Regional (ground-water) Flow System (DVRFS) model, the 2003 unsaturated zone flow model, and the latest hydrogeologic framework model (HFM). This model includes: (1) the latest understanding of SZ flow, (2) enhanced model validation and uncertainty analyses, (3) improved locations and definitions of fault zones, (4) refined grid resolution (500-to 250-m grid spacing), and (5) use of new data. The flow model was completed using the three-dimensional, Finite-Element Heat and Mass Transfer computer code (FEHM). The SZ site-scale flow model was calibrated with the commercial parameter estimation code, PEST to achieve a minimum difference between observed water levels and predicted water levels, and also between volumetric/mass flow rates along specific boundary segments as supplied by the DVRFS. A total of 161 water level and head measurements with varied weights were used for calibration. A comparison between measured water-level data and the potentiometric surface yielded an RMSE of 20.7 m (weighted RMSE of 8.8 m). The calibrated model was used to generate flow paths and specific discharge predictions. Model confidence was built by comparing: (l) calculated to observed hydraulic heads, and (2) calibrated to measured permeabilities (and therefore specific discharge). In addition, flowpaths emanating from below the repository footprint are consistent with those inferred both from gradients of measured head and from independent water-chemistry data. Uncertainties in the SZ site-scale flow model were quantified because all uncertainty contributes to inaccuracy in system representation and response. Null space and solution space uncertainties were determined.
- Research Organization:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC52-06NA25396
- OSTI ID:
- 960606
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-08-05474; LA-UR-08-5474; TRN: US1002085
- Journal Information:
- Hydrogeology, Journal Name: Hydrogeology
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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